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An updated 🧵 on our latest report modelling #step4 of the #roadmap on 19th July 2021 🛣️🪜 with @_nickdavies @markjit & John Edmunds @cmmid_lshtm 👩💻 (published today) ... #storytime with pictures 📒📷 gov.uk/government/pub…
We were asked to model roadmap #step4 happening on 19th July with:
▶️ different vaccine effectiveness vs. Delta δ B.1.617.2
▶️ different transmission levels after step 4
We used the same #agestructured #compartmental #deterministic model as before
▶️ different vaccine effectiveness vs. Delta δ B.1.617.2
▶️ different transmission levels after step 4
We used the same #agestructured #compartmental #deterministic model as before
This time, we ran *a lot* of model fits, shoutout @PushoverApp.
We fitted the transