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#Ukraine June 18, updates from @escortert.
in two parts
-> PdS1, Dniepr-Donetsk offensive
-> PdS2, Louhansk-Siversk-Avdiivka areas & Background
Here is the PdS2 for today 👇
1/n
#WarInUkraine D+481 (19/06) PdS2 - Sectors #Louhansk,#Siversk,#Avdiivka & Backstage

The rest of the front, off the offensive, is frozen in a war of positions where 🇷🇺 apply ISIS methods!

Leo court👇
Read 18 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+481 (19/06) PdS2 - Secteurs #Louhansk,#Siversk,#Avdiivka & Arrière-scène

Le reste du front, hors offensive, est figé dans une guerre de positions où les 🇷🇺appliquent les méthodes de Daesh !

Leo court👇
2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez perdu le fil, reprenez-le avec le N°CDLXXX-II de #GuerreEnUkraine 👇

3/n

1/Front du #Louhansk, aucun gain tactique 🇷🇺

(i) Dans le directions #Kupyansk & #Kreminna👇, R.A.S.

(ii)Dans la direction #Svatove,
Dans l’axe de #novoselivske, assaut 🇷🇺repoussé👇

R.A.S. = pas d’offensive, mais des échanges d’artillerie, reco, opés spéc. ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
1/n

#GuerreEnUkraine D+476 (14/06) PdS2 - Secteurs #Louhansk, #Siversk, #Avdiivka & Arrière-scène

🇷🇺 ne renonce pas à son objectif de conquérir le reste du #Donbass et envoie des renforts de la rive gauche du Dniepr

cela ne devait pas finir ainsi...
2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez perdu le fil, reprenez-le avec le N°CDLXXV-II de #GuerreEnUkraine

3/n

1/Front du #Louhansk, aucun gain tactique 🇷🇺

(i) Dans les directions #Kupyansk & #Svatove, R.A.S.

La ligne de front est inchangée👇

R.A.S. = pas d’offensive, mais des échanges d’artillerie, reco, opés spéciales (bref, une guerre de positions) Image
Read 15 tweets
@iltalehti_fi "-länsimaiset '#poliitikot' ”eivät aja omien maidensa etuja, vaan ovat #marionetteja globaalien #eliitti'en käsissä”:
#Zdokumentti eli #SateenkaariSanna
rumble.com/v2sqac2-z-doku…
@iltalehti_fi #Kusetus
@kokoomus
@Demarit
@vasemmisto
@persut
@keskusta
@KDpuolue
@sfprkp
@vihreat
cc: @ odefinn
Johan oli.. meidän onnemme että #Venäjä näkee läpi tuon Suomen valtiovallan kansan kusettamisen, ilman sitä olisimme todella #kusessa.
ImageImageImageImage
@iltalehti_fi @kokoomus @Demarit @vasemmisto @persut @keskusta @KDpuolue @sfprkp @vihreat #Zdokumentti eli #SateenkaariSanna
- "länsimaiset '#poliitikot' ”eivät aja omien maidensa etuja, vaan ovat #marionetteja globaalien #eliitti'en käsissä”: ImageImageImageImage
Read 33 tweets
Iran to become ‘full-fledged’ SCO member in July

The Iranian foreign minister made the announcement from South Africa, where he took part in a ministerial meeting of the BRICS economic bloc thecradle.co/article-view/2…
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian revealed on 1 June that Iran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be completed in July.
thecradle.co/article-view/2…
“We will become a full-fledged member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in July when the next summit of the association is to take place,” he told reporters on Thursday, according to Iran’s state-run Tasnim News Agency.
thecradle.co/article-view/2…
Read 5 tweets
Day 462 of #Europe's war, the last day of May.

Mercifully a quiet morning so far this Wednesday in #Ukraine

This is my 462nd daily thread.
All the info you need about #Russia's attack in one handy thread, updated throughout the day.

You can support me with a coffee (see bio)🙏
If you happen to have missed all yesterday's news, put the kettle on and prepare for a long read!

Here's the link for yesterday's thread on what happened in #Ukraine and #Russia.
#SlavaUkraini

The biggest event overnight happened in #Russia's #Krasnodar region.

Drones hit the Afipsky Oil Refinery and a fire soon took hold, although it's since been extinguished; no-one was hurt.

