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As I said, I really enjoyed this piece. Noah shows data for a bunch of new "proxies", variables that can help us with quantifying elite overproduction. Some reactions follow.
.@Noahpinion First, I disagree with the (apparent) criticism that my definition of elite overproduction focuses only on the supply -- it is explicitly the issue of balance of supply/demand. In #AgesOfDiscord I always consider both sides of the equation.
@Noahpinion Elite overproduction is always a relative thing, not an absolute one. The whole point is to understand what process generates frustrated elite aspirants, and how their numbers blow up, when supply starts to massively overwhelm demand.
Why the Wealthy Fear Pandemics nyti.ms/2VlURVU
"The current crisis could prompt redistributive reforms akin to those triggered by the Great Depression and World War II"
I hope you are right, Walter, but I fear the opposite will happen -- Coronavirus will increase popular immiseration and, thus, inequality @WalterScheidel
I hope you are right, Walter, but I fear the opposite will happen -- Coronavirus will increase popular immiseration and, thus, inequality @WalterScheidel
And as I argued in #AgesOfDiscord the Great Depression was not the main driver of the redistributive reforms, the spike of violence was. In the past such reforms happened only when the elites were afraid. Which is why I am skeptical about the prospect of such reforms in 2020
A very interesting article, via @WalterScheidel
I've been following the Patriotic Millionaires and I think it is one of the most hopeful signs in an otherwise very gloomy situation. 1/n
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
I've been following the Patriotic Millionaires and I think it is one of the most hopeful signs in an otherwise very gloomy situation. 1/n
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
@WalterScheidel Some great insights in the article include the generational dynamics about which I wrote in #AgesOfDiscord
What this paragraph doesn't stress enough is that the previous generation lived through the turbulent times; the succeeding didn't.
What this paragraph doesn't stress enough is that the previous generation lived through the turbulent times; the succeeding didn't.
@WalterScheidel Because the next generation of elites never experienced what it means to live in a country on the brink of revolution, they felt they could dismantled the social state that was built before WW II. 3/n
The Self-Destruction of American Power by @FareedZakaria
foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-… via @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-… via @ForeignAffairs
I agree with the main premise: "Sometime in the last two years, American hegemony died." But I disagree with Zakaria about why it happened.
The deep structural forces that cased American decline were not external, but internal
#AgesOfDiscord
The deep structural forces that cased American decline were not external, but internal
#AgesOfDiscord
Zakaria asks: "So which was it that eroded American hegemony—the rise of new challengers or imperial overreach?"
My answer: neither.
It was "internal rot". Or, more academically, popular immiseration and elite overproduction leading to intraelite conflict.
peterturchin.com/ages-of-discor…
My answer: neither.
It was "internal rot". Or, more academically, popular immiseration and elite overproduction leading to intraelite conflict.
peterturchin.com/ages-of-discor…
Ross Baker at Rutgers University: “It’s something that I think has only become more intense, more conspicuous, because of the outsize personality and idiosyncrasies of President Trump”
No, it's not just about Trump
peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/g…
No, it's not just about Trump
peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/g…
"But if the effort fails, Congress might careen toward another fiscal showdown in February — and possibly another shutdown."
