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This was excellent, and I wanted to delay posting prior to getting a chance to digest.
$BTU now has a MC of $2.7B and share price has steadily fallen since the 'Shareholder Returns' announcement.
With $1.3B of cash and Q2 likely to meet/exceed Q1 FCF - AND - 90%+ production
$BTU now has a MC of $2.7B and share price has steadily fallen since the 'Shareholder Returns' announcement.
With $1.3B of cash and Q2 likely to meet/exceed Q1 FCF - AND - 90%+ production
Sold out for '23, I want to remind that BTU is not a proxy for a play on Coal Indexes.
The opaque nature of their sales, has pointed to multi-year agreements, which underperform indexes in 'up' markets - and might overperform indexes in 'down' markets.
The Mkt is now pricing
The opaque nature of their sales, has pointed to multi-year agreements, which underperform indexes in 'up' markets - and might overperform indexes in 'down' markets.
The Mkt is now pricing
BTU at 2021 levels when Indexes were lower, the Company was burdened with high debt loads, they had little cash, and 'future' liabilities would be dealt with FAR into the future - assuming they would be dealt with at all.
That said, I think we are massively oversold here and I'm
That said, I think we are massively oversold here and I'm
And even Richard's Bay (South Africa) thermal #coal coming along for the ride!
I don't want to jinx it, but at least looking like *most* of the shoulder season woes are behind us #CoalTwitter
I don't want to jinx it, but at least looking like *most* of the shoulder season woes are behind us #CoalTwitter
China's Climate Envoy Xie Zhenhua: Met John Kerry in Unofficial Talks. China-U.S. Climate Relations Have a Very Good History. Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan Hurt Chinese People's Feeling. Responsibility Now Lies with U.S. Side on Climate Relations.
#China #US #Taiwan #ClimateCrisis
#China #US #Taiwan #ClimateCrisis
Back to basics...
$BTU consolidation is ending, one way or another the medium term trend will now change.
Small gap but expect action here.
On watch..
$BTU consolidation is ending, one way or another the medium term trend will now change.
Small gap but expect action here.
On watch..
Doesn't look like well get a last dump to shake out longs. Many times the math on the algo Ai will use those areas with a "torperdo math" module to increase volume/move price to breaking point. Didnt here. If this performs on Monday, this will be heading higher, and fast. $BTU
$BTU looks primed to probe new near term heights. Could be headed to test multi year highs.
Flagging LT - target is the $50 zone..
Flagging LT - target is the $50 zone..
Some thoughts on BEV and coal
How much electricity does the avg BEV consume?
Avg mileage is 12785mi/year at 0,346kWh/mi
Thats 4880kWh/year per BEV (incl 10% charging loss)
Lets look at the energy mix
(1/5)
How much electricity does the avg BEV consume?
Avg mileage is 12785mi/year at 0,346kWh/mi
Thats 4880kWh/year per BEV (incl 10% charging loss)
Lets look at the energy mix
(1/5)
21,8% of US electricity is generated from coal
Thats 1063kWh per BEV per year additional demand from coal
Coal plants need 1191 pounds of coal per BEV per year to generate that (0,6tons)
But how many BEV will there be?
(2/5)
Thats 1063kWh per BEV per year additional demand from coal
Coal plants need 1191 pounds of coal per BEV per year to generate that (0,6tons)
But how many BEV will there be?
(2/5)
Mr Biden wants to have >50% BEV of all cars sold by 2030
Lately 15m cars were sold per year in the US
So the target is 7,5m additional BEV per year by 2030
That would add 4,5m tons of coal demand per year at current share in the mix
(3/5)
Lately 15m cars were sold per year in the US
So the target is 7,5m additional BEV per year by 2030
That would add 4,5m tons of coal demand per year at current share in the mix
(3/5)
News from the Ponzi front!
Apparently 1000MW of power are installed in crypto miners in Texas
Thats 8760GWh/p.a consumption
Texas total electricity generation = 430 TWh/p.a
Thats 2% of total power consumption for crypto
Texas burns 98Mt of coal/p.a
#coaltwitter
$btu
(1/3)
Apparently 1000MW of power are installed in crypto miners in Texas
Thats 8760GWh/p.a consumption
Texas total electricity generation = 430 TWh/p.a
Thats 2% of total power consumption for crypto
Texas burns 98Mt of coal/p.a
#coaltwitter
$btu
(1/3)
So currently ~2 million (!!!) tons of coal are burned a year to power crypto
Just in Texas
And it gets better
Argo will add 160MW by eoy '22 (+0,32Mt coal)
And plans to add another 600MW by 2024 (+1,2Mt coal)
And now add all those BEV that the govt wants you to buy
(2/3)
Just in Texas
And it gets better
Argo will add 160MW by eoy '22 (+0,32Mt coal)
And plans to add another 600MW by 2024 (+1,2Mt coal)
And now add all those BEV that the govt wants you to buy
(2/3)
Now this is assuming that the other sources of power can be scaled up just as fast
The reality is that there is limited availability of gas and sky high prices
Share of Renewables cant be increased as fast as needed
Old coal plants are idled and ready to go all year round
END
The reality is that there is limited availability of gas and sky high prices
Share of Renewables cant be increased as fast as needed
Old coal plants are idled and ready to go all year round
END
Some thoughts & facts on the german coal revolution
Germany is heavily dependend on russian energy imports
This graphic shows just how bad it is
The hard coal imports from Russia were 1,3 Mt in Q1'22
Coal imports to fully stop from 1st August
A 🧵(1/6)
rferl.org/a/germany-to-s…
Germany is heavily dependend on russian energy imports
This graphic shows just how bad it is
The hard coal imports from Russia were 1,3 Mt in Q1'22
Coal imports to fully stop from 1st August
A 🧵(1/6)
rferl.org/a/germany-to-s…
So from August there will be demand for non russian coal of 1,3 Mt on the already stressed international coal markets (5,2 Mt/year)
In 2021 global trade volume was 277 Mt for thermal coal so the german demand will add ~2% to global trade volume
(2/6)
reuters.com/business/energ…
In 2021 global trade volume was 277 Mt for thermal coal so the german demand will add ~2% to global trade volume
(2/6)
reuters.com/business/energ…
But wait, there is more!
Germany imports 55% of its gas from Russia
12% of all gas is used to generate electricity
But the gas is needed to keep the industry running and to keep the houses from freezing
So gas consumption needs to be cut in electricity generation
(3/6)
Germany imports 55% of its gas from Russia
12% of all gas is used to generate electricity
But the gas is needed to keep the industry running and to keep the houses from freezing
So gas consumption needs to be cut in electricity generation
(3/6)
FULL DOCUMENT: The G7 leaders communiqué | #OOTT #OATT #ONGT #CoalTwitter #Russia g7germany.de/resource/blob/…
A few gems:
G7 rewrites its own history, weakening its pledge to end "direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022" adding now an exit clause: "except in limited circumstances"
G7 rewrites its own history, weakening its pledge to end "direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022" adding now an exit clause: "except in limited circumstances"
On the Russian oil price cap, the G7 leaders agree to further talks, but (as I flagged), does NOT reach a deal:
"We task our relevant Ministers to continue to discuss these measures urgently, consulting with third countries and key stakeholders in the private sector"
"We task our relevant Ministers to continue to discuss these measures urgently, consulting with third countries and key stakeholders in the private sector"
⚡China's most-traded coking coal, coke, iron ore futures extend declines at night opening. Coking coal down 4.3%, coke down 3.8%, iron ore down 3.7%.
#coal #ironore #CoalTwitter #China
#coal #ironore #CoalTwitter #China
⚡Shanghai low sulfur fuel oil futures dop 1.7%, fuel futures down 1.6%, crude oil futures down 1.4%. #OOTT
Thinking about market booms…
Google compounding >25% a year since IPO, Facebook coming public at $100 billion dollar valuation, eventually SaaS IPO’ing at 60x sales…
Thinking back on the growth of shale more than a decade ago
Google compounding >25% a year since IPO, Facebook coming public at $100 billion dollar valuation, eventually SaaS IPO’ing at 60x sales…
Thinking back on the growth of shale more than a decade ago
Companies trading at multiples on production numbers, $2000 one bedrooms in 2013 in North Dakota, ‘Wildcat Billionaires’
Then on Black Friday 2014 the Saudi’s decided against cutting production…
I learned what it felt like to have my face ripped off 😂
Then on Black Friday 2014 the Saudi’s decided against cutting production…
I learned what it felt like to have my face ripped off 😂
Black Friday 2014 marked the start of the energy bear market for me…
Over the following years the bankruptcies piled up - Oasis, Magnum Hunter, Whiting, Chesapeake
I learned the anatomy of the ShitCo
Over the following years the bankruptcies piled up - Oasis, Magnum Hunter, Whiting, Chesapeake
I learned the anatomy of the ShitCo
What happened on yesterday's show? Let's find out!
00:00:30 @RazorOil takes the stage and talks about the converging triangle of WTI pricing that’s moving upward. #COM providing guidance and support to build conviction in the case for energy.
#COM has helped in so many ways, such as bringing $JOY / $JRNGF to my attention last year, which led to more than 200%+ returns in under six months.
$ARLP capitalizing. Follows $ARCH rip, and sets up well for $AMR $BTU and $CEIX. #coal #CoalTwitter @mfwarder @Edark94 @TwainsMustache
seekingalpha.com/news/3827316-a…
seekingalpha.com/news/3827316-a…
At year-end, Alliance (ARLP) had committed and priced 32.1mt for 2022. As of Tuesday's release, the company had committed and priced 34.2mt. However the additional 2.1mt led to a full $11.3 / 24% increase in the average revenue per ton for all of 2022 committed volumes.
The math would indicate that the incremental 2.1mt of committed sales were contracted at over $230 per ton, suggesting Alliance (ARLP) is successfully exporting thermal to the seaborn market.
$NHC $NHC.AX breaks $4 without a sweat
Buying looks to be driven by short-covering in the final 3 trading days pre-dividend and strong fundamental outlook for Australian thermal #coal
Old thread link here, so I don't traumatise my Koala friend further 😉
Buying looks to be driven by short-covering in the final 3 trading days pre-dividend and strong fundamental outlook for Australian thermal #coal
Old thread link here, so I don't traumatise my Koala friend further 😉
Interesting thread and statistics on seaborne thermal #coal
There is a lot of nuance and frictional elements in the physical supply chain to keep in mind when reading these statistics
#coaltwitter
There is a lot of nuance and frictional elements in the physical supply chain to keep in mind when reading these statistics
#coaltwitter
...and there we have it folks, Newcastle thermal #coal futures once again break $300/t in early trade 🔥🔥🔥
$NHC $WHC $YAL minting it in this environment
$NHC.AX $WHC.AX $YAL.AX
#coaltwitter
$NHC $WHC $YAL minting it in this environment
$NHC.AX $WHC.AX $YAL.AX
#coaltwitter
Dalian iron ore futures gain 4.7% in night session, coking coal futures up 2.9%, coke futures up 2.3%.
#coal #CoalTwitter #ironore #iron
#coal #CoalTwitter #ironore #iron
Shanghai INE crude oil futures rise 1.9%, low sulfur fuel oil futures rise 2.1%. #OOTT
China's most active nickel futures rise 3.5% in night session to 214,050 yuan/ton, thermal coal futures up 2.4%. #nickel #coal #CoalTwitter
Dalian coking coal futures fall 4.3% at night open, coke futures down 3.7%, iron ore futures down 3.6%, LPG futures down 3.2%, palm oil futures down 3.1%.
#coal #CoalTwitter #LPG #ironore #iron
#coal #CoalTwitter #LPG #ironore #iron
Zhengzhou thermal coal futures trim intraday gains to 0.2% vs rise of 2.4% at open. #coal #CoalTwitter
#EFT #CoalTwitter #OOTT
People are making the case that Russian #Oil and #Coal are fungible, and will make their way into global supply via eastern markets or huge discounts no matter where the war in Ukraine heads.
They will, but that’s missing the point.
Thread Time 1/n⬇️
People are making the case that Russian #Oil and #Coal are fungible, and will make their way into global supply via eastern markets or huge discounts no matter where the war in Ukraine heads.
They will, but that’s missing the point.
Thread Time 1/n⬇️
First, a lot of those barrels and tons don’t have easy 1:1 alternative markets. For instance, Europe’s thermal plants and steel mills are tailored to Russian Kuzbass, Donets, Pechora coals - buyers can adjust mixes to an extent, but…
2/n ⬇️
2/n ⬇️
that means pulling coal for a comparable blend from elsewhere on the seaborne market - not exactly easy, or cheap. Meanwhile, logistical shakeups like this make supply side shocks a lot more disruptive; see Queensland and NSW this year. Prices go ⬆️
3/n ⬇️
3/n ⬇️
JUST IN:
Crude oil futures in #China INE open up 9%, low sulfur fuel oil also rises 6.34%.
#Ironore futures up 2.7%, thermal coal advances 3%, #zinc and #aluminum rise 1.8%.
Rapeseed meal and soybean meal are running off the reason peak.
Crude oil futures in #China INE open up 9%, low sulfur fuel oil also rises 6.34%.
#Ironore futures up 2.7%, thermal coal advances 3%, #zinc and #aluminum rise 1.8%.
Rapeseed meal and soybean meal are running off the reason peak.
Crude oil futures in INE surges 11%, hitting the limit-up, low sulfur fuel oil jumps 9.4%.
#China #Futures #OOTT #inflation
#China #Futures #OOTT #inflation
Shanghai INE crude oil futures open 4.5% higher in night to 678 yuan/ton, low sulfur fuel oil futures up 2.8% #Shanghai #OOTT
China's most active thermal coal futures extend gains to 3.5% in early night session despite DEC margin requirements hikes.
#China #coal #CoalTwitter
#China #coal #CoalTwitter
JUST IN:
China's NDRC says carried out investigation of abnormal trading behavior in thermal coal futures market.
#China #coal #coalTwitter
mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MD…
China's NDRC says carried out investigation of abnormal trading behavior in thermal coal futures market.
#China #coal #coalTwitter
mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MD…
Zhengzhou thermal coal futures fall about 1%, erasing earlier gains of 2.1%.
#China #coal #coalTwitter
#China #coal #coalTwitter
$ARCH $AMR $HCC $METC #CoalTwitter
Here's a stupid 🧵 on Met Coal:
Ordinarily, steel px leads coking coal indexes, and I’d run as far as I could from the ferrous supply chain while HRC/EHR fall of a cliff (which they are).
However… 1/n
Here's a stupid 🧵 on Met Coal:
Ordinarily, steel px leads coking coal indexes, and I’d run as far as I could from the ferrous supply chain while HRC/EHR fall of a cliff (which they are).
However… 1/n
FOB AUS coking coal is trading above $430/tn (ATH’s) in the middle of china’s seasonal crude steel slump. 2/n
This is pure, unadulterated pirate booty for Met producers with the opportunity to sell into the seaborne market.
Now, I’m an idiot, and truly don’t know why seaborne met is so high right now, but it probably has something to do with this chart:
3/n
Now, I’m an idiot, and truly don’t know why seaborne met is so high right now, but it probably has something to do with this chart:
3/n
Thermal #coal setup seems supportive for now - a thread 1/
Indian coal generation is up nicely you and underlying industrial activity suggests that will continue as 2H progresses
India coal stockpiles are nose diving at the same time - implying a decent bout of restocking lies ahead post monsoon
