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These days, one of our 2019 working papers (@kielinstitute) by MEDAM researchers Claas Schneiderheinze & David Benček received substantial criticism from @m_clem, and is now being very much discussed.

A response.

1/6
The MEDAM research links rising #incomes with decreasing #emigration in poor countries thus challenging the causal interpretation of the “migration hump”.

2/6 Image
The critique is fundamental & sounds persuasive. @m_clem criticizes:
1) using annual data gives too much weight to bursts & busts
2) time fixed effects mask long-term econ. progress
3) the empirical setup with absolute emigration, GDP & population leads to spurious results

3/6
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