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The German financial stability review has lots of other interesting charts. Here are the ones I found the most compelling. A thread to wake you up on a lazy black Friday.
This is the equivalent of the ECB inflation spider chart... but for corporate insolvencies. Buba keeps predicting they'll spike.. but it just does not happen. Tbh this is seriously mysterious and somehow worrying. 
And you can't blame Buba for those forecasts because we're really in extremely weird times. Here's how previous crises have looked like in terms of GDP/insolvencies.
This 2020 crisis totally inverts the GDP/insolvency regression line and makes it a >0 slope
🤪
This 2020 crisis totally inverts the GDP/insolvency regression line and makes it a >0 slope
🤪
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 03May20 wk18/19 thread 1/n
"Imagine economies re-open and go straight to trade war ?"
• Earning season (low bias?)
• Macro data keep tanking
• RiskOn wk until tariff talk, mkt reversed
• next wk NFP -21mln?
"Imagine economies re-open and go straight to trade war ?"
• Earning season (low bias?)
• Macro data keep tanking
• RiskOn wk until tariff talk, mkt reversed
• next wk NFP -21mln?
2/n couldn't resist chart above (SPX pg1), where govt reaction led to economy standstill, global CBs , esp FED "steps in" to rescue (again), stocks TINA rebound.
Chart below: Liquidity /funding stress and vola calmed down. Like a template deja-vu.
Question: re-open how slow?
Chart below: Liquidity /funding stress and vola calmed down. Like a template deja-vu.
Question: re-open how slow?
3/n wk18 mixed week, 1st half positive, 2nd half reversal (Tariff spooky). Oh by the way, for the candle stick chartists, many stock indices produced a weekly "gravestone/shooting star".
Anyways, energy sector outperforming on output cut talk.
Credits tighter on the wk overall
Anyways, energy sector outperforming on output cut talk.
Credits tighter on the wk overall
