Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #arabianstorms

Most recents (24)

This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.

Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Here we see Japan again and tropical storm #Nepartak which is on route towards the Olympics.

#Nepartak is a child of #INFA's gyre and you can see an atmospheric river coming from #INFA's outflows which leads directly to her.
This weekly thread is the sequel to the daily threads published April-July in solidarity with the efforts to complete the 2nd filling of the #GERD dam under difficult circumstances.

There hasn't been a clear view of the #GERD in the past week sadly, just a glimpse.
Read 30 tweets
Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.

The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC. ImageImage
#Cempaka is a midget Typhoon (1). Spinning like a top south west of Hong Kong.

Disregarding its size, #Cempaka is directing rain from Hanoi to Taiwan (2). The forecast (3 & previous tweet) shows Cempaka moving west in a loop, but this hasn't started yet. ImageImageImage
Read 31 tweets
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
In honour of the #GERD we will change up the order of today's bulletin and get right to the most important issue, rain over the #Abbay basin, which due to its great quantity and consistency made this possible over such a short time period.
But first a brief explanation, as when it comes to the GERD not all rainfall counts. The first image here shows the path of the #BlueNile / #Abbay from Lake Tana to Khartoum where it meets the White Nile and becomes "The Nile".
Read 40 tweets
The presentation of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst has changed dramatically today with the consolidation of activity over the Arabian Peninsula into a single huge storm which is currently moving into the Red Sea over Makkah and Jeddah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The scale of the storm over Islam's holiest city is huge, larger than France. Two more huge storms loom over the greater region tonight. One on the Iranian Gulf coast and another supercell thunderstorm complex over New Delhi/Rajastan, India, the size of the United Kingdom.
The last six hours in three animations, first India which is experiencing a massive monsoon day today in the north.

[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
Read 30 tweets
Today is possibly the apex of this #ArabianMonsoonBurst which began several days ago now. It's hard to imagine it getting bigger than this.

Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
The animation above is for 12 hours hence the arriving and departing light effect. As always the engine behind this is the Indian Monsoon which you can see here this morning gathering strength.
A close up from the end of today shows how the big storms over #SaudiArabia are generating new atmospheric rivers of moisture, or plumes, over the Sahara, you can see these top right.

[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
Read 39 tweets
The magnitude of #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now apparent. A major storm is about to cross the Red Sea and arrive in the #HornOfAfrica. Behind it are two enormous super-cell thunderstorms.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The rain activity shown in the @zoom_earth animation preceding is only radar based, Saudi radar, and in this case is complementary to the @Meteoblue satellite rainfall estimates you see below. There is likely significantly more rainfall in this than you see here.
Here we see India (the heart of this Monsoon), this morning to 10am East Africa Time. I.E. around seven hours ago.
Read 23 tweets
Today's #ArabianStorms thread took a bit of a detour into looking at today's fatal floods in #Benelux and #Germany, and the causes for the weather pattern that brought them.

Turns out that a #WestAfricaWaterPlume is involved. When it comes to weather we are #AllInThisTogether.
Here we see satellite images for the three days leading up to this. And a close look at this satellite imagery [@zoom_earth] suggests that the the persistence of the storm, which is far from over, is due to it being mainlined tropical water from the West Africa Monsoon.
On @zoom_earth you can watch animations of the satellite data to check this for yourself at this link >>zoom.earth/#view=40.2,-1,…
Read 5 tweets
It's raining cats and dogs in the highlands northern Ethiopia tonight. Across all of Tigray and south into the #Abbay basin which is busy filling the GERD. The #ArabianMonsoonBlast is getting into gear now but it is far from over.

Today's Rainfall forecasts follow.
The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are ultimately responsible for all of this and so we begin with a couple of satellite images of them today. I will post another picture of the #GERD as soon as it reveals itself from under the clouds.
Here's a rainfall map from @Meteoblue which can be followed live at >> meteoblue.com/fr/meteo/curre….

Mekele isn't right under the rain but Aksum and Shire are. Hopefully this will slow down the warriors.
Read 38 tweets
On day 3 of #ArabianMonsoonBlast here's the view over the region tonight. This is definitely bringing rain, and lots of it to both Tigray and #GERD.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's Big Pictures provide a view of the entire planet today in three images.

1. The Atlantic
2. The Pacific
3. Asia

Sometimes its helpful to take a broad view and remember that we are all on this planet together. And that we share the one amazing life giving biosphere.
I found another #MonsoonBurst in the pipeline, this time over the Western Pacific. One which shows very clearly that weird weather is now a universal phenomena in the Northern Hemisphere. And it all started with another Typhoon...

Thread attached...
Read 31 tweets
The full monsoon has now arrived in the #HornOfAfrica. Very intense rain has begun in the Nile Basin and will continue for a week or more.

What will happen in the #MiddleEast is less clear, but it will involve a lot of rain and #ArabianStorms. Today's forecasts follow.
This animation shows the flow of rain bearing clouds heading south west across Pakistan which signals the first phase of an event which will intensify significantly over coming days.
This animation shows under wrapped in pulsating bands of storms headed both East and West. It is this intense period of Monsoon activity which is powering the phenomena that his bringing this rain to Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Read 40 tweets
Since the last rainfall forecast bulletin on Saturday, the forecast West Sahara rainfall burst has come and gone, and the forecast #ME/#HoA rainfall burst is now about to commence.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
First an update on Western Sahara. The peak of the storms came overnight on Saturday morning. Here we see a 6 hour rainfall animation from 2.30am to 8.30am.
And here we see a wider view following sunrise on Saturday morning. If you are curious as to what was forecast Saturday's rainfall forecast thread is quoted below >>
Read 47 tweets
The next two weeks promise to bring astonishing weather to both sides of the Red Sea & across the Sahara. In this weather bulletin I will explain what the models are forecasting.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
In the image above we see part of Arabia and part of the #NileBasin storms - those which feed the Blue Nile/Abbay and the Tekeze basins the source of most of the Nile's flow.
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
The rainfall we see on both sides of the Red Sea comes mostly from the same source - the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, India and South East Asia.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
Read 38 tweets
Two Nile dams joined by nile 100kms apart as seen this morning by @NASA's Modis satellite. [Top right Sudan's Roseires and bottom left the #GERD.]

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's big picture is a dramatic shot of the Sahara at sunset with a massive storm over Mali and a line of clouds from the heart of Algeria's desert south east to Chad. On the right you can see tonight's storms over the #Ethiopia highlands.
The rainfall in the Western Sahara has just started but it has a few more days to run. In this animation of a simulation you see the precipitable water anomaly, which highlights areas which have much more water than normal for this time of year.
Read 18 tweets
As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :

Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?

A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
Read 20 tweets
On day 2 of official #GERD filling we have glimpse through the clouds and what looks like a nearly full GERD lake in a recent photograph taken after the spillways were commissioned this year.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
This morning's rainfall update thread is attached here.

The thread also looks at a major #DesertRain event to the west of the Horn, over Sudan, Chad and Niger where August/September like rains appear to have come early.
Here's an update from this afternoon with satellite estimated rainfall over the last 24 hours showing 14-35mms of rain over the #Abbay basin.
Read 20 tweets
Over 24hrs 25-60mms rain has fallen over all three Nile tributaries with the heaviest falling over the #Abbay in Ethiopia's highlands which feeds the #GERD. Here we see an image of storms starting up this morning.

Rain forecasts will follow.

Thread contains rainfall update.
I jumped the gun calling the beginning of #GERD filling on1 July - as the big rainy season began.
Official news of filling came yesterday in the form of an objection to the filling from Egypt after being notified by #Ethiopia that it is underway.
#GERD filling is expected to be less than 13.5 Billion Cubic Meters as time ran out to raise the dam to the height needed to hold this amount of water.