About 150km from the front, that's less fuel helping Russia kill Ukrainians.
#StopRussia
Read 45 tweets
🌐ANALİZ: Ukrayna Savaşı, sınır ötesine mi geçiyor? Salı sabahı Moskova'yı vuran insansız hava aracı saldırıları savaşta yeni ve korkutucu bir safhaya adım adım ilerlendiğini gösteriyor. 💥

🌐Bugünkü saldırı ilk değil, ama en önemlilerinden; çünkü az da olsa zarar verdi.⬇️ Image
🌐2) Bu tür saldırı denemeleri daha önce de olmuştu. Hatta geçtiğimiz günlerde iha'larla Kremlin binasına dahi saldırıldı. 💥

🌐Ukrayna 🇺🇦, bu saldırıları üstlenmiyor, ancak saldırılardan memnun olduğunu da gizlemiyor ⬇️ Image
🌐3) Son saldırıyı kritik yapan bir diğer gelişme ise İngiltere Dışişleri Bakanı Cleverly'nin Ukrayna'nın sınırlarının ötesinde kendini savunma hakkına sahip olduğunu söylemesi oldu. 🇬🇧🇺🇦

🌐İngiliz Bakan, saldırının hukuki meşruiyeti olduğunu ima etti ⬇️ Image
Read 12 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+461 (30/05) PdS2 - Tous Théâtres hors #Donbass & Arrière-scène

@ZelenskyyUa affirme que la date de l'offensive est fixée...
Certes, mais ce n'est pas pour demain

Visage de l'héroïsme,
Vétéran de #Bakhmut, lieutenant Witch Image
2/n

Cette chronique est dédiée à @CartesDuMonde qui revient bientôt dans la petite communauté francophone de #GuerreEnUkraine

Et... au lieutenant Witch

Tout d'abord, je vous propose de faire connaissance avec cet officier👇qui devient célèbre

abc.net.au/news/2023-05-3…
3/n

Nous allons, sous ses ordres, dès demain, nous former (en bandes dessinées) aux tâches principales des servants de mortier du peloton d'artillerie légère "Witch" du 204e bataillon de la 241e brigade territoriale des Forces Armées d'Ukraine

N'oubliez pas vos treillis !

💙💛 Image
Read 24 tweets
#Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to #Belarus on May 28. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under #Russian operational control. ⬇️ isw.pub/UkrWar052923
2/ The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released a video on May 28 showing a train with S-400 systems deploying to an unspecified area in #Belarus. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under #Russian operational control.
3/ #Russia’s and #Belarus’ Joint Regional Air Defense System (established in 2009 and operational in 2016) effectively subordinates Belarus’ air defense assets to the Russian Western Military District.
Read 4 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+458 (27/05) PdS2 - Tous Théâtres hors #Donbass & Arrière-scène

"Le moment est venu, pour 🇷🇺, de rendre ce qui nous appartient" (#Zaluzhny, CEMA🇺🇦)

L'offensive est imminente

2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez loupé la chronique N°CDLVII-II de #GuerreEnUkraine, la voici👇

3/n

1/ Des nombres et des hommes,

Nouvelle estimation des pertes 🇷🇺 par @bbcrussian 👇
Le comptage est effectué avec des preuves visuelles (avis de décès, tombes des carrés militaires)
24.005 militaires morts recensés

bbc.com/russian/news-6…
Read 20 tweets
#Russia and #Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement #Moscow’s de facto military control over #Minsk. isw.pub/UkrWar052523
2/ #Russia has not yet deployed nuclear weapons to #Belarus and their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage any Russian escalation. isw.pub/UkrWar052523
3/ The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to #Belarus requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Read 4 tweets
Russia and Belarus signed a deal, formalizing the deployment of Moscow’s tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, although control of the weapons remains in the Kremlin.
#Russia #Belarus twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment of shorter-range weapons in Belarus earlier this year in a move widely seen as a warning to the West as it stepped up military support for Ukraine.
#Russia #Belarus
2. It was not announced when the weapons would be deployed, but Putin has said the construction of storage facilities in Belarus for them would be completed by July 1.
Read 7 tweets
May 24 Assessment Highlight:

The #Kremlin continues efforts to portray #Russia as having significant diplomatic partnerships. 1/4

isw.pub/UkrWar052423 Image
#Putin spoke to attendees of the 11th International Meeting of High Representatives for Security Issues in #Moscow on May 24 to deliver rhetoric accusing the West of generating instability & calling on Asian, African, & Latin American states to form a multipolar world order. 2/4
#Putin later attended the Eurasian Economic Forum in #Moscow alongside the presidents of #Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia. Putin also met w/ the president of Republika Srpska (the Serbian political entity w/i Bosnia & Herzegovina). 3/4
Read 4 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+455 (24/05) PdS2 - Théâtres
#Zaporizhzhya
#Crimea
#Russie

1/Des nombres et des hommes, moins
2/Front X, Hyp. Z, plus plus
3/Dniepr, rive gauche & #Crimee, plus ou moins
4/Arrière-scène, moins moins

USS Gerald Ford en 🇳🇴 Image
2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez loupé la chronique N°CDLIV-II de #GuerreEnUkraine, la voici👇

3/n

1/Des nombres et des hommes, moins

#Prigozhin a livré des chiffres de pertes plausibles :
Sur 50.000 prisonniers, il en a fait tuer 10.000
Avec cette ord**e, le ratio de blessés ne saurait être de 3:1, donc je suppose qu'il y en a autant
Ce qui donne 20-25K pertes (50 %) Image
Read 24 tweets
#Putin convened a further meeting in the evening, also attended by Patrushev, but with a smaller group. During the evening meeting, they discussed the situation in the #Belgorod region, #Lukashenko's forthcoming visit and...
1/6 Image
#Armenian PM Nikol #Pashinyan's remarks concerning the prospects for Armenia's negotiations with #Azerbaijan and possible withdrawal from the CSTO. #Putin expressed concern over #Lukashenko's forthcoming visit, which is to take place at his (Lukashenko's) initiative.
2/6 Image
The discussion on this issue took about ten minutes and resulted in the conclusion that #Lukashenko is playing ahead and will be asking for money again while showing that he is alive and well and ready to retain power in the Republic of #Belarus for a long time.
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
1/x
Aktuell läuft eine sehr große, vermutlich gut abgestimmte psychologische und militärische Aktion gegen #Russland. Ob und was dran ist und was daraus entsteht ist unklar!!!
Momentan kann man nach wenigen Stunden noch sagen 👇. Image
2/x
Im Oblast #Belgorod #bilhorod sollen ukrainische Einheiten stehen. RUS Grenzposten wurden vernichtet. RUS soll gerade verzweifelt irgendwelche Einheiten dorthin schicken um überhaupt mal zu sehen was los ist.
3/x eine russische Partisanengruppe soll dort auch sehr aktiv sein.
Read 93 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+450 (19/05) PdS2 - Théâtres
#Zaporizhzhya
#Crimea
#Russie

1/Front X, Hyp. Z, no-fly-zone ?
2/Dniepr, rive gauche & #Crimee, low interest zone ?
3/Arrière scène, #Russie, Stalin is back !

Vyshyvanka
2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez loupé la chronique N°CDXLIX-II de #GuerreEnUkraine, la voici👇

3/n

1/Front X, Hyp. Z,

(i)TDB

🟢Météo
🟢Test de "no-fly-zone", succès
🟠Test & modelage de la ligne de front, généralisé
🟠Préparation dans la profondeur, débuté
•détruire PC, EW, DM, logistique
•effondrer la chaîne du carburant
🟠Opé. déception, débuté
🔴Offensive, Front X
Read 16 tweets
1. Thursday saw #Russian tactical situation worsen around #Bakhmut. Despite #Prigozhin's warnings to the Russian command of the need to reinforce Russian flank at #SakkoiVantsetti, the updated map indicates that Ukraine opened this new line of attack and was already successful. Image
2. The loss of this key position will allow the Ukrainians to move south towards #Bakhmut over very favorable ground. In preparation Ukraine conducted artillery strikes on #Paraskoviika and #Krasnopolivka.
In the south Wagner moved to reinforce the approach to #Klishchiivka with
3. prisoner and mobilized forces that quickly suffered heavy casualties from HIMARS strikes. While the Russian north and southern flanks continue to disintegrate, the Ukrainians have apparently begun a tactic of falling back, out the the area of expected Russian artillery Image
Read 6 tweets
Welcome to Thursday. It's Day 449 of Europe's war.

