Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #bitcoinminers
Most recents (3)
Thought of the day:
We are often wrong....15% for cycle bottoms, but right 85% of the time. Often 50% initial draw downs bag 10x, as the sitting proves out in our favour. We can't be right unless we are wrong in the very short term.
We are often wrong....15% for cycle bottoms, but right 85% of the time. Often 50% initial draw downs bag 10x, as the sitting proves out in our favour. We can't be right unless we are wrong in the very short term.
Theme and Position sizing is key...
Each new asymmetric theme has a 5-7% weighting
Each position within the theme has a 1-2% weighting
Most themes produce 8-13x returns on average
Each new asymmetric theme has a 5-7% weighting
Each position within the theme has a 1-2% weighting
Most themes produce 8-13x returns on average
If we are extremely compelled, which is very irregular, but is aligned with putting the buckets out, we will go to 20% in a theme and up to 5% in a position.
This would be for a repeatable asymmetric theme we have been successful in multiple times in the last 40 years.
This would be for a repeatable asymmetric theme we have been successful in multiple times in the last 40 years.
Assessing the survivability of #bitcoinminers
A) Understand the debt structure, particularly what falls due within the next 18 months
B) Assess the liquidity position today & over the next 18 months
C) Check on operating cashflow positivity at current #Bitcoin prices & lower
1/
A) Understand the debt structure, particularly what falls due within the next 18 months
B) Assess the liquidity position today & over the next 18 months
C) Check on operating cashflow positivity at current #Bitcoin prices & lower
1/
D) What is the end of 1H 2023 liquidity picture like.. (cash+coins-debtpayments-/+6 month cash margin less capex obligations)
...positive margin of safety is required otherwise material dilution and/or bankruptcy becomes a high risk.
....conduct the same exercise yr end 2023.
2/2
...positive margin of safety is required otherwise material dilution and/or bankruptcy becomes a high risk.
....conduct the same exercise yr end 2023.
2/2
Thoughts on potential cashflow recovery for #bitcoinminers
#Bitcoin pricing and sector operating CF margins:
1H 2024 $30,000 17%
2H 2024 $40,000 37%
1H 2025 $60,000 58%
2H 2025 $80,000 70%
1H 2026 $100,000 75%
2H 2026 $120,000 80%
Example: 20 #Bitcoin per day 2H 2025..
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#Bitcoin pricing and sector operating CF margins:
1H 2024 $30,000 17%
2H 2024 $40,000 37%
1H 2025 $60,000 58%
2H 2025 $80,000 70%
1H 2026 $100,000 75%
2H 2026 $120,000 80%
Example: 20 #Bitcoin per day 2H 2025..
1/2
In this #Bitcoin bull run, don't underestimate the added impact on available BTC supply from:
1. #BitcoinMiners ⛏️ aggressively HODLing
2. BTC getting locked up on the #LightningNetwork ⚡️
🧵👇🏽
1. #BitcoinMiners ⛏️ aggressively HODLing
2. BTC getting locked up on the #LightningNetwork ⚡️
🧵👇🏽
NA miners are leveraging capital markets (debt & equity) for equipment upgrades & expansion
Miners have never had so many options (both debt & equity) vs prior halving epochs, alleviating the need to sell #Bitcoin
Building a BTC treasury is a winning capital markets strategy
2/
Miners have never had so many options (both debt & equity) vs prior halving epochs, alleviating the need to sell #Bitcoin
Building a BTC treasury is a winning capital markets strategy
2/
China's mining ban has been a boon to North American miners. Bolstered by the resulting difficulty drop, NA miners have been accumulating record levels of BTC
BUT newly mined Bitcoin are increasingly HODLed by public miners vs sold on markets, contributing to supply squeezes
3/
BUT newly mined Bitcoin are increasingly HODLed by public miners vs sold on markets, contributing to supply squeezes
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