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Riverside County's Sunday night update delivers another strong batch for #CA41 Republican incumbent Ken Calvert, the 16,868 votes breaking 55.8%/44.2% for the Republican and boosting him into a 4,066-vote lead of 2.52%.
Calvert's vote share in the five #CA41 updates since election night:
11/10am 63.62% (net +10,077)
11/10pm 60.38% (+832)
11/11 51.55% (+313)
11/12 51.55% (+510)
11/13 55.81% (+1,958)
11/10am 63.62% (net +10,077)
11/10pm 60.38% (+832)
11/11 51.55% (+313)
11/12 51.55% (+510)
11/13 55.81% (+1,958)
(the post-election day returns in the CA41 top two primary followed a similar pattern). 
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
wowza at the schedule today
≈7pm ET: Clark, WA could tell us who won #WA03
post-7pm ET: Clark NV could drop any time, tell us who won #NVSen
post-8pm ET: Maricopa will help decipher #AZGovernor
≈10:30pm ET: Washoe NV could get us to the end if Clark hasn't
(+ Cali drops?)
≈7pm ET: Clark, WA could tell us who won #WA03
post-7pm ET: Clark NV could drop any time, tell us who won #NVSen
post-8pm ET: Maricopa will help decipher #AZGovernor
≈10:30pm ET: Washoe NV could get us to the end if Clark hasn't
(+ Cali drops?)
There's more!
≈7-8pm ET: Los Angeles will have an update.
(I guess most suspenseful here is #CA27, tho can't hurt to have more mayor confirmation)
People are telling me to also expect Clark County (!), Oregon (#or05), and maybe Orange & Riverside #CA41) counties & others.
≈7-8pm ET: Los Angeles will have an update.
(I guess most suspenseful here is #CA27, tho can't hurt to have more mayor confirmation)
People are telling me to also expect Clark County (!), Oregon (#or05), and maybe Orange & Riverside #CA41) counties & others.
Sorry, there is no Clark County in Oregon. 🤦♂️
Be patient, please, this is Hour 96 of election night.
Be patient, please, this is Hour 96 of election night.
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Per @Taniel's spreadsheet, Republicans have either won or are leading in 220 House districts, with Democrats winning or leading in 215 districts.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
The path for Democrats to win the majority could be California - #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 are districts to watch.
You may recall that in 2018, Democrats gained considerably in competitive House districts once late mail ballots were counted.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
If a similar "blue shift" happens again this year, then Democrats could win some of the seats where Republicans are currently leading.
One clue that this California "blue shift" could happen is that Democrats are currently underperforming polls in the Governor/Senate margins statewide.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
Could be a sign that remaining votes skew more Democratic than what's been reported.
But these shifts can be unpredictable.
GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The attack on reproductive rights did not end with the Supreme Court’s decision. Republicans wasted no calling for a vote to ban abortions nationwide.
We can prevent a nationwide ban by electing more pro-choice democrats like Will Rollins to Congress.
We can prevent a nationwide ban by electing more pro-choice democrats like Will Rollins to Congress.
Will's Republican opponent, Rep Ken Calvert, has been part of the war on women's rights for 30 years.
He supported the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade and believes rapists should be able to sue doctors who provide abortions to their victims.
#TruBlue #wtpBLUE
He supported the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade and believes rapists should be able to sue doctors who provide abortions to their victims.
#TruBlue #wtpBLUE
Will Rollins will fight to protect every woman's right to reproductive freedom.
He is endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund, NARAL Pro-Choice America, and CA-NOW.
Let's all chip in and support
@WillRollinsCA for Congress #CA41
▪️ WillRollinsForCongress.com
#TruBlue #wtpBLUE
He is endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund, NARAL Pro-Choice America, and CA-NOW.
Let's all chip in and support
@WillRollinsCA for Congress #CA41
▪️ WillRollinsForCongress.com
#TruBlue #wtpBLUE
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R).
Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
If CA does lose a seat, the commission is likely to axe a seat in slow-growing LA County. But even if it eliminates a Dem-held seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding seats inward, making #CA25 (right) a Biden +20 district - unwinnable for Garcia (R).
One LA district at risk of getting axed: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D)'s #CA44, which was originally drawn as a Black opportunity district and isn't performing. But she's bordered by three Dem incumbents age 79+, and could easily run for one of their seats if one retires.
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!
#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!
#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
