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Here's why i think #Beergate signals that the Tories are planning a General Election this year, and is the key part of their strategy for winning it. 🧵

1.
IMO the Tories' ideal scenario = Starmer is cleared/not fined. If this happens they can shout "unfair!" and "hypocrite!" forever. And they will.

However, if Starmer IS found to have breached regs, he WILL resign, but Johnson still won't. This will look awful for the Tories.

2.
We'll bitch and moan on Twitter, but ultimately only Tory MPs can force him out.

Most of us will loathe the double standard, but the Boris/Tory stalwarts, for whom Johnson's endless trangressions are priced in, will swallow it.

And now Starmer's gone, and Johnson remains.

3.
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