Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #brent

Most recents (14)

What’s this week on global & Indian markets?

US equities retain risk-on mode despite most in disbelief (obviously so, when liquidity push not backed by fundamentals pull) while Treasuries gain (risk-balance) appetite and USD undertone shift from risk-off to value-buy mode...1/n
NASDAQ Index lead the equities show leaving Feb’20 high 9838 (and 2019 close 8972) way behind with July high punch at 10824 and S&P500 hold on to top-quartile play of 3130-3393 (building steam for new high), while DJIA in struggle for hold at 27100-29568. Good so far...2/n
Retain view that upside momentum is valid through Q3/2020 & run upto November US Presidential election major event risk. Till then, NASDAQ downside protection is firm above 9850-10000, S&P500 at 3000-3100 (for over 3230) and DJIA at 25000-25350 (pull bias towards 28538)...3/n
Read 16 tweets
#Hilo #OOTT
Cada mancha roja en la imagen es un buque petrolero , los cuales estan quietos por casi todo el mundo.
Se estima que la cantidad almacenada en el transporte marítimo son de 150 millones de barriles, superando el record de 2009 que eran 100 millones de barriles ⬇️
La cantidad almacenada en estos buques petroleros equivalen al 160% de la producción diaria antes de la crisis del covid19 y en mayo podria ser el doble de la producción diaria después de que se apliquen los recortes de la #OPEP ⬇️
Aunque vale decir que la mayor cantidad de crudo almacenado se concentra en los supertanques petroleros (VLCC) con capacidad de transportar hasta 2 millones de barriles cada uno.
La renta de un espacio en un VLCC hasta el 6/Marzo era de 30000USDxdia,hoy es minimo 200.000USD⬇️
Read 4 tweets
✍️Hilo | Me gustaría aclarar lo que pasado en el #petroleo dado que mucha gente lee las noticias y estas informan muy mal de la situación.

El petroleo ha estado negativo es el #WTI (West Texas Intermediate) es producida en USA y no se transporta apenas por mar.
El #CL (Futuro WTI) es más operado debido es negociado por el #CME. Cuando compras un contrato puedes técnicamente recoger los barriles en Oklahoma pero nadie lo hace apenas, solo se utiliza para cubrir la materia prima o especular.
⛔Cuando el vencimiento del contrato se acaba (fecha se cierra, estos productos caducan), si estas largo (comprado) debes cerrar tu contrato, básicamente vender. Si haces "rollover" automáticamente vendes y también compras el siguiente. Diríamos es "renovar" tu posición.
Read 7 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
Read 20 tweets
Oil #Brent #crudeoil WTI vs Brent. Image
1. Most popular grades of oil quality are West Texas Intermediary (WTI) & Brent North Sea Crude (Brent) (sourced from US from Permian basin)
It’s a benchmark for North America
2. Brent is a blend from of 15 oil fields n other in the North Sea. It's 2/3rds of world production. Benchmark for Africa, Europe + Middle East
Read 21 tweets
[thread] Oggi il barile di #petrolio #Wti è stato scambiato, per la prima volta nella storia, a un prezzo negativo. Cosa significa? Succede anche per altre commodity? 1/n #covid19 #coronavirus #restoacasa
Intanto, una premessa: il crollo di oggi (che ha interessato il #Wti ma non il #Brent) ha ragioni molto particolari, forse irripetibili, che dipendono anche (non solo) dagli effetti sull’economia dell’epidemia di #Covid19. Le spiega qui @SissiBellomo: 2/n
Che i prezzi di un bene scendano sotto lo zero è un fenomeno apparentemente controintuitivo. In realtà, sebbene accada poco frequentemente, è meno raro di quanto si possa credere 3/n
Read 13 tweets
#Petrol fiyatları için tarihi bir gün yaşamaktayız. Bir çok şey yazıldığından ve konuya hakim olanlar da kısaca yazdığı için bazı yanlış anlaşılmalar oluyor.

Bu yüzden, pek başvurduğum bir yöntem olmasa da, kısa bir akış ile bir iki noktaya açıklık getirmek istedim.
1) Öncelikle emtia işlemlerini spot ve vadeli piyasalar olarak iki bölümde incelemek gerekir. Vadeli piyasadaki fiyat, normalde spot fiyatı baz aldığı gibi spot piyasadaki fiyat da vadeli piyasadan etkilenmektedir.

Sıra dışı durumlarda ise bu bir fasit daire oluşturabilir.
2) Petrol fiyatı, yeterince açık bir ifade değildir. 150’nin üzerinde türü olsa da en çok işlem görenler #WTI #Brent ve Umman’dır.

3) Fiyatın belirleyicisi arz ve taleptir. Mevcut koşullarda hem arz fazlalığı hem de talep eksikliği olması fiyatı tarihi düşük seviyelere çekmiştir
Read 7 tweets
#WTI petrolün Mayıs vadeli kontratı (-)23$'a kadar düştü.Tabii böyle çarpıcı bir fiyat olunca konuyla alakası olan olmayan herkes ayaklandı.

Petrol stoklarını saklamak için yer kalmadığından kimse fiziki teslimat istemiyor, yarın da kontratın son günü. O nedenle herkes shortladı
Bloomberg Int. haberine göre Teksaslı üreticiler alıcılara ödeme yapmaya bile hazır.

İleriki vadelere bakacak olursak normal fiyatlamalar var fakat tabii ki Mayıs vadeli kontratta çok kişi batmıştır.

#Brent petrol ise %6.5 ekside; 25.5$
1 varil yaklaşık 159 litredir. Haziran vade 22$'dan hesap edersek; 159 litre 152 TL yani petrolün litresi 1 lira bile değil.

Çoğu markette 500 ml su 1.5 liraya satılıyor.

Peki fiyat niye bu kadar ucuz kaldı ve ne zaman düzelecek?

En önemli neden tabii ki talep eksikliği.
Read 8 tweets
#WTI #CrudeOil futures for May,expiring tomorrow,tanked 57%,to $7.98 per barrel

June contract,expiring on 19thMay, traded@ $26.62/barrel

July futures,traded@ $28/barrel

And all this,despite #OPEC's decision to cut supply by 9.7 million barrels a day,wef 1st May2020

#OilCrash
Normally,spread between #Spot &one month forward contract,is 40-50 cents

This time,spread is $10-12,implying weakness in #crudeoil,will continue

Global demand for #Oil in April 2020,was lower by 29 million barrels per day,Vs April 2019

#COVIDー19&global #lockdown, playing out
Indian #Crude basket is a derived basket of #crudeoil comprising #sourcrude(Dubai&Oman)&sweet crude(Brent)

Indian basket,aligned to #Brent crude,has fallen too,but not as much as #WTI crude

April 2020 #Brent@$20.92 per barrel March $32.01
Feb $55.70
Jan 2020@ $63.83

#OilCrash
Read 16 tweets
1) Dm'den #endeks'in neden sarı çizgiyi geçmesi gerektiği hakkında sorular gelmişti, buradan da açıklayayım.
Beni tanıyanlar bilir, fibonacci sayılarına çok önem veririm, bu noktalar kırılmadan asla işlem yapmam.
Aşağıdaki noktaları iyice inceleyin. +++
2) Düşüşlerde çekilen Fibonacci noktalarının Türkçe meali şöyledir.(benim için)
-0,236 ve 0,382 noktalarına kadar yükselen fiyat bu noktaları geçemezse bu yükseliş bir düzeltmedir, düşüşün devam etme olasılığı yükselme olasılığından fazladır. +++
3) Üstteki noktalar geçilirse hedefi 0,618'dir diye diye devam ediyor. O noktalara geldikçe açıklamaları yaparım.
-Bu noktaların haricinde sarı alan uzun süredir destek ve direnç olmuş ve 0,236 ile direnci aynı noktada. İki güçlü direncin olması fiyatın geçmesini daha da +++
Read 7 tweets
Stocks resumed their plunge, wiping out more than $3 trillion in value this week alone, and U.S. Treasuries yields hit record lows on Thursday (27/2) as the #coronavirus spread faster outside China and investors fled to safe havens. #DataNow
More #DataNow:
🔹Global equities have now fallen for six straight days.
🔹Spot #gold rose 0.5% to $1,649 per ounce and #silver gained 1% to $18.03 an ounce.
🔹Gold hit a 7-year high at near $1,688 per ounce on Mon (24/2)

reuters.com/article/us-glo…
#Oil prices slide for fifth day to lowest in a year as #coronavirus fears grow. #Brent crude was down $2.29, or 4.3%, at $51.14 a barrel at 10:31 a.m. ET/ 1531 GMT on Thurs 27/2 - just off the session low of $51.13 a barrel. #COVIDー19 #DataNow reut.rs/2I2baAQ
Read 13 tweets
Sell #WTI puts to corporate hedgers
Sell front month #Brent calls
(short a front month strangle)
EVM option models show short dated options still rich to fair value

Buy 6 month Brent calls

Net short vol to fund exposure to tightening market in 2020
What did I mean by "sell #WTI puts to corporate hedgers"?

Many shale firms are required to hedge per loan terms. In other words, they're forced buyers of puts which overpay for the insurance.

The spike in vol created a great entry point
"Sell front month Brent calls"

Again, the vol spike on the Saudi news created a great entry point to get short the front month while simultaneously buying 6m calls

1m - 6m spread 88th percentile over past year
Read 4 tweets
More details on Abqaiq (as reported by @energyaspects): Attacks caused shut-in of 5.7 mb/d of crude production (58% of current output), 2 bcf/d of gas output (18% of annual average domestic gas sales) and over 0.5 mb/d of ethane and NGLs output (50% of current production). #oott
Attacks damaged parts of 7 mb/d Abqaiq processing facility and another plant that handles output from the 1.2 mb/d Khurais field. Although redundant processing capacity should enable some of the affected output to return quickly, a full restoration will likely take weeks.
Saudi crude contains H2S & must be processed to make it fit for transport through pipelines or processing in refineries. EA understands that at least 1 of 7 stabilisation trains at Abqaiq has been severely damaged while 8-10 of the 18 desulphurisation towers are out of action
Read 10 tweets
1/13 On oil & oil equity prices:

So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
2/13 As shown by Crescat Capital, this is a growth/ETF/momentum market which left commodities at 50 year relative historical lows! @crescatkevin @TaviCosta
3/13 So how do oil prices format?

Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.

However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
Read 13 tweets

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