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In this thread 🧵, let’s crunch some numbers and get intimate with past Gujarat Vidhan Sabha elections. Is the history trying to lead us to some answer? Let’s see…

#Gujarat #Election #GujaratElections2022 #BJP #INC #AAP #Electionresultsanalysis #iChunaav
Despite a very close fight in 1990 between JD (70 seats) and BJP (67 seats), Gujarat was ruled by Chimanbhai Patel’s Janata Dal from 1990-95 with support from @INCGujarat . Ever since the dissolution of JD into INC in 1995, the state turned more or less into a Saffron bastion. iChunaav - Gujarat Vidhan S...
1995 till the last election in 2017, Gujarati’s have given a clear mandate to the BJP. @INCGujarat , ever since, has held second position in every election, although with less than half @BJPGujarat seats at least till 2012 elections. Deeper analysis of 2012 & 2017 follows.
Read 17 tweets
Fascinating to watch Tory Tim Montgomerie on Sky News say that many Conservative MPs who voted for Boris Johnson are intent on keeping him in place for the next 9 months like a meat shield to take as much flak from the #CostOfLiving crisis as possible to protect the next leader
Lib Dems win Tiverton and Honiton with a historic share of the vote,
in a result that is less about the tractor porn of their former Conservative MP,
& more about the wanker of a Conservative PM he had been serving under

No real surprise to see Simon Lightwood take Wakefield for Labour,

but a majority of 4,921 and 48% of ballots cast is still a reasonable win in such a Brexity place (66.4% Leave)

Read 4 tweets
#BiharElection2020 : NDA - 130, MGB - 97, OTH - 16. NDA is heading for a huge win if these trends hold. This has been a stunning turnaround.
Another story of the day that is good news for @BJP4India ..
Gujarat By Polls - BJP leads 7/8
MP - BJP leads 18/28
UP - BJP leads 5/7
And BJP is leading in the seat in Telangana as well by a significant margin. That is huge! #ByElections
Apart from these, @BJP4India is leading in 2/2 seats in Jharkhand and 2/2 in Karnataka. (The Jharkhand margins are a lot narrower than K’taka and could change). And in Odisha BJP is trailing but by a small margin. They are clearly the no 2 party in Odisha and congress is now no 3
Read 4 tweets

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