Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ca27
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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
Dem candidate in #ca27 almost concedes. Big for GOP.
A lot of talk of New York, justifiably. But the GOP winning seats in California that Biden handily carried — by double digits! — will also be what keeps the GOP in majority, if they do.
A lot of talk of New York, justifiably. But the GOP winning seats in California that Biden handily carried — by double digits! — will also be what keeps the GOP in majority, if they do.
If you’re following me, you aren’t surprised by this by now: Smith didn’t net as much as she needed in any of the Los Angeles updates on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. (Of course the ballots will keep being counted.)
But stepping back, this would be one of the biggest failures for Dems this year. (DCCC stepped away from it by end.) Garcia voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election (and he voted against impeaching Trump). And he seems to be surviving in a district Biden won by 13%
I’m going to start this very long 🧵 by saying how absolutely thrilled I am that we’ve held the Senate and a House hold is still likely. Grateful to every American voter who leaned into the responsibility to protect our democracy and freedom! 1/
Sadly though, the path for flipping #CA27 has narrowed significantly and when all the votes are in it’s likely Garcia holds the seat.
Nevertheless, there are lessons to be learned from this race that I’m determined to put on the record…2/
Nevertheless, there are lessons to be learned from this race that I’m determined to put on the record…2/
In the hope that the next Dem who steps up to the plate will be successful.
In many ways, we are victims of our 2018 success in this district. The GOP has now modeled their approach from billboards to field on what Dems did to flip the seat from Steve Knight. 3/
In many ways, we are victims of our 2018 success in this district. The GOP has now modeled their approach from billboards to field on what Dems did to flip the seat from Steve Knight. 3/
wowza at the schedule today
≈7pm ET: Clark, WA could tell us who won #WA03
post-7pm ET: Clark NV could drop any time, tell us who won #NVSen
post-8pm ET: Maricopa will help decipher #AZGovernor
≈10:30pm ET: Washoe NV could get us to the end if Clark hasn't
(+ Cali drops?)
≈7pm ET: Clark, WA could tell us who won #WA03
post-7pm ET: Clark NV could drop any time, tell us who won #NVSen
post-8pm ET: Maricopa will help decipher #AZGovernor
≈10:30pm ET: Washoe NV could get us to the end if Clark hasn't
(+ Cali drops?)
There's more!
≈7-8pm ET: Los Angeles will have an update.
(I guess most suspenseful here is #CA27, tho can't hurt to have more mayor confirmation)
People are telling me to also expect Clark County (!), Oregon (#or05), and maybe Orange & Riverside #CA41) counties & others.
≈7-8pm ET: Los Angeles will have an update.
(I guess most suspenseful here is #CA27, tho can't hurt to have more mayor confirmation)
People are telling me to also expect Clark County (!), Oregon (#or05), and maybe Orange & Riverside #CA41) counties & others.
Sorry, there is no Clark County in Oregon. 🤦♂️
Be patient, please, this is Hour 96 of election night.
Be patient, please, this is Hour 96 of election night.
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
One thing I think may be happening: Late mail used to skew very Dem in west; younger voters dropped or sent very late.
So, we were used to BIG blue shift.
2020 broke that. Pandemic. More Dems voted earlier. So, reduced expectation of big blue shift this year. But could be back?
So, we were used to BIG blue shift.
2020 broke that. Pandemic. More Dems voted earlier. So, reduced expectation of big blue shift this year. But could be back?
Some Dems are facing big deficits in uncalled California districts, maybe too big. But by pre-2020 standards, I wouldn't have deemed it impossible & been watching assiduously. And based on pattern so far in CA+AZ+NV, I think it's worth to keep watching all of these seats.
Per @Taniel's spreadsheet, Republicans have either won or are leading in 220 House districts, with Democrats winning or leading in 215 districts.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
You may recall that in 2018, Democrats gained considerably in competitive House districts once late mail ballots were counted.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
One clue that this California "blue shift" could happen is that Democrats are currently underperforming polls in the Governor/Senate margins statewide.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning
Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.
#Election2022
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
Did you know that:
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
🧵👇
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
🧵👇
Co-sponsor: TED BUDD
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!
#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!
#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