All the news and analysis from #Ukraine and #Russia in one place. Click and scroll throughout the day, and if you want to check back on what you missed yesterday, here's the link:

#StandWithUkraine

1/2
Another night, another attack on #Kyiv.

It's the 9th multi-missile assault on #Ukraine's capital this month but local officials reort all objects were shot down.

#Darnytskyi, #Dnipro and #Desnyan districts saw falling debris (such as these photos) but no injuries reported: Image
2/2

#Ukraine's air defence says #Russia probably used cruise missiles of the X-101/555 type for this morning's attack on '#Kyiv.

Reconaissance drones were spotted over the capital just before the missiles were launched.

Here's a clip of a reporter in Darnytskyi district
Read 42 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+448 (17/05) PdS1 -Théâtre du #Donbass

La dernière ligne de défense 🇺🇦 dans #Bakhmut est atteinte, au 276è jour de siège
Autour, il n'y a pas eu de percée 🇺🇦, pour l'heure

D'offensive, il n'est toujours point

BM21 Grad 🇺🇦
2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez loupé la chronique N°CDXLVII de #GuerreEnUkraine, la voici👇

3/n

1/segment nord, #Kupyansk-#Svatove-#Kreminna

Dans la direction #Kupyansk,
La préparation d'artillerie puis l'assaut sur #Masyutivka, décrits sur ce fil, ont porté quelques fruits 👇:
#Masyutivka n’a pas été conquise mais 🇷🇺 ont refoulé 🇺🇦 de la zone qu’ils Image
Read 17 tweets
Russian forces continued limited assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 16 and are reportedly deploying additional manpower and equipment from #Belarus to reinforce their positions in #Luhansk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar051623 Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Masyutivka (about 13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Novoselivske (about 16km northwest of Svatove).
3/ Russian milbloggers continued to claim that unspecified elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) captured Masyutivka and pushed Ukrainian forces across the western bank of the Oskil River on May 15.
Read 4 tweets
1/n
#GuerreEnUkraine D+447 (16/05) PdS2 - Théâtres
#Zaporizhzhya
#Crimea
#Russie

1/ Des nombres et des hommes, 152.000
2/Front X, Hyp. Z, 3 triangles et 6 Kinzhal
3/Arrière scène, 0+0=la tête à...

des avions🇫🇷, bientôt des avions🇺🇦 ?
2/n

Mise en abîme,
Machine à remonter le temps,
Si vous avez loupé la chronique N°DLXVI-II de #GuerreEnUkraine, la voici👇

3/n

1/ Des nombres et des hommes,

Le SBU 🇺🇦👇 a estimé les forces de défense 🇷🇺 dans le sud de l'🇺🇦 (oblasts de #Zaporizhia et #Kherson occupés) à 152.000 hommes Image
Read 17 tweets
#Belarus The current Consitution offers these two scenarios:

First, if Lukashenka suddenly dies, the chairperson of the Council of the Republic, Natalia Kachanava, will perform his duties until the new elections. The Council of the Republic is the upper house of the parliament. ImageImage
Secondly, if Lukashenka is killed, a state of emergency or martial law will be declared, while state institutions and officials will follow the decisions of the Security Council. At the same time, the same Kachanava will preside over the meetings of the Security Council. Image
Both scenarios can create a crisis. The chairperson of the Council of the Republic has no real power to influence the government and the lower house of the parliament. She became the "second" person due to the recent changes in the Constitution. Lukashenka might trust her.
Read 5 tweets
#Belarus One of the most odious propagandists, Aliaksandr Shpakouski, wrote that "in the coming years the era of Lukashenka will end", so the continuity of power must be ensured.

What a curious change of rhetoric. The end of Lukashenka's rule is becoming a mainstream topic. ImageImage
In an outburst of "honesty", Shpakouski also wrote that the "war in Ukraine is not going well for our Russian allies". His goal is to provoke fear by saying that the conflict will affect the territory of Belarus if Russia loses. Yet nobody wants to be on the side of losers.
Finally, he wrote that Lukashenka got a cold. Oddly, he immediately added that a "man is mortal", and this mortality can be sudden "but not this time". Nevertheless, the "task is to be able to defend our country even without the president."

Such a courageous piece of writing.
Read 3 tweets

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