Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #carecall
Most recents (17)
Now that the #CARecall has collapsed and Larry Elder has lost overwhelmingly, let's talk about the history and future of CA Republicans (1/n)
First thing to remember is that like all Western states, California was historically Republican. This was true all the way through most of the 20th century. The only two presidents from CA were GOP, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.
The future looks bleak for CA Republicans but it has been visible for decades, beginning in the 1990s when the state GOP ran ad campaigns trying to hit typical right wing fear campaigns of religion and immigration. They backfired though and actually drove voters away.
#CARecall As we wait for precinct-level data to report some first looks at county level trends in Democratic vote -- Orange County currently 58% NO, it's highest Democratic vote in modern times, 8 points higher than Newsom 2018 
#CARecall in conservative Kerns County (Bakersfield) the No on Recall is nearly 4 points MORE Democratic than the 2018 Newsom-Cox vote and currently exceeds Biden 20 margin by 1 point.
#CARecall county data in #InlandEmpire Riverside County shows current No on Recall vote at 54% exceeding the 49.8% which Newsom received in 2018
"No" wins and Gov. Gavin Newson will SURVIVE the recall, @thisisinsider and @DecisionDeskHQ project #CARecall businessinsider.com/california-gov…
@thisisinsider @DecisionDeskHQ Another #CARecall winner: CA election officials and ballot pre-processing! 8.2 million votes (estimated 3/5 of the total cast) on the first ballot question in a little over an hour after polls close — pretty amazing for an almost-all vote by mail election businessinsider.com/california-gov…
@thisisinsider @DecisionDeskHQ What she said:
I'm going to start here with this political disinfo pattern. It's important to understand that this is exactly how stop the steal started as a hashtag in the 2016 election and then landing at #J6
let me finish my thoughts on this before I continue my data mining.
“there might very well be shenanigans, as there were in the 2020 election.” His campaign website has a link to a “Stop CA Fraud” website.
we all know there was no fraud. yet this is what Elder said
“there might very well be shenanigans, as there were in the 2020 election.” His campaign website has a link to a “Stop CA Fraud” website.
we all know there was no fraud. yet this is what Elder said
Here's the part that no one seems to get. If you pre-planning a loss by saying your opponent stole it. There are several things happening. 1. You are a sore loser 2. You clearly know you can't win and aren't telling your supporters tho your internal polling tells you differently.
#CARecallElection facts:
✅California’s voting system standards & testing requirements are some of the strongest in the nation.
✅ CA requires voter-verified paper ballots. Ballots are optically scanned & digitally counted. The counts are verified through post-election audits.
✅California’s voting system standards & testing requirements are some of the strongest in the nation.
✅ CA requires voter-verified paper ballots. Ballots are optically scanned & digitally counted. The counts are verified through post-election audits.
✅ Every county must select a subset of their ballots (1% of their precincts) at random & tally the votes on those ballots, then compare them to the software-counted votes to verify they match. This is a public process that anyone can observe upon request. #CARecall
✅ Independent testers working through the CA Secretary of State’s office conduct voting system source code reviews, & volume, functionality, accessibility, & security tests before voting systems are certified. #CARecall
On the eve of #CARecall, we can probably say that this race is safe D, because there is genuinely a < 5% chance Newsom loses tomorrow. It would take a polling error of a magnitude large enough to end the industry in California altogether.
My prediction is Remain +21 (with a rather high error range — nothing from Remain +15 to Remain +23 would surprise me), but we probably won’t know the full results for a while. But the race should probably be called tomorrow night. I’d be surprised if it isn’t.
(someone better catch the Brexit meme here)
NBC's Jacob Soboroff tore into Gov. Newsom tonight's Nightly News. He called out the Governor's dishonest smears of the recall by pointing out how Democrats have led the state for 10 years and poverty exploded. He also spoke to an independent who became Republican to vote him out
In sharp contrast, ABC's Matt Gutman brushed aside Newsom's COVID hypocrisy and tried to stoke fear of Larry Elder. "He opposes the minimum wage, has called climate change a myth, and wants to roll back many of the state's COVID restrictions, " he warned.
And for CBS's part, Major Garrett also downplayed Newsom's COVID hypocrisy but parroted Newsom's campaign talking points cautioning would-be recall voters that Larry Elder was just like Trump. And actually boasted about how Newsom was trying to link the two.
Larry Elder isn’t the reason #CArecall looks poised to fail by double digits.
California is a Biden +29, full VBM state. We’ve seen time and again that partisanship of a state tends to revert as election time nears and undecideds realize they like their party and the status quo.
California is a Biden +29, full VBM state. We’ve seen time and again that partisanship of a state tends to revert as election time nears and undecideds realize they like their party and the status quo.
If it wasn’t Larry Elder running, Dems would have found some other good angle. It would have been closer, maybe, but still would be poised to be a comfortable win for Newsom. Faulconer’s not as independent of Trump as people think, and CA Dems would have hammered him on it too.
Also finding it kind of funny that pundits are now saying “well if it wasn’t for Larry Elder…man, Rs messed it up”
That’s who the GOP want! That’s the type of candidate they nominate in so many primaries. Why is this any different? Why is this thought of as an outlier? It’s not
That’s who the GOP want! That’s the type of candidate they nominate in so many primaries. Why is this any different? Why is this thought of as an outlier? It’s not
If I had to take a guess at the #CARecall margin, I’d probably say No wins by 17, based on the available evidence. There’s been some very serious late movement towards Newsom and it’ll take a Herculean lift and a massive polling error for Yes to have a whiff of a chance here.
And once again, it was exceptionally smart of Newsom’s camp to not field a replacement candidate. That’s the only way you keep the Democrats all in line, and if you do that, recall gets squashed.
Anyways, if that does happen, Newsom would emerge stronger than ever before, because the press insistence on making it a horse race would backfire badly and cost the CA GOP their best 2022 candidate in Faulconer, and Newsom would have overperformed public expectations by a lot.
Thread: Who is funding the #CARecall effort to get rid of Gavin Newsom? Luxury real estate developers, radical Christian supremacists, and hedge fund fat cats.
Please join me down the rabbit hole and share, if you wouldn't mind.
Please join me down the rabbit hole and share, if you wouldn't mind.
The biggest donor to the #CaliforniaRecallElection effort against Newsom is Geoff Palmer. He's a luxury condo developer who hates Newsom's plans to make more affordable housing in CA.
Palmer has donated $1.2 million ladowntownnews.com/news/geoff-pal…
Palmer has donated $1.2 million ladowntownnews.com/news/geoff-pal…
Next on the list is John Kruger. He's a big donor to right-wing Christian schools focused on getting them government cash.
He originally tried to hide the $500,000 he donated to the recall effort behind a corporation named after a Bible verse, Proverbs 3:9. ...
He originally tried to hide the $500,000 he donated to the recall effort behind a corporation named after a Bible verse, Proverbs 3:9. ...
🧵It's go-time for the #CARecall. Here's how to ensure that we #RecallGavinNewsom:
1. VOTE! Drop your mail ballot in an official dropbox in a secure location + track online, or... california.ballottrax.net/voter/
1. VOTE! Drop your mail ballot in an official dropbox in a secure location + track online, or... california.ballottrax.net/voter/
..vote in person starting TODAY in Voters Choice Act counties, or Sep 11 in every county. You can also simply turn in your mail ballot at the polling place (then track online to make sure it was counted). Find polling places here: sos.ca.gov/elections/poll…
2. Make sure your like-minded friends/family/acquaintances vote! Don't let them get discouraged and think it's worthless. You can take their mail ballot to a dropbox for them or bring them w/you to the polling place. They're not registered? Use same-day registration at the polls.
Thread: How the California recall scheme is part of a broader conservative effort to make democracy obsolete.
This is a summary of my latest for @DiscoverFlux: flux.community/matthew-sheffi…
This is a summary of my latest for @DiscoverFlux: flux.community/matthew-sheffi…
A lot of people think that the effort by California Republicans to recall Gavin Newsom is just a ridiculous joke. It's anything but.
In fact, it's part of a decades-long conservative tradition of using legal trickery to shape the electorate so that they can with w/a minority.
In fact, it's part of a decades-long conservative tradition of using legal trickery to shape the electorate so that they can with w/a minority.
This idea was stated explicitly in 1980 by Paul Weyrich, a Christian nationalist activist who started the Heritage Foundation, ALEC, and the predecessor to the Christian Coalition.
1/ California is an overwhelmingly Democratic state. Governor Gavin Newsom won the 2018 election with 62% of voter support. As governor, he has carried out the desires of California’s overwhelmingly Democratic majority. This is how democracy is supposed to work.
2/ Naturally, Republicans oppose what Newsom has done as governor and would like to remove him from office. Under California law, the signatures of only 12% of the total number of votes cast in the previous election can trigger a recall election.
3/ As a result, California is now spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a recall election. If the recall succeeds, Newsom could be replaced with a right-wing Republican who receives only a small fraction of California voter support.
THREAD on #CARecall: I oppose recalls and impeachment on principle, that only the most egregious violations of public trust warrant removal outside of regularly scheduled elections. If @GavinNewsom were running on competently managing crises... 1/25
...and addressing the failures of state bureaucracy, I would oppose this one too. 2/25
But given that he has not addressed the crises he inherited and even made many worse with his policies, #CARecall is the only way to hold him accountable. 3/25
Also @latimes @melmason, @ScottWalker didn't beat the recall by 7 points by driving up Republican turnout.
"independents gave an edge to Walker, giving him 54 percent of their votes compared to 45 percent for Barrett." cbsnews.com/news/how-scott…
"independents gave an edge to Walker, giving him 54 percent of their votes compared to 45 percent for Barrett." cbsnews.com/news/how-scott…
"That is similar to 2010, when Walker received the votes of 56 percent of independents, and Barrett 42 percent."
"Ninety-four percent of those who said they voted for Barrett in 2010 voted for him again this year, and 94 percent of those who said they supported Walker two years ago voted for him this year as well."
One summer in college, I had an unpaid internship in DC. I went into debt paying for rent and food and was grateful when some random guy who wanted to start a website “tracking Republican lies” and knew I had worked on @alfranken’s book offered me a job.
(This was 2004, back when people cared or claimed to care about dishonesty in public discourse.)
Anyway, the guy was not hugely sophisticated, and so the arrangement was: “I’ll pay you $10 for every lie you find and debunk.”
Settled in for tonight’s Kevin-centric #CArecall debate: Kevin Faulconer (R), Kevin Kiley (R), and John Cox (R).
Larry Elder opted not to attend and Dem Kevin Paffrath won’t share the stage til next week. More in the newsletter! washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
Larry Elder opted not to attend and Dem Kevin Paffrath won’t share the stage til next week. More in the newsletter! washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
Debate's kicking off. Elder and Caitlyn Jenner were invited, as was Newsom. Newsom and Elder passed, Jenner didn't respond.
Faulconer says he's the one candidate who can appeal to all Californians (ie not just Rs), "compassionately reduced homelessness in San Diego" and "stood up to the defund the police movement and won."
