Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ar7

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In recent #IPCC report, developing countries insisted a disclaimer be highlighted in a separate box. That models "do not make explicit assumptions about global equity, environmental justice or intra-regional income distribution." 🧵

For @carboncopyinfo carboncopy.info/ipccs-climate-…
So what does this disclaimer mean? What are the assumptions underlying modelled emission reduction pathways & why are they not driven by equity-based considerations like burden of energy transition on poorer countries?
Let's start with how models call for a rapid & drastic decline in only one fossil fuel which is primarily used in the developing world i.e. coal. A recent study by @FuelOnTheFire questioned the socio-political feasibility of such pathways & the leeway they provide for oil & gas
Read 10 tweets
Our climate is sneaking into code purple (fifth & final level).

- Methane leaks from below the Antarctic ice sheet (Amery Ice Shelf, Wilkes Subglacial Basin, ...)
- Methane leaks from below the Greenland ice sheet (whole field)
- Methane leaks from the Siberian permafrost (land)
- Methane leaks from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, from the Laptev Shelf & from the Kara Shelf (sea-bed methane near Komsomolets Island & Wiese Island)
- Nitrous Oxide leaks from the Kara Shelf (near Wiese Island, near Komsomolets Island, ...)
- Methane leaks: Thwaites Glacier
- Nitrous Oxide leaks from the banks of Lena River (Siberia)
- Deep waters & surface waters near Nansen Basin are getting warmer very fast (+4°C, +5°C, ...)

We're losing our permafrost at a rate 100 times faster than models are predicting.

@UNFCCC
#AR6
(#AR7)
@COP27
(#COP28)
Read 3 tweets
Sea level rise is about to hit a rate of 2.5 mm a month (proof is coming soon).
96% caused by basal melting below both ice sheets:
4°-6°C warmer at 100m!
Antarctic surface melt is only responsible for 2% of SLR.
Oceans are increasing their contribution (thermal expansion)!

#AR7 ImageImageImageImage
Basal melting:

Warmer & saltier ocean water flowing through channels, fjords, troughs & subglacial lakes is responsible for the rapid warm-up of the Antarctic ice sheet (lower part).

Surface melt:

Draining of supraglacial lakes is causing a destabilization of the upper part. ImageImageImage
Pine Island glacier & Thwaites glacier are facing a rapid warm-up & a rapid salinization of the entire water column in front of their calving field.
Also Cook, Ninnis, Mertz, Frost, Totten, Vanderford, Scott & Denman glacier are facing extreme warm underflows (& Amery Ice Shelf). ImageImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets

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