Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #changingworldorder
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If they choose to have a primarily win-win cooperative-competitive relationship, they must take into consideration what is really important to the other and try to give it to them in exchange for them reciprocating. #changingworldorder #principleoftheday (1/6) 
In that type of win-win relationship, they can have tough negotiations done with respect and consideration, competing like two friendly merchants at a bazaar or two friendly teams at the Olympics. (2/6)
If they choose to have a lose-lose mutually threatening relationship they will primarily think about how they can hurt the other in the hope of forcing the other into a position of fear in order to get what they want. (3/6)
If they choose to have a primarily win-win cooperative-competitive relationship, they must take into consideration what is really important to the other and try to give it to them in exchange for them reciprocating. #changingworldorder #principleoftheday (1/6)
In that type of win-win relationship, they can have tough negotiations done with respect and consideration, competing like two friendly merchants at a bazaar or two friendly teams at the Olympics. (2/6)
If they choose to have a lose-lose mutually threatening relationship they will primarily think about how they can hurt the other in the hope of forcing the other into a position of fear in order to get what they want. (3/6)
Having power is good because power will win out over agreements, rules, and laws all the time. #changingworldorder #principleoftheday (1/8)
When push comes to shove, those who have the power to either enforce their interpretation of the rules and laws or to overturn them will get what they want. (2/8)
It is important to respect power because it’s not smart to fight a war that one is going to lose... (3/8)
In 1971 when I was a young clerk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the United States ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. That's right, the US ran out of money. (1/6)
How? Well, back then gold was the money used in transactions between countries. Paper money, like the dollar, was like checks in a checkbook in that it had no value other than it could be exchanged for gold, which was the real money. (2/6)
At the time, the United States was spending a lot more money than it was earning by writing a lot more of these paper money checks than it had gold in the bank to exchange for them. (3/6)
To be great, countries must have strong education, which is not just teaching knowledge and skills, but also strong character, civility and work ethic. (1/8)
These are typically taught in the family, schools and religious institutions. That provides a healthy respect for rules and laws, order within society, low corruption, and enables them to unite behind a common purpose and work well together. (2/8)
As they do this, they increasingly shift from producing basic products to innovating and inventing new technologies. (3/8)
Over the last few years, three big things that hadn't happened in my lifetime prompted me to do the study that led me to publish Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. (1/6)
First, countries didn't have enough money to pay their debts, even after lowering interest rates to zero. So, their central banks began printing lots of money to do so. (2/6)
Second, big internal conflicts emerged due to growing gaps in wealth and values. This showed up in political populism and polarization between the left, who want to redistribute wealth, and the right, who want to defend those holding the wealth. (3/6)
Since the beginning of time, when governments spent much more than they took in in taxes and conditions got bad, they ran out of money and needed more, (1/4)
so they printed more, which made its value fall and made the prices of most everything, including stocks, gold, and commodities, rise. (2/4)
When central banks print a lot of money to relieve a crisis, buy stocks, gold, and commodities, because their value will rise and the value of paper money will fall. (3/4)
But “stupid” wars still happen all the time for reasons that I will explain. It is far too easy to slip into stupid wars because of a) the prisoner’s dilemma, b) a tit-for-tat escalation process, c) the perceived costs of backing down for the declining power, (1/4)
and d) misunderstandings existing when decision making has to be fast. Rival great powers typically find themselves in the prisoner’s dilemma; they need to have ways of assuring the other that they won’t try to kill them lest the other tries to kill them first. (2/4)
Tit-for-tat escalations are dangerous in that they require each side to escalate or lose what the enemy captured in the last move; it is like a game of chicken—push it too far and there is a head-on crash. (3/4)
When two competing entities each have the power to destroy the other, both must have extremely high trust that they won’t be unacceptably harmed or killed by the other. Managing the prisoner’s dilemma well, however, is extremely rare. (1/4)
While there are no rules in international relations other than those the most powerful impose on themselves, some approaches produce better outcomes than others. (2/4)
Specifically, those that are more likely to lead to win-win outcomes are better than those that lead to lose-lose outcomes. (3/4)
I want to elaborate on the common tactics used when economic and capital tools are weaponized. They have been and still are:
1. Asset freezes/seizures: Preventing an enemy/rival from using or selling foreign assets they rely on. (1/8)
1. Asset freezes/seizures: Preventing an enemy/rival from using or selling foreign assets they rely on. (1/8)
These measures can range from asset freezes for targeted groups in a country (e.g., the current US sanctions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or the initial US asset freeze against Japan in World War II) to more severe measures like unilateral debt repudiation or (2/8)
outright seizures of a country’s assets (e.g., some top US policy makers have been talking about not paying our debts to China). (3/8)
These competitions or wars reward the winners and penalize the losers, which reinforce their strengthenings or their weakenings. They vary in severity from healthy competitions to all-out wars. (1/4)
The progression tends to be from the first one on the list (trade/economic wars) toward the last one on the list (military wars), with each growing in intensity. Then, when a military hot war begins, all four of the other types of wars are applied full-on and weaponized. (2/4)
For these reasons, by monitoring the progression and intensities of the conflicts one can pretty well anticipate what is likely to come next. (3/4)
As of this writing there are varying amounts of conflict going on within different countries, as shown in this chart. (1/5)
Internal conflict is especially high in the United States, which appears to be in Stage 5 of the cycle (when there are bad financial conditions and intense conflict), while China appears to be in Stage 3 (when there is peace and prosperity). (2/5)
Changes to this measure can happen quickly—e.g., the changes that produced the Arab Spring, the conflicts in Hong Kong, internal wars in Syria and Afghanistan, recent big protests in Peru and Chile, etc.—leading to revolutionary changes in their internal orders. (3/5)