When the filling is completed spilling over the center of the dam will resume as you can see in this image below from 2020.
Read 25 tweets
Today we open the #NorthAfrica #MiddleEast #HornOfAfrica #GERD rainfall forecasts with some new plots, courtesy of @meteoblue. This first one is a 24 hour estimate of rainfall till 9pm today over Ethiopia.

Green = 1 inch of rain over the #Abo & #Abbay basins.
This satellite data based plots shows estimated rainfall over the last three days of rainfall across North Africa. #DesertRain is falling across all the Sahel. In Sudan and Chad nearly an inch in the past three days.
This one shows a close up over the horn of Africa which shows the rainfall during days 3-6 of the #GERD filling period over the #Abbay basin - where 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen.
Read 29 tweets
2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.

1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.

Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
This @NASA Modis satellite image series zooms in from...

1. The entire Nile
2. Ethiopia
3. #Abbay basin. Can you spot the #GERD?
4. Tigray.
Read 25 tweets
The convective storms over Ethiopia and Sudanese Nile Basins tonight is remarkably intense. Bringing massive amounts of rain across a huge area, including the #Abbay /#BlueNile basin, on the 4th day of #GERD filling.

Today's #HOA #ME and #NorthAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.
In this wider view you can see the full size of today's rain areas which extended deep into Sudan later in the afternoon.
These two images are at sunset the sizes of the two large convective areas, the eastern one extends well north into Eritrea and covers Tigray and the entire #Abbay Basin. The first image provides an idea of size. Each storm area is larger than the UK and Ireland.
Read 29 tweets
Day three of official #GERD filling today in Ethiopia. And a gap in the clouds this morning reveals the GERD lake on the #Abbay river.

Today's #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Here we zoom out a little, the source of the #Abbay/#BlueNile Lake Tana takes pride of place. You can see the #GERD lake in the bottom left hand corner.

These images are from the @NASA Modis Worldview service. Also below a picture of the #GERD from back in January.
Here's today's big picture as ever of the great Sahara Desert. You can see today's #ArabianStorms starting up bottom right, and top left a new rain front coming into Western Europe where the 2021 #EuropeBigWet continues to bring rain and unseasonably mild temperatures.
Read 18 tweets
The big-rains season in Ethiopia is now underway, and today is the second day of #GERD filling. As it was yesterday, today's rains were strong over the #Abbay Catchment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
This animation shows the storms as they began today, fueled by water baring winds from the Indian Monsoon.
Attached thread show's yesterday's forecast report.
In the big picture today we can see yet another day of #ArabianStorms continuing the trend which began in April.

In Europe another big front is bearing down in the North Atlantic as two large storm systems continue to bring significant rains to West, Central & Eastern Europe.
Read 16 tweets
A big day for rains in the #HornOfAfrica and particularly in the #Abbay Basin today, possibly the biggest this year. #GERD

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HoA, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follows.
Here we see a closeup of the storms building this afternoon over the Ethiopia Highlands, including Tigray and Eritrea. As well we can see explosive storms along the Red Sea Coast in Yemen and the Kingdom of #SaudiArabia.
This high resolution satellite image shows the entire Nile Basin this morning, with clouds well north over Sudan as the day began.
Read 22 tweets
Heavy rains fell over the Horn of Africa today as the world turns its attention towards the area, following a tumultuous week since the election last Monday.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
The big picture tonight at sundown. Europe, the Sahara North Africa the Horn and the Middle East. #AllInThisTogether
Today's North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts. The West African Monsoon continues to run strong.
Read 20 tweets
Big day for Nile Basin rains today. The image below [@meteoblue] shows rain at 6pm over the #HornOfAfrica.

The big storm on left is over South Sudan, while the smaller ones on the right are over the Ethiopia Highlands.

Today's Horn, #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow.
Today's big picture shows a Western Sahara plume in the process of creating more significant storms in central Europe. Bottom left you can see today's #ArabianStorms.
These three images show the winds which are bringing the rains to Africa across the Indian Ocean. The first shows the view as of this morning, the 2nd a forecast for the 7th day and the last one the forecast for the 16th day.

Today's winds were strong.
Read 26 tweets

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