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Reviewed a few preprints on BA.2 immune evasion for a talk. My synthesis:
- BA.1 & BA.2 show similar immune escape from vax
- BA.2 is about as far from BA.1, antigenically, as Beta was from WT
- ppl w prior immunity, then BA.1 infxn, neutralize BA.1 & BA.2 ~equally well
Nerdy 🧵
- BA.1 & BA.2 show similar immune escape from vax
- BA.2 is about as far from BA.1, antigenically, as Beta was from WT
- ppl w prior immunity, then BA.1 infxn, neutralize BA.1 & BA.2 ~equally well
Nerdy 🧵
2/6
I like the "antigenic cartography" model for the variants (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…); I see BA.1 & BA.2 as ~ "antigenically equidistant" from ancestral spike, but kinda far from each other too, similar to the cloud of pre-Omi variants.
But, immunity is complex at this point…
I like the "antigenic cartography" model for the variants (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…); I see BA.1 & BA.2 as ~ "antigenically equidistant" from ancestral spike, but kinda far from each other too, similar to the cloud of pre-Omi variants.
But, immunity is complex at this point…
3/6
Folks whose first view of spike was BA.1 (ie, no prior vax or infection) may only be somewhat protected from BA.2 infection (similar to how Beta evaded D614G immunity). But, people with vax, pre-Omi infection, or both; *then* Omi infection, seem to have far broader immunity.
Folks whose first view of spike was BA.1 (ie, no prior vax or infection) may only be somewhat protected from BA.2 infection (similar to how Beta evaded D614G immunity). But, people with vax, pre-Omi infection, or both; *then* Omi infection, seem to have far broader immunity.
1/ Q: Is it true that #Omicron is less severe than previous variants?
A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.
dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.
dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
2/ We are WAY past due for some good variant news. But pinning our #Omicron hopes on a less virulent variant is not wise for 2 reasons:
1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
3/ 2) Many more infections *even* if less severe can still lead to an avalanche of hospitalizations and deaths, and the risk of long Covid.
@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
