Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #agestructured

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An updated 🧡 on our latest report modelling #step4 of the #roadmap on 19th July 2021 πŸ›£οΈπŸͺœ with @_nickdavies @markjit & John Edmunds @cmmid_lshtm πŸ‘©β€πŸ’» (published today) ... #storytime with pictures πŸ“’πŸ“· gov.uk/government/pub…
We were asked to model roadmap #step4 happening on 19th July with:
▢️ different vaccine effectiveness vs. Delta Ξ΄ B.1.617.2
▢️ different transmission levels after step 4

We used the same #agestructured #compartmental #deterministic model as before An image showing the compartments and transitions between di
This time, we ran *a lot* of model fits, shoutout @PushoverApp.

We fitted the transmissibility (TX) of Ξ΄ relative to Ξ± given (central and optimistic) assumptions on vaccine effect πŸ’‰

We also produced model fits w/ combinations of:
🌘 waning immunityπŸŒ–
😣 severity of delta πŸ₯ A screenshot showing the Pushover app with lots of notificat
Read 11 tweets
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧡 on our latest work looking at #step4 πŸͺœπŸ‘©β€πŸ’» and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way A photograph of the West pier and Brighton beach with low ti
We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines πŸ’‰ An illustration of the age-structured compartmental transmis
To capture changes in behaviour (➑️ the amount people mix in the model), we use historic #mobilitydata and make assumptions about what might happen to mobility when policies are implemented, e.g. #step4 πŸ€ We make low, medium and high assumptions to account for uncertainty... ⭐️ Figures showing google mobility data between January 2020 an
Read 11 tweets

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