Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #az06
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RIGHT NOW: #NY21’s @RepStefanik, #TX15’s @monica4congress, #FL26’s @MarioDB, #AZ06’s @JuanCiscomani, and #FL28’s @RepCarlos kick off Day 2 with a bilingual press conference 
#FL28’s @RepCarlos talks about the need for US to pay more attention to our neighbors in South and Central America
Talking about China as our “foreign adversary” and importance of bringing supply chains back to 🇺🇸
Talking about China as our “foreign adversary” and importance of bringing supply chains back to 🇺🇸
#TX15’s @RepMonicaDLC slamming @PeteButtigieg for his failures, praises @HouseGOP for ending proxy voting and doing oversight of Biden admin
There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
NEW: How the GOP almost blew the House
Everybody was shocked by the results on Tuesday *but* the GOP’s internal modeling actually showed them back in September that they could lose the House
politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Everybody was shocked by the results on Tuesday *but* the GOP’s internal modeling actually showed them back in September that they could lose the House
politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
More nuggets:
Abortion was likely a deciding factor. But NRCC had decided at a polling summit over the summer that they wouldn't respond at all. The group of top strategists ultimately decided to stay focused on the economy.
Abortion was likely a deciding factor. But NRCC had decided at a polling summit over the summer that they wouldn't respond at all. The group of top strategists ultimately decided to stay focused on the economy.
Highlight of the GOP's night was ousting DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney
And he was *pissed*. One day after conceding, DCCC Chair Maloney defiantly told his staff: “Those motherfuckers wasted a lot of money on me.”
Republicans - mostly CLF - spent roughly $10M to defeat him.
And he was *pissed*. One day after conceding, DCCC Chair Maloney defiantly told his staff: “Those motherfuckers wasted a lot of money on me.”
Republicans - mostly CLF - spent roughly $10M to defeat him.
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Very exciting news: Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the 2020 presidential election for all of the new, post-redistricting congressional districts that will be used in the November midterms! dkel.ec/3RG5Qou
Data for all 435 districts is available in a single chart, right here. These #s reflect how the 2020 election *would* have gone under the new lines.
We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
There's an *incredible* wealth of information to be gleaned. This chart, for instance, shows the small number of "crossover" districts: Just 14 Dems represent Trump seats while 15 GOPers sit in Biden seats. This is near historic lows
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
#AZ06: Juan Ciscomani takes 48-20 lead with 53% of estimated GOP vote in. For Dems, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel leads state Rep. Daniel Hernandez 61-34 with 65% of estimated vote in. Biden would have won new seat just 49.3-49.2
57% of estimated vote in for #WA03 top-two. Dem Marie Perez at 32%, pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler leads Trump-backed Joe Kent 25-20.
Over in #WA04 top-two, pro-impeachment Rep. Dan Newhouse at 27. Dem Doug White leads Trump's guy, Loren Culp 26-22 for second.
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03
We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.
It’s “Super” Tuesday in 5 states today with Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas and Washington holding Congressional primaries ahead of the fall elections. c-span.org/campaign/?2022… @cspan.org
In Michigan, 2 Democratic incumbents Reps. Andy Levin & Haley Stevens face off today in a primary for same district due to redistricting. And #MI03 Rep. Peter Meijer,one of 10Rs to vote to impeach Trump over Jan. 6th attack,faces GOP primary challenge from Trump pick John Gibbs.
In Washington state, House GOP Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse, both who voted for Trump’s impeachment in 2021 after the January 6th attack, face Trump-endorsed challengers in today’s open primary elections.
THREAD of all the Democrats/Dem groups fundraising off January 6 on the one year anniversary. (1) Rep. Jayapal.
(2) Eric Holder’s group:
(3) Dem Rep. Dean Phillips.
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair. For reference, the current map (5D, 4R) is below...
Even though AZ is gaining a 10th seat, there are a few incumbents at considerable risk of an adverse redraw: #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), as well as Reps. David Schweikert (R) #AZ06 and Debbie Lesko (R) #AZ08. Full analysis at @CookPolitical. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
