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Most recents (24)

So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:

Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).

There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).

Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Read 23 tweets
NEW: How the GOP almost blew the House

Everybody was shocked by the results on Tuesday *but* the GOP’s internal modeling actually showed them back in September that they could lose the House

politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
More nuggets:

Abortion was likely a deciding factor. But NRCC had decided at a polling summit over the summer that they wouldn't respond at all. The group of top strategists ultimately decided to stay focused on the economy.
Highlight of the GOP's night was ousting DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney

And he was *pissed*. One day after conceding, DCCC Chair Maloney defiantly told his staff: “Those motherfuckers wasted a lot of money on me.”

Republicans - mostly CLF - spent roughly $10M to defeat him.
Read 7 tweets
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
For those keeping score at home, these are the 11 races we think are up for grabs: #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CA49, #CO03, #NY22, #OR06, #WA03.

GOP currently leads in 6, Dems lead in 5. GOP needs to win 3, Dems need to win 9.
Read 4 tweets
GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Read 3 tweets
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022 Image
Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.
In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House. Image
Read 22 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779
Read 4 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653
Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852
Read 5 tweets
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07$1,499,784
#ME02$1,350,223
#MN02$1,250,208
#OH13$1,009,066
#CA22$941,557
#PA08$894,614
#PA17$846,908
#TX28$825,989
#NH01$815,750
#CA27$780,526
#WA08$724,356
#NY22$721,327
#CA45$645,465
#VA07$590,931
#NY19$563,935
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17$527,193
#NM02$518,428
#PA07$505,183
#RI02$491,255
#IL17$490,579
#NE02$459,022
#AZ06$458,425
#IA03$421,218
#TX34$408,778
#CT05$401,871
#VA02$370,614
#NJ07$333,561
#MI08$320,974
#WI03$62,744
#CO08$28,296
#PA12$9,200
Read 4 tweets
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.

It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#ME02 $1,348,132
#OH13 $1,228,652
#MN02 $1,090,377
#CA22 $973,825
#WA08 $876,994
#PA17 $848,163
#NH01 $787,150
#CA27 $782,726
#CA45 $778,488
#PA07 $690,861
#NY19 $615,810
#PA08 $572,138
#IA03 $528,673
#NM02 $521,473
#AZ06 $459,696
#NE02 $440,622
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NJ07 $361,411
#MI08 $305,405
#WI03 $302,698
#TX28 $149,853
#TX15 $142,658
#NY17 $112,060
#VA07 $93,710
Read 4 tweets
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211
Read 5 tweets
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155
Read 6 tweets
Very exciting news: Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the 2020 presidential election for all of the new, post-redistricting congressional districts that will be used in the November midterms! dkel.ec/3RG5Qou
Data for all 435 districts is available in a single chart, right here. These #s reflect how the 2020 election *would* have gone under the new lines.

We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
There's an *incredible* wealth of information to be gleaned. This chart, for instance, shows the small number of "crossover" districts: Just 14 Dems represent Trump seats while 15 GOPers sit in Biden seats. This is near historic lows
Read 10 tweets
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Read 31 tweets
#AZ06: Juan Ciscomani takes 48-20 lead with 53% of estimated GOP vote in. For Dems, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel leads state Rep. Daniel Hernandez 61-34 with 65% of estimated vote in. Biden would have won new seat just 49.3-49.2
57% of estimated vote in for #WA03 top-two. Dem Marie Perez at 32%, pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler leads Trump-backed Joe Kent 25-20.
Over in #WA04 top-two, pro-impeachment Rep. Dan Newhouse at 27. Dem Doug White leads Trump's guy, Loren Culp 26-22 for second.
Read 7 tweets
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03
We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.
Read 15 tweets
It’s “Super” Tuesday in 5 states today with Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas and Washington holding Congressional primaries ahead of the fall elections. c-span.org/campaign/?2022… @cspan.org
In Michigan, 2 Democratic incumbents Reps. Andy Levin & Haley Stevens face off today in a primary for same district due to redistricting. And #MI03 Rep. Peter Meijer,one of 10Rs to vote to impeach Trump over Jan. 6th attack,faces GOP primary challenge from Trump pick John Gibbs.
In Washington state, House GOP Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse, both who voted for Trump’s impeachment in 2021 after the January 6th attack, face Trump-endorsed challengers in today’s open primary elections.
Read 7 tweets
THREAD of all the Democrats/Dem groups fundraising off January 6 on the one year anniversary. (1) Rep. Jayapal.
(2) Eric Holder’s group:
(3) Dem Rep. Dean Phillips.
Read 19 tweets
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.

As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.

Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!

However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
Read 7 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair. For reference, the current map (5D, 4R) is below...
Even though AZ is gaining a 10th seat, there are a few incumbents at considerable risk of an adverse redraw: #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), as well as Reps. David Schweikert (R) #AZ06 and Debbie Lesko (R) #AZ08. Full analysis at @CookPolitical. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Republicans will likely push for more *compactness* - including putting Mohave Co. in #AZ01, which could doom O'Halleran (D) as well as creating a new R-heavy #AZ10 anchored by fast-growing Pinal Co., possibly converting 5D-4R to 6R-4D (below).
Read 5 tweets
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ

#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)

Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Read 4 tweets
Getting this thread going on what races to donate to….

Right now, 44 days out, is the best time to donate. A few states are early voting. Voters are paying attention and can still register.

Campaigns can still hire staff and pay for strategic, targeted ads and mailers.
Money thrown at races in Oct goes into media spin. Unclear if it's effective at persuasion.

Millions of $$$ from out of state donors, raised by national orgs, doesn't mean your race is competitive. So it's doubly important for us to pick a few races/states and be strategic.
It's sweet to ragedonate for RBG. But it's smarter to flip the Senate, cement the House majority, and win key states in the electoral college. All states and races aren't equal.

A few thousand $ to a House race or $1 million to an underfunded Senate race can make the difference.
Read 15 tweets

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