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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
House Democratic leadership for 117th Congress continue today.3rd term #CA31 Rep Pete Aguilar defeated 3rd full term #IL02 Rep Robin Kelly 148-82 for Caucus Vice Chair,succeeding Katherine Clark who was elected yesterday as Asst Speaker.Aguilar lost to Clark for the post in 2018.
Incoming House Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (CA) following his leadership election: "Under the leadership of Speaker Pelosi and the Biden-Harris Administration, House Democrats will work together..."
House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan.
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties.
Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate.
Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@GregStantonAZ #AZ09 202-225-9888
@RepSwalwell #CA15 202-225-5065
@TedLieu #CA33 202-225-3976
Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@GregStantonAZ #AZ09 202-225-9888
@RepSwalwell #CA15 202-225-5065
@TedLieu #CA33 202-225-3976
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@RepLouCorrea #CA46 202-225-2965
@RepKarenBass #CA37 202-225-7084
@RepZoeLofgren #CA19 202-225-3072
@RepLouCorrea #CA46 202-225-2965
@RepKarenBass #CA37 202-225-7084
@RepZoeLofgren #CA19 202-225-3072
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@JoeNeguse #CO02 202-225-2161
@RepValDemings #FL10 202-225-2176
@RepTedDeutch #FL22 202-225-3001
@JoeNeguse #CO02 202-225-2161
@RepValDemings #FL10 202-225-2176
@RepTedDeutch #FL22 202-225-3001
BREAKING: New @OversightDems report shows how Californians could be impacted by the Trump Administration’s unwillingness to defend people with pre-existing conditions.
SPOILER ALERT: It’s terrible news for A LOT of Californians. More on the report here: bit.ly/2ynhL4v.
SPOILER ALERT: It’s terrible news for A LOT of Californians. More on the report here: bit.ly/2ynhL4v.
In California, if the Trump Administration is successful in its attempts to roll back Affordable Care Act protections, as many as 1,321,000 people could lose federal protections against coverage denials or premium increases, including as many as 78,000 people in #CA33 alone.
If President Trump and Republicans succeed in rolling back pre-existing condition protections, 50,000 #CA33 constituents with pre-existing health conditions are at risk of coverage loss or premium increases. #ProtectOurCare
📌 (1) While we all thought the #PodestaGroup was gone turns out their work only wrapped up at the end of 2017, a recent FARA filing shows they continued work with Hong Kong, Japan, India, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Center for Media Studies at Saudi and anti Qatar PR campaign
(2) Here are the lobbyists who found themselves unemployed at the end of 2017 though if history proves anything surely they’ve moved on to another firm.
(3)While “broke” good old Tony Podesta managed to continue his campaign contributions to @dccc @SenFeinstein while the other lobbyists stayed mostly loyal to all things Democrat.
