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#ExtremeWeather Update Thread: Madagascar #Invest96S
The JTWC is now saying there is a "High" probability of #Invest96S will become a TC within the next 24 hours.
The JTWC @USNavy @USNRL website [Here: metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html] remains inaccessible.
The JTWC is now saying there is a "High" probability of #Invest96S will become a TC within the next 24 hours.
The JTWC @USNavy @USNRL website [Here: metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html] remains inaccessible.
@USNavy @USNRL While we do not have a JTWC track forecast yet, we do have a new forecast. the relevant part for #96s is in the 2nd image here and contains reasoning as to why:
"THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
"THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
Here's a current 24h animation of the storm, at the end you see the center of circulation is fully exposed. The storm is moving fairly fast and is being blown westwards by winds which are creating a lot of shear - which prevents development.
Update Thread:
#ExtremeWeather #Madagascar #Batsirai #CycloneBatsirai
Intense Cyclone Batsirai has strengthened rapidly and grown significantly larger. It has now passed Mauritius and its outer bands are now over Reunion.
#ExtremeWeather #Madagascar #Batsirai #CycloneBatsirai
Intense Cyclone Batsirai has strengthened rapidly and grown significantly larger. It has now passed Mauritius and its outer bands are now over Reunion.
Madagascar is 1000kms long top to bottom and #BatsiraiCyclone's outer bands are roughly the same size. With sustained winds of over 113 knots the storm is now the equivalent of a Category 4 Major Hurricane.
The JTWC's latest forecast track update #13 shows the storm maintaining very intense cyclone intensity up to landfall (of the eyewall - maximum strength winds) in the morning on Saturday. Rain and high winds will arrive on Friday.
