Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #borderpoll

Most recents (6)

Wrote this @IrishTimesOped.
👇
Here's a summary + supporting evidence in the form of a **Mighty Thread** using @ARK_info data 📊 & work with @BenRosher [🙌].

Right so.
Do public opinion, #GE19 & #Brexit make a United Ireland inevitable? 🧐

TL;DR: No.
1/ irishtimes.com/opinion/northe…
@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher Reason why DUP is under pressure isn't due to a general ‘greening’ of NI electorate nor down to any fabled ‘pan-nationalist front’.

They lost because of a pro-#Remain vote coming from unionist voters as well as nationalist ones
+ those who don't identity with either. #Neither
2/
@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc & I argued: "to be Neither Unionist nor Nationalist does not automatically mean you vote for an ‘alternative’ or middle ground party such as Alliance."
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

Neithers vote across the spectrum & –more notably– many don’t vote at all
...Until #GE19?
3/
Read 13 tweets
For the day that’s in it, here’s a thread on #consent.
Or, rather, Consent as it's being referred in the N.Ireland hiccupy-part of the #Brexit process.

@DPhinnemore & I have been working on all of this stuff. Here’s 1 article on it. More to come.

1/15
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/201…
@DPhinnemore We can all agree that consent = a good thing.
& when it comes to post-conflict NI, particularly so.
A history of mistrust & misuse of power means that making laws that work for people of all backgrounds = vital.
It's also important that democratic processes are seen to work.
2/15
@DPhinnemore There is no ‘principle’ of consent in #1998Agreement per se, but it's there in 2 main forms.

The 1st = majority consent.
No change to the constitutional status of NI without it being approved by the majority of people in NI. Hence the provision for a #borderpoll in future.

3/15
Read 16 tweets
Leo Varadkar : If @BorisJohnson means what he says about leaving with a deal, then he will have to depart from what he said this week. #Brexit #MacGill19
@BorisJohnson .@LeoVaradkar says we can't rule out the possibility of an election in the UK. Says the current Irish gov is on its third UK PM. He jokes we may see a 4th.

#Brexit #MacGill19 #MacGill2019
@BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar Taoiseach - A Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop is "essentially buying a bit of time".

Leo Varadkar says any deal without backstop is essentially a no deal.
Read 15 tweets
To summarise results from the @IrishTimes/MRBI poll:

Opinions in NI on #Brexit:
- overwhelmingly reject a hard Brexit; 67% want UK to stay in CU & SM
- wd vote to remain in a 2nd ref
- wd prefer checks on goods btn GB&NI than checks on @BorderIrish.

1/4
irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
Opinions in IRL on #Brexit:
- 54% satisfied with Irish govt handling of Brexit
- but almost equal split on whether should compromise on #backstop
[cf. @skynews poll]
- also split btn those saying checks on goods going to EU wd be preferable to those going across the border.

2/4
On a #BorderPoll:
- rising support for border poll (36% inc 55% of Catholics)
- see graphs below [can't assume preference re: Irish unity on basis of religious denomination]
- in the Republic: 49% say there should be a referendum on Irish unity, & 62% would vote in favour.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
My prediction: if we proceed to a #NoDealBrexit this year, Scotland will have a second #IndependenceReferendum within 6 months, which will succeed. Northern Ireland will have a #BorderPoll within a further 5 years.

I don't want it, but I feel at this point it's inevitable.
It appears that the UK government want to hasten this outcome. Maybe my timeline was too long.

Hmm. Senior Cabinet ministers now thinking the same thing.
bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-po…
Read 4 tweets
Tánaiste Simon Coveney says “we cannot allow one party in Northern Ireland to veto #brexit proposals.” In reference to the DUP. He says DUP accept NI “isn’t Kent or a borough in London.”
.@simoncoveney tells @MarianRTE Sinn Féin’s call for a #borderpoll isn’t helpful and flames fear in unionists. Says Irish gov doesn’t want to threaten integrity of the UK
.@simoncoveney There is no question of a border in the Irish Sea. There must be some checks on goods traveling between two customs areas.
Read 11 tweets

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