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The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.
The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places. 
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.
Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
(1/22) Our new paper @NatureEnergyJnl (rdcu.be/cikbq) proposes a solution to break the deadlock in negotiations between #Ethiopia 🇪🇹, #Sudan 🇸🇩 & #Egypt 🇪🇬 on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (#GERD) on the #BlueNile – with help of #solar and #wind power. Thread👇
(2/22) The #BlueNile (Abay) is highly seasonal, with extreme differences in flow between dry and wet months. #GERD’s reservoir is so large it can store the full annual flow & deliver #hydropower at a stable rate throughout the year - suppressing the river flow #seasonality.
