Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #b1351
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Nová zpráva o sekvenacích do konce minulého týdne 18.6. z COG CZ je zde:
virus.img.cas.cz/f/report-cogcz… Takže na co jsme tentokrát přišli?
virus.img.cas.cz/f/report-cogcz… Takže na co jsme tentokrát přišli?
takže i nadále převažuje alfa #B117, ale taky tady máme začínající se šířící deltu #B16172 (sekvenace dobíhají postupně cca 14 dní nazad, takže poslední dva sloupečky nejsou úplné a postupně se budou doplňovat data i za dřívější odběry) 
bohužel významně pokleslo množství sekvenací - a to ze dvou důvodů - jeden je dobrý - je méně pozitivních vzorků, ale druhý už tak dobrý není - nadále nejsou vysokým školám sekvenace propláceny což se odrazilo na poklesu sekvenací na BIOCEVu (fialová)
⚠️Confirmed—#DeltaVariant is by far the *most contagious** variant found to date, with a transmissibility that is ~2x faster than older strain. #P1 is 2nd fastest, says @WHO study.🧵
📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster
📍#B1351 #Beta—25%
📍#P1 #Gamma—38%
📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19
📍#B117 #Alpha—29% faster
📍#B1351 #Beta—25%
📍#P1 #Gamma—38%
📍#B16172 #Delta—97% #COVID19
2) “Effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest compared against each other, 64 countries, data until 3 June 2021”
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
Zusammenfassung, was man aktuell über die (in Indien als #B1617.2 beschriebene) #Delta-Variante wissen sollte:
Delta ist wohl nochmals deutlich ansteckender als Alpha (#B117) und führt dadurch in manchen Regionen (Indien, UK) zur starken Ausbreitung. Neue Daten…
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Delta ist wohl nochmals deutlich ansteckender als Alpha (#B117) und führt dadurch in manchen Regionen (Indien, UK) zur starken Ausbreitung. Neue Daten…
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… aus UK zeigen eine >50% höhere „sek. Angriffsrate“. Das heisst, wenn ein mit dem „ursprünglichen Virus“ Infizierter von 100 Kontaktpersonen 10 ansteckte, steckt ein Alpha Infizierter 15 an und jemand mit Delta bereits 23!
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Das Virus hat seine Infektiosität und damit seinen R-Wert also mittlerweile um mehr als das 2-fache gesteigert! Siehe auch „Der Kampf um R“ ⬇️. Wenn bestimmte Umstände zusammenkommen (wieder mehr Kontakte, weil niedrige Gesamt-Inzidenz;…
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🇺🇸米疫学者ディン医師のスレッドを病理学博士のショコラさん
@la_neige_haruki が抄訳したレッド。日本でも50件近くの症例が確認された #デルタ株 #B16172 の感染力、抗体中和の突破力、いずれも脅威的であることのエビデンスが最新のの知見から改めて示される。必読スレッド threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401201…
@la_neige_haruki が抄訳したレッド。日本でも50件近くの症例が確認された #デルタ株 #B16172 の感染力、抗体中和の突破力、いずれも脅威的であることのエビデンスが最新のの知見から改めて示される。必読スレッド threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401201…
尚、このディン医師のスレッドは医学誌「ランセット」に掲載された最新の研究結果を元にしている。WHO指定のVOC（懸念される変異株） #B16172 #デルタ株 と #B1351 #ベータ株 に対して #BNT162b2 ファイザービオンテッック製ワクチンを一回接種した場合と完全接種した場合の中和抗体量の比較だ。
今回のランセット論文により、数日前までWHOが主張していた「感染力が強まっている可能性」や「中和抗体の減少」についても、いずれも事実であることが確認されたことを意味する。しかも今回の調査対象は #東京五輪 参加選手に無償接種されるワクチン。変異株に対する警戒を厳にしなければならない。
“Immune escape” in #DeltaVariant. That’s the latest finding - that #B16172 is as bad for antibody neutralization as the Beta variant #B1351 from South Africa 🇿🇦. 1st dose alone very small effect— 2 doses needed, but weakest against Delta. Let’s walk through evidence 🧵 #COVID19
2) first, @chrischirp says “Now we have a dominant variant that is as bad as Beta for immune escape but much more transmissible.” — she says that because Beta #B1351 (green) was previously the worst neutralization variant. Now it seems #DeltaVariant is even worse.
3) The latest Lancet study also found waning neutralization over time, similar to other variants— but the difference is that #DeltaVariant #B16172 starts from a much lower baseline level to begin with.
How did #India fare? The graphic tells the whole story:
➡️Brutal onslaught by #B16172: having the highest transmissibility & most immune evader of all VOCs with higher virulence?
➡️No support from Vaccination (negligible coverage & high breakthrough, but reinfections rare) 1/
➡️Brutal onslaught by #B16172: having the highest transmissibility & most immune evader of all VOCs with higher virulence?
➡️No support from Vaccination (negligible coverage & high breakthrough, but reinfections rare) 1/
➡️ Social mitigation measures worked! Or the virus ran out of steam? Or still too early to conclude?
➡️ India struggled (significant mortality/health infrastructure collapsed) but survived!! 2/
➡️ India struggled (significant mortality/health infrastructure collapsed) but survived!! 2/
New study on immune escape potential of #B16172 in comparison to #B1351 w/ #BNT162b2 vaccine: More immune evader than even B1351 VOC! Significant loss of antibody neutralisation vs live B16172 (-5.8x, akin to B.1.351) @TheLancet 3/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
#CoronavirusUpdate 2021/6/1🇫🇷仏AFPが新型コロナ変異株のファクトファイルを公開。これまでの変異株をWHO指定の呼称「アルファ」「ベータ」「ガンマ」…で表記。興味深いことに #B16171 「カパ」についてはそこから派生した #B16172 を「デルタ」と表記。これではすぐに24字を使い果たしそうだ。
⚠️Whoa—Pfizer vaccine & #B16172 variant—the founder of BioNTech estimates their Pfizer vaccine to have a weakened efficacy of just 70-75% efficacy against B.1.617.2 variant (via India). A sizeable drop from 95%.
➡️CDC still wants to drop masks? #COVID19
globalnews.ca/video/rd/61f79…
➡️CDC still wants to drop masks? #COVID19
globalnews.ca/video/rd/61f79…
2) To be clear, 70-75% efficacy still good, but it is nothing like 95%, and not enough to stop using masks. A weakened efficacy for a variant also suggests possible reinfection risk as well and likely more break through infections. This is no time to take off masks.
3) there is a good reason UK and WHO are concerned by the Indian origins #B16172 variant. It’s also poised to become the new dominant variant soon in UK
STOP VARIANTS—The AstraZeneca vaccine is ineffective for mild and moderate #B1351 variant from South Africa 🇿🇦. Prior to Oct 31st (before B1351), 75% effective for non-B1351.
Luckily B1351 isn’t fast. We need to stop pandemic & new variants soon. #COVID19 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Luckily B1351 isn’t fast. We need to stop pandemic & new variants soon. #COVID19 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2) Look at the efficacy yourself — it is incredibly low overall 10-20% and not significant (not distinguishable from 0%).
It was only 75% in early part of the trial before #B1351 emerged.
It was only 75% in early part of the trial before #B1351 emerged.
3) Lots of questions about vaccines versus Indian variant #B16172– we just don’t know yet.
But what I worry is if some of the bad variants mix together and do recombination inside of a co infected person with both variants/strains… that could be very bad.
But what I worry is if some of the bad variants mix together and do recombination inside of a co infected person with both variants/strains… that could be very bad.
The WHO declared a coronavirus variant first identified in India, B.1.617, as a “variant of concern,” the agency’s fourth such designation wsj.com/articles/coron…
One can understand the gravity of this announcement: The Indian variant, #B1717 is now clubbed with UK #B117, SA #B1351 & Brazil’s #P1
I think this data is saying "Take B.1.617 very seriously and surge test, contact trace, support isolation of cases & contacts, ring vaccinate - NOW" @chrischirp Look, experts from UK are sounding alert on a variant originated from here! And what was our response?
UPDATE—variants & #COVID19 vaccines—Pfizer vaccine had great efficacy of 89.5% vs #B117 🇬🇧variant & 75% vs #B1351 🇿🇦variant infection with 2 doses.🧵
(Ignore 1 dose efficacy—it didn’t exclude first 14 days post shot—author @Laith_AbuRaddad now clarifies)
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
(Ignore 1 dose efficacy—it didn’t exclude first 14 days post shot—author @Laith_AbuRaddad now clarifies)
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2) To be clear, in the @NEJM article, the authors failed to define 1st dose and didn’t exclude the first 14 days of post vaccination followup. It was not disclosed until someone @supermarioelia asked in a direct written communication. Thus the paper’s 1st dose number too low.
