Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ca48
Most recents (24)
NEW from me @TheSpectator:
It's clear that legislation from #SC03's @RepJeffDuncan, #KY02's @RepGuthrie, #AZ09's @RepGosar, and #KY01's @RepJamesComer just forced the Biden admin's hand in a VERY big way.
Let's see what went down this week...
thespectator.com/topic/inside-r…
(1/xx)
It's clear that legislation from #SC03's @RepJeffDuncan, #KY02's @RepGuthrie, #AZ09's @RepGosar, and #KY01's @RepJamesComer just forced the Biden admin's hand in a VERY big way.
Let's see what went down this week...
thespectator.com/topic/inside-r…
(1/xx)
The @HouseGOP launched an all-out war on the remaining Covid vaccine mandates being enforced by the Biden administration. So far they have won some important concessions, but are pushing for more.
thespectator.com/topic/inside-r…
(2/xx)
thespectator.com/topic/inside-r…
(2/xx)
I talked with several key players involved in the legislative battle, which they claim forced the Biden admin to finally declare an end to some of its coronavirus emergency powers later this year. @HouseGOP, however, wants them shut down now.
thespectator.com/topic/inside-r…
(3/xx)
thespectator.com/topic/inside-r…
(3/xx)
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
NEW: California's near-final draft map looks terrific for Dems. All 42 Dem incumbents (except retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D), whose Long Beach seat is folded in w/ LA Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)'s), get strong seats.
Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
Meanwhile, *five* of 11 GOP seats get more vulnerable.
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)
Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority
Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority
Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
We've got a big one for ya—real big: 2020 presidential results for all 53 of California's congressional districts! dkel.ec/383yVVJ
Three of the most interesting results came in seats Dems won in '18 but the GOP flipped in '20: #CA21, #CA25, and #CA39. Republicans won all three by about 1 pt, but Biden carried each district by around 10 pts, suggesting a lot of ticket-splitting
That wasn't the case in the GOP's fourth flip, #CA48, which Biden carried by 2 but Republican Michelle Steel won by 2. Still an overperformance, but not as dramatic. Both parties will want to study these races to understand the crossover vote
Trump lost Orange County by 8.6 points in 2016 and by 9 points this year. On the surface, that’s not a sizable shift, but underneath a LOT changed.
This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.
This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.
The biggest shifts *away* from Trump: Whiter, wealthier communities of South County. See Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and neighboring cities.
And major shift *towards* Trump: Latino and Asian communities in the west/central parts. See Santa Ana, Westminster, and Garden Grove.
And major shift *towards* Trump: Latino and Asian communities in the west/central parts. See Santa Ana, Westminster, and Garden Grove.
For Democrats, the gradual leftward movement in the traditional GOP strongholds is encouraging. Seeing Mission Viejo turn blue is especially interesting. But Dems cannot ignore the seismic changes in Asian & Latino communities. Westminster went from D+15 to R+9, a 24-pt shift!
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%
POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%
CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%
CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Broke: Stories about Obama/Trump voters in Rust Belt diners
Woke: Stories about Clinton 2016->Trump 2020 voters in pho restaurants and taquerias
Woke: Stories about Clinton 2016->Trump 2020 voters in pho restaurants and taquerias
Trump's inroads with Latino voters, especially in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, have been well documented.
It appears that Trump made some pretty significant gains with Vietnamese voters as well.
It appears that Trump made some pretty significant gains with Vietnamese voters as well.
Here's a good article by @terrygtnguyen about pro-Trump Vietnamese voters and the complexities of the community's politics.
vox.com/first-person/2…
vox.com/first-person/2…
Harley Edwin Rouda Jr. is an American lawyer and politician from the state of California. A member of the Democratic Party, he serves in the United States House of Representatives from California's 48th congressional district 1/17 #Congress #CA48 #VoteHarley #Elections2020
“In the middle of a pandemic, the Trump Administration has worked to dismantle protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions, eliminate Medicare, and threaten women’s reproductive rights.” ~ Harley Rouda #CA48 #Election2020 #Congress 2/17
“We need to improve and expand health care coverage — not dismantle it.” ~ Harley Rouda #CA48 #Election2020 #Congress #healthcare 3/17
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Haha! 🤣😂🖕🏼🖕🏼🖕🏼
You guys, Michelle Steele is a wanna be Dana Rohrabacher replacement. Her hubby is close w/ DR. They’re using the lockdown to try to flip this seat back to red. #CA48
Michelle Steele with all the GOP meaningless buzz phrases:
5 days ago, I tweeted that I was angry.
I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.
President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.
The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.
President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.
The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
In 2018, the democrats flipped California’s 25th Congressional District from red to blue.
Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.
There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.
You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.
There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.
You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
California’s 39th Congressional District is flippable from 🔵🔜🔴.
Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.
docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.
docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
Boris Johnson's friend Jennifer Arcuri is sued for $100k in loan debt mol.im/a/7504103 via @MailOnline
@ShannonBrooke01 @Klickedy When your startup is broke on the books, and yet, you're able to loan 700,000 pounds to yourself:
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
I’m getting a lot of this:
“I supported the blue wave and for what? Democrats aren’t living up to their end of the bargain.”
It’s time to dispel the myth that blue wave activism was a down payment on impeachment.
It was not. Zero seats flipped on an impeachment platform. /1
“I supported the blue wave and for what? Democrats aren’t living up to their end of the bargain.”
It’s time to dispel the myth that blue wave activism was a down payment on impeachment.
It was not. Zero seats flipped on an impeachment platform. /1
I get it. This is very frustrating and slow. It seems so obvious. And we expect people to lead on principle, not on politics.
Set aside your frustrations with Dem leadership for a moment and think back to the blue wave districts that flipped red to blue. /2
Set aside your frustrations with Dem leadership for a moment and think back to the blue wave districts that flipped red to blue. /2
I interviewed and published a sizable chunk of Dems who flipped seats in 2018. I asked them explicitly about impeachment. They were across-the-board non-committal. That’s not what they ran on. They ran on healthcare. They ran on voting rights. They ran on the environment. /3
