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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
NEW: California's near-final draft map looks terrific for Dems. All 42 Dem incumbents (except retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D), whose Long Beach seat is folded in w/ LA Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)'s), get strong seats.
Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)
Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority
Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority
Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
We've got a big one for ya—real big: 2020 presidential results for all 53 of California's congressional districts! dkel.ec/383yVVJ
Three of the most interesting results came in seats Dems won in '18 but the GOP flipped in '20: #CA21, #CA25, and #CA39. Republicans won all three by about 1 pt, but Biden carried each district by around 10 pts, suggesting a lot of ticket-splitting
That wasn't the case in the GOP's fourth flip, #CA48, which Biden carried by 2 but Republican Michelle Steel won by 2. Still an overperformance, but not as dramatic. Both parties will want to study these races to understand the crossover vote
Trump lost Orange County by 8.6 points in 2016 and by 9 points this year. On the surface, that’s not a sizable shift, but underneath a LOT changed.
This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.
This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.
The biggest shifts *away* from Trump: Whiter, wealthier communities of South County. See Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and neighboring cities.
And major shift *towards* Trump: Latino and Asian communities in the west/central parts. See Santa Ana, Westminster, and Garden Grove.
And major shift *towards* Trump: Latino and Asian communities in the west/central parts. See Santa Ana, Westminster, and Garden Grove.
For Democrats, the gradual leftward movement in the traditional GOP strongholds is encouraging. Seeing Mission Viejo turn blue is especially interesting. But Dems cannot ignore the seismic changes in Asian & Latino communities. Westminster went from D+15 to R+9, a 24-pt shift!
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
It's been a terrible day for Dems in uncalled House races:
#CA21: Valadao (R) still ahead by 4,026 votes
#CA25: Garcia (R) retakes lead by 159 votes
#CA39: Kim (R) lead up to 4,160 votes
#IA02: Miller-Meeks (R) now ahead by 40 votes
#UT04: Owens (R) lead up to 1,780 votes
#CA21: Valadao (R) still ahead by 4,026 votes
#CA25: Garcia (R) retakes lead by 159 votes
#CA39: Kim (R) lead up to 4,160 votes
#IA02: Miller-Meeks (R) now ahead by 40 votes
#UT04: Owens (R) lead up to 1,780 votes
Look guys, I've seen enough. Young Kim (R) is well on her way to defeating freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) in #CA39. In an upset, Dems lose an Orange County district Clinton carried 51%-43% in 2016.
Kim (R) just turned in an unreal performance in the Los Angeles Co. portion of #CA39 (Rowland Heights, Diamond Bar, Walnut), zooming ahead of both Trump's '16 share and her own '18 share. I'm pretty curious what happened there.
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)
Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Another vulnerable freshman House Democrat down — Insider and @DecisionDeskHQ project that Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in #SC01 has been defeated by Republican challenger Nancy Mace businessinsider.com/south-carolina…
First-term Democrats who flipped R-controlled seats in 2018 but have conceded their 2020 races/been projected to lose by @DecisionDeskHQ:
-Debbie Mucrasel-Powell #FL26
-Donna Shalala #FL27
-Max Rose #NY11
-Xochitl Torres Small #NM02
-Kendra Horn #OK05
-Joe Cunningham #SC01
-Debbie Mucrasel-Powell #FL26
-Donna Shalala #FL27
-Max Rose #NY11
-Xochitl Torres Small #NM02
-Kendra Horn #OK05
-Joe Cunningham #SC01
Abby Finkenauer in #IA01, Anthony Brindisi in #NY22, TJ Cox in #CA21, and Gil Cisneros in #CA39 are all positioned to also conceivably join the list in the coming days, based on @DecisionDeskHQ results
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
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ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
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facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
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#PostcardsforAmerica
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
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#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
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& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
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Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
& follow @NDLB2020
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
& follow @NDLB2020
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
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facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
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New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)
House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan.
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties.
@realDonaldTrump Here are 9 Republicans you can support right now to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴:
CA07: @BuzzPatterson
CA10: @Ted_Howze
CA21: @dgvaladao
CA39: @YoungKimCA
CA45: @GregRaths
CA48: @MichelleSteelCA
NY22: @claudiatenney
TX07: @WesleyHuntTX
TX32: @gcforcongress
#BlueToRed
CA07: @BuzzPatterson
CA10: @Ted_Howze
CA21: @dgvaladao
CA39: @YoungKimCA
CA45: @GregRaths
CA48: @MichelleSteelCA
NY22: @claudiatenney
TX07: @WesleyHuntTX
TX32: @gcforcongress
#BlueToRed
5 days ago, I tweeted that I was angry.
I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.
President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.
The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.
President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.
The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
In 2018, the democrats flipped California’s 25th Congressional District from red to blue.
Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.
There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.
You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.
There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.
You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
California’s 39th Congressional District is flippable from 🔵🔜🔴.
Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.
docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.
docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
AMAZING news for #CA39 @YoungKimCA winning over Democrat incumbent (with 30 California days to count) keep your eyes on this race #TakeBacktheHouse
In #CA7 @BuzzPatterson has an absolute shot to flip this seat, rally around him, he's awesome! #TakeBacktheHouse
#CA25 learned it's lesson thanks to Katie Hill, 45.6% voted Democrat 52.9% voted Republican, these numbers will probably fluctuate as this district loves to ballot harvest but @MikeGarcia2020 could take it if the party rallies together #FliptheHouseRed
Today, I’m proud to endorse @JoeBiden for President of the United States. From New Castle County Council to the US Senate to the right-hand man of President Obama, Vice President Biden has proven time & time again he has the experience & temperament to unite our country. (1/5)
He has been a tireless champion for working class Americans, an unwavering advocate for affordable healthcare, and a loyal fighter for our veterans, servicemembers, and their families. (2/5)
Whether it’s taking on the powerful gun lobby or protecting DREAMers across the United States, we can count on Vice President Biden to be a voice that represents our values. (3/5)