3) For protection against severe disease, efficacy was 100% for 2 doses for the variants, 97% overall for all #COVID19 cases. That’s great.
In aller Kürze– was wir erwartet bzw mindestens erhofft hatten: die Impfung (BioNTech) schützt selbst bei Immunflucht-Varianten wie #B1351 aus Südafrika zu 💯% gegen schwere #COVID19 Erkrankung und Tod!
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Weitere Details: das gilt in dem Maße nur nach vollständiger, also zweimaliger Impfung. Und der Schutz vor milder Erkrankung liegt wie bekannt bei ca 90% (bei #B117) und bei #B1351 bei 75% (Effekt der Immunflucht).
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Aber die grandiose Nachricht ist eben: vollständiger Schutz vor schwerer Krankheit. Das zeigt einmal mehr, wie wichtig die Impfung ist! Passt übrigens gut zum Thema von gestern ⬇️
📍VARIANT TAILORED VACCINE—Moderna announced that a variant-tailored 3rd dose of the NIH-Moderna vaccine greatly boosted antibody levels in volunteers in a new study. The updated vaccine, tailored against the #B1351 variant from 🇿🇦, worked best.🧵 #COVID19 businessinsider.com/modernas-boost…
2) Earlier research, done in petri dishes, suggested the B.1.351 variant was able to partially reduce the effectiveness of leading vaccines, including from Pfizer and Moderna. businessinsider.com/coronavirus-va…
3) How much did the #B1351 variant decrease neutralization from Pfizer and Moderna vaccines? A lot. 20-30x fold drop for Moderna. And 30-40x fold drop for Pfizer - akin to a completely unrelated distant bat coronavirus. While not equal to efficacy, this is a big drop. See 🧵
1 million #COVID19 **deaths** projected in India 🇮🇳 by August 2021. The model even assumes vaccines to will bring it under control by May 17th (peak deaths).
God help us. God help India.
(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)
covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=tot…
God help us. God help India.
(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)
covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=tot…
2) the worse case is 1.04 (95% CI 840k-1.25 mil) by August 1st.
Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil).
Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil).
⚠️TANZANIA VARIANT—One of the most preeminent Harvard virology professors is trying to warn—Tanzanian variant branched off Wuhan 1.0 strain but acquired all the bad mutations of #B117 & #B1351 independently—convergent evolution. By @WmHaseltine. #COVID19
forbes.com/sites/williamh…
forbes.com/sites/williamh…
2) “This is another variant we have to be especially vigilant towards. It may be as infectious and immune evasive as the widespread B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants, in addition to potential reinfection capabilities, as they carry similar mutations”
3) “It also represents why we need more comprehensive variant surveillance around the world. Were this not detected in the Angolan airport, it may have caused havoc in the country and elsewhere.
We do not yet know exactly how dangerous the Tanzanian variant may be.
We do not yet know exactly how dangerous the Tanzanian variant may be.
Le nouveau "double mutant indien" #B1617 augmente fortement au RU, et plus que les autres, et plus vite, comme le sud africain #B1351
Cette augmentation est concomitante de la réouverture des écoles. #COVID19
Et sa dynamique est plus forte que celle du variant UK de base #B117
Cette augmentation est concomitante de la réouverture des écoles. #COVID19
Et sa dynamique est plus forte que celle du variant UK de base #B117
The new “double mutation” variant from India 🇮🇳 #B1617 is surging fast in UK—5x increase in % of #COVID19 cases in just 2 weeks. Same with the South Africa 🇿🇦 #B1351 variant. When did they increase? After schools reopened.
And keep in mind—it’s rising despite high vaccinations.
And keep in mind—it’s rising despite high vaccinations.
2) How does the India variant compare to #B117? It seems to be increasing faster than any other variant in the UK. It’s outcompeting it.
3) I know the variants are getting hard to keep track. But here is a handy shortcut info graphic.
Co-infection is bad news—Scientists in Brazil have identified two cases where people were simultaneously infected with two different variants of #COVID19. Co-infection raises the likelihood of *recombination* admixture that generates more variants. 🧵
cnn.com/2021/03/11/ame…
cnn.com/2021/03/11/ame…
2) According to the study, co-infection raises the possibility of recombination of the genomes of the different strains, which can generate new variants of the coronavirus.
3) "Although there are a few reported cases of reinfection, the possibility of co-infection by E484K adds a new factor to the complex interaction between immune response systems and SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutations," wrote the authors.
May end 2020, I made a video explaining the root cause of the problems associated with #COVID19 , why it became a pandemic but #SARS and #MERS couldn't and why #lockdown was an essential evil to stop the spread.
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When I showed this video to a few friends of mine, some had an opinion that #COVID19 is blown out of proportion as:
1. Deaths are concentrated mainly for 70+ age group(90% of the deaths)
2. Death rate for <50Y is even less than 0.5%
3. Vaccines would be available soon
BUT..
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1. Deaths are concentrated mainly for 70+ age group(90% of the deaths)
2. Death rate for <50Y is even less than 0.5%
3. Vaccines would be available soon
BUT..
🧵2/
💡GOOD NEWS—Moderna expects to have a #COVID19 vaccine booster shot available by the fall adapted for likely the #B1351 🇿🇦 variant. For the past month, NIH has been testing 3rd vaccine doses to enhance Moderna’s efficacy against emerging variants. 🧵 cnbc.com/2021/04/14/cov…
2) Experts hope the new booster shots will help protect against B.1.351, which has been shown to reduce the efficacy of vaccines. Moderna anticipates that annual COVID booster shots will become commonplace, and develop a combination flu and COVID vaccine in the future.
3) The Massachusetts-based biotech firm expects to submit booster shot data to U.S. regulators within a few months, Bancel told CNBC on Wednesday
PAY ATTENTION TO BC🇨🇦—BC now reports “the highest age-specific incidence” in many ages. Teenage age 15-19 cases ⬆️84% in last 3 weeks; 20-29 ⬆️76%; Age 30-39 ⬆️83%. Positivity in ages 10-19 ⬆️~50%. Young adults also carry the most #B117 & #P1 & #B1351. 🧵
bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si…
bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si…
2) Isn’t this a pretty chart? Tell us almost nothing. From out of 10 pages of charts and tables, **zero** figures or tables on the 3 major variants.
Wait til we dig into those number. #bcpoli
Wait til we dig into those number. #bcpoli
3) In the abstract, barely any mention of the 3 key variants of concern... except for this blurb with ZERO context whatsoever...
...until the VERY last paragraph of the 10 page report. #bcpoli
...until the VERY last paragraph of the 10 page report. #bcpoli
VERY WORRIED—Runaway train #P1 variant still uncontrolled in British Columbia 🇨🇦—surging 57% in just 4 days! In contrast, other contagious 🇬🇧variant #B117 only up 17%. #P1 from🇧🇷 is outcompeting #B117 by absolute increase too! BC must act! #bcpoli #COVID19
ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…
ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…
2) #P1 clearly a crisis in BC. But notice it’s relatively new uptick in Ontario and Alberta too. This is a bad sign.
3) it is incumbent on BC Canada 🇨🇦 health leaders (@DrBonnieHenry @adriandix @jjhorgan) to contain #P1 immediately. Or else it endangers not only rest of Canada but also North America and maybe even rest of the world. #P1 is ~2-2.5x more transmissible—the fastest variant to date.
📍The #B1351 🇿🇦 variant’s sudden outbreak in south London continues, now 44 cases. London starting “largest surge testing operation to date”, people who live, work or travel through area getting PCR & biweekly rapid tests. All positive PCR to be sequenced.
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr…
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr…
2) Why a concern? “The strain, named B1351, has been classed a “variant of concern” as it appears to be more resistant to existing vaccines. It carries a mutation, E484K, which helps the virus evade the immunity conferred by past infection or vaccination.
3) “South Africa suspended its use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in February after the results from a small trial in young people suggested the jab prevented only 10% of mild or moderate disease caused by the variant.
Hier ist das Szenario, vor dem ich als Politiker so richtig Schiss hätte.
@cdu, @csu, @spdde, @dieLinke, @Die_Gruenen , @fdp denkt mal nach, ob Ihr das wollt.
@cdu, @csu, @spdde, @dieLinke, @Die_Gruenen , @fdp denkt mal nach, ob Ihr das wollt.
Wir haben einen ganz guten Impffortschritt und Ende Juli haben alle Erwachsenen, die wollen eine erste Impfung. Vielleicht 80%.
Bezogen auf Erwachsene und Kinder sind das dann zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung.
Bezogen auf Erwachsene und Kinder sind das dann zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung.
Die Bundesnotbremse hält bestenfalls die Inzidenz bei 100, darunter gibt es keine Maßnahmen. Die Länder werden nicht weiter senken, das haben sie monatelang bewiesen.
