@KariLake

@KariLake

@KariLake

@AbrahamHamadeh

@davesredist

Steven Shepard

@POLITICO_Steve

New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…

Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…

For those keeping score at home, these are the 11 races we think are up for grabs: #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CA49, #CO03, #NY22, #OR06, #WA03.

GOP currently leads in 6, Dems lead in 5. GOP needs to win 3, Dems need to win 9.

Read 4 tweets

RRH Elections

@RRHElections

GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03

The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.

Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.

Read 3 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.

Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079

Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587989886933471233

And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587989886933471233

Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220

Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.

Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653

Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.

Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000

Read 6 tweets

TrumpsTaxes

@TrumpsTaxes

Did you know that:

A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?

B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?

🧵👇

@CheriBeasleyNC

Co-sponsor: TED BUDD

Race: #NCSen

Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…

@ChristySmithCA

Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA

Race: #CA27

Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…

Read 14 tweets

TrumpsTaxes

@TrumpsTaxes

🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇

@VoteVicente

Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…

@RudySalasCA

Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…

Read 31 tweets

Daily Kos Elections

@DKElections

Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03

We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.

AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.

Read 15 tweets

Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Last night, Arizona's independent redistricting commission advanced this finalist congressional map, which will now go to public comment: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

This map creates 5 🔴 seats, 2 🔵 seats, and 2 🟣 seats. The median seat, David Schweikert's #AZ01, is pretty close to the statewide partisan lean, so Dems should be able to win 5/9 if they win statewide. But in a good GOP year, they could win 7/9. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

The map is not kind to Dem incumbents, though. Tom O'Halleran is pretty well screwed, as his #AZ02 becomes R+15. Greg Stanton's #AZ04 would also become a tossup. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

Read 3 tweets

Aseemru

@Aseemru

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/1370268707671343105

Woah. Kirkpatrick+10, Biden+11 seat in 2020. Going to be a different seat next year with redistricting of course, might even shed Cochise County and take in more Pima depending on how things go.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/1370268707671343105

Of course on the other hand it might not change too much at all - these things are still in flux. I think regardless Dems are moderately favored here but the map is consequential.

Kirkpatrick was elected in 2008 by flipping the very large #AZ01. She lost reelection to Gosar in 2010, but then won the redrawn #AZ01 in 2012 and 2014. She ran for Senate against McCain in 2016 and lost, and then moved to #AZ02, flipping the seat in 2018 and holding it in 2020.

Read 3 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair. For reference, the current map (5D, 4R) is below...

@CookPolitical

Even though AZ is gaining a 10th seat, there are a few incumbents at considerable risk of an adverse redraw: #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), as well as Reps. David Schweikert (R) #AZ06 and Debbie Lesko (R) #AZ08. Full analysis at @CookPolitical. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

Republicans will likely push for more *compactness* - including putting Mohave Co. in #AZ01, which could doom O'Halleran (D) as well as creating a new R-heavy #AZ10 anchored by fast-growing Pinal Co., possibly converting 5D-4R to 6R-4D (below).

Read 5 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.

Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:

#AZ01
#GA06
#GA07
#MN02
#NE02
#NH01
#NJ05
#NJ11
#PA17
#TX24
#VA02
#VA07

And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

#FL26
#TX23

Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.

Read 4 tweets

Craig Caplan

@CraigCaplan

In #AZ01, 2nd term Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran defeated his primary challenger former Flagstaff city councilwoman Eva Putzova to advance to the November general election. He won his first election to Congress in 2018 with 53.8% of the vote for Flagstaff area House seat.

2nd term #AZ01 Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran will face Republican primary winner Tiffany Shedd per AP in November general election.

NRCC Chair Emmer on #AZ01: "Tom O’Halleran is a phony moderate who cares more about placating Nancy Pelosi than fighting for desperately needed COVID resources for his district. I look forward to Tiffany replacing Tom O’Halleran in Congress.”

Read 4 tweets

Craig Caplan

@CraigCaplan

House and Senate primaries are being held in 5 states today including in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington.

Arizona GOP Appointed-Senator Martha McSally faces primary challenger Daniel McCarthy today. Winner will likely face Democrat Mark Kelly in the fall election to serve out remainder of the late John McCain’s term until 2022. #AZSEN

In #AZ01, 2nd term Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran faces primary challenger former Flagstaff city councilwoman Eva Putzova.Republicans in the district will also elect nominee for the fall election today.O'Halleran won 2018 election to Flagstaff area House seat w/53.8% of the vote.

Read 16 tweets

Craig Caplan

@CraigCaplan

House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…

@RepGilCisneros

1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan.

@RepDonBeyer

3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties.

Read 59 tweets

Bob

@BOB_1and_only

@BrandNew535

‼️PROGRESSIVES‼️

We must remember down-ballot candidates.

This is a list of progressive/leftist congressional candidates endorsed by at least one of these groups:

@BrandNew535
@BoldProgressive
@justicedems
@pdamerica
@RoseCaucus

#UniteLeft
#Progress2020

Please remember:

⚠️STATE CANDIDATE PRIMARIES MAY BE ON DIFFERENT DATES THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY⚠️

Double check your registration at least 1 MONTH 🗓 before any election you plant to vote in.

Also, endorsements are an ongoing process

Some races have 2 different candidates endorsed by different groups, so they’re both listed.

Legend:
📖➡️ platform/issues link
💵➡️ donation link

If the pinned tweet is related to their campaign, I included it.

Now, onto the (long) list.

Read 83 tweets

Comfortably Smug

@ComfortablySmug

Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.

We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out

@RepOHalleran

HERE THEY ARE

PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.

Tom O’Halleran #AZ01

@RepOHalleran

@TomOHalleran

(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06

@RepLucyMcBath

@LucyMcBath

(202) 225-4501

Read 11 tweets

Amy Kremer

@AmyKremer

#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯

Men & Women! 💃🕺

October 17th @ 10 AM

US Capitol AND Locations across the country!

TrumpMarch.com

#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS

🚨🚨🚨

📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢

@america1stwomen

If you can help organize a district or state protest, pls let us know. 📢@america1stwomen

#AZ01
#GA06
#IL14
#IL17
#IA01
#IA02
#IA03
#ME02
#MI08
#MI11
#MN02
#MN07
#NV03
#NH01
#NJ02
#NJ03
#NJ05
#NJ11
#NM02
#NY11
#NY18
#NY19
#NY22
#OK05
#PA08
#PA17
#SC01
#UT04
#VA02
#VA07
#WI03

Read 5 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

.#ComplicitCongress THREAD:
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.

@RepTerriSewell

#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy

@RepCharlieCrist

#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala

Read 15 tweets

Puesto Loco™

@PuestoLoco

@HouseJudiciary

Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361

@HouseJudiciary

Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965

@HouseJudiciary

Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695

Read 29 tweets

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