Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #asymmetric
Most recents (10)
$SBER up 19x if depositary receipts were purchased <50c and converted plus incoming 200% dividend yield. A little outperformance over 12 months Vs peers group in Europe & US. Another successful #asymmetric theme in play.
Who would have thought the globally best investment theme over the last 12 months would be #Russianstocks (purchased in crashed DRs) that 83% of the world pop didn't sanction?
Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):
Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):
Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Entry on these sorts of multiples with future growth applied has always provided 10-20x returns over 5 years on cycle bottom deployment for a theme.
Thought of the day: Investor Survivability & Opportunity Kit for 2023:
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover
Last night at lows at a few #regionalbanks approached 0.2x book coupled with survivability features = new asymmetric theme
We expect the fear environment to worsen as the recession hits over the next 9 months, hence one must have coverage of all possible outcomes.
- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)
- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment
- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)
- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment
Discussions about #FreeSpeech are misguided in the information age.
Even before our voices are drowned out by the noise on social media, or overwritten by information combatants, we lose our agency and decision autonomy to manipulative complex systems we don’t fully understand.
Even before our voices are drowned out by the noise on social media, or overwritten by information combatants, we lose our agency and decision autonomy to manipulative complex systems we don’t fully understand.
The whole point of the #enlightenment, the scientific revolution, our educational and #epistemic institutions was to empower individuals to find a way out of their self-imposed #immaturity, to take #agency over their lives and make informed decisions.
We need #epistemic clarity about reality, for without it, our agency will be blunted & our freedom a charade
It is public-interest education, journalism & science that truly make individuals in a #democratic society free, not the right to cast a vote or to elect a representative
It is public-interest education, journalism & science that truly make individuals in a #democratic society free, not the right to cast a vote or to elect a representative
⬇️very useful document offering a network perspective on societal ills currently plaguing us.
I am certainly appreciating the insights offered here and fully agree with many of the things outlined.
Please give it a read:
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I am certainly appreciating the insights offered here and fully agree with many of the things outlined.
Please give it a read:
1/
I've been thinking more on a complexity framework to account for the non-linearity of the systems we are part of, as well as emergence and control theory.
But network & graph theory plays an enormous role there as well because complex systems can be abstracted into networks
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But network & graph theory plays an enormous role there as well because complex systems can be abstracted into networks
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The really interesting question is not what framework or models we use to #conceptualize the relationships between society and our broken info spheres, but whether or not they are #useful to understand why we currently experience #democratic backsliding around the world
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Scientists only know how to fight #fictions with facts
And that is a dramatic #disadvantage on social media
My latest article is on the #asymmetric power that keeps the #lableak conspiracy myth alive despite mounting scientific evidence against it
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protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-tw…
And that is a dramatic #disadvantage on social media
My latest article is on the #asymmetric power that keeps the #lableak conspiracy myth alive despite mounting scientific evidence against it
1/
protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-tw…
In the article, I explain why every time a new scientific report from experts comes out on the origins (like today 🔽), a social media machinery kicks into gear to defame & #harass scientists, push counter-narratives & #poison the infosphere
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pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
2/
pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
This is no coincidence, but the inevitable outcome of our broken info sphere & #epistemic crisis.
A crisis where people lose the ability to assess what is real or true.
See, #information has a special function in society it does not only inform our choices and beliefs...
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A crisis where people lose the ability to assess what is real or true.
See, #information has a special function in society it does not only inform our choices and beliefs...
3/
While the #lableak theory is scientifically dead, the lableak conspiracy myth will never die out.
This has everything to do with #asymmetric forces on social media, and the self-serving influencers and information combatants abusing them.
A thread:
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This has everything to do with #asymmetric forces on social media, and the self-serving influencers and information combatants abusing them.
A thread:
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How does one go about when trying to find out what is true in a world segmented by echo chambers and fragmented reality perceptions?
I cannot say that there is a formula, but I can share what steps I took.
When I started, I believed lableak likely..
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I cannot say that there is a formula, but I can share what steps I took.
When I started, I believed lableak likely..
2/
Science is constantly evolving and the scientific literature gets updated when new evidence comes in.
So if you do not want to start out with your intuition, maybe check the status of current scientific literature science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
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So if you do not want to start out with your intuition, maybe check the status of current scientific literature science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
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"We ❤️ #FAANG #monopolists " Beware #Goebbles says :" If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." (Hint: Count how many times we have heard this same #theme, in the same #media, by the same #authors)
2/goe #Economics101: If in an industry, u create a counter to an existing monopoly, u turn it into a duopoly, if u create 2nd counter it becomes an oligopoly. The first step in creating completion. The second step is to create a regulatory system that fosters/promotes competition
3/goe #RegulatoryEc The danger to society from #Asymmetric info & #moral hazard in #Finance was 10x that of goods monopolies, the danger from #SocialMedia & #E-com monopolies is 10x that of Financial collapse! Need 21st C regulations for latter! 🙏🏼don't make it a partisan issue
If the connotation of risk is an intertwined concept and is difficult to quantify, how does a Risk Officer look at it?
Is there any way other than using copula models to determine systemic risk with long tails or a black swan event?
@CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk @SOActuaries
Is there any way other than using copula models to determine systemic risk with long tails or a black swan event?
@CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk @SOActuaries
I guess we are worried about Market and Credit Risks or other interrelated financial risks which can create conjoint loss given events.
Any #Gaussian distribution model will enable you to model and predict potential Operational, Liquidity and Balance sheet AL - (Asset - liability) Mismatch, Market and Credit drove losses under normal market conditions.
Honored to offer #PolicyRecommendations w/ Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity @BakerInstitute—
#HoldTheLine through 2035:
A #Strategy to Offset #China’s Revisionist Actions & Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the #AsiaPacific
bit.ly/HoldTheLINE
#USA #PRC
andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…
#HoldTheLine through 2035:
A #Strategy to Offset #China’s Revisionist Actions & Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the #AsiaPacific
bit.ly/HoldTheLINE
#USA #PRC
andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…
Between now & 2035, imposing costs on strategically unacceptable PRC actions + pursuing defense diplomacy offers a sustainable path to influence PRC behavior & position #IndoAsiaPacific for continued prosperity & growth under a #RulesBased regional system.
bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
The United States should resist yielding strategic principles & position to a People’s Republic of China (#PRC) that is facing increasing constraints on its economic potential, national power growth, & prioritization of competition over citizens’ welfare.
bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
#LFLo Question for #CCPapologists : If #USA is hurt more than #China by #decoupling, why is the PRC Govt pleading with USA every other day, not to decouple?
2/dcpl #CCPapologists
3/dcpl Folks, finally even the #Communist #Emperor of the #Middle #Kingdom with a #mandate from #Heaven is starting to get worried about #Decoupling
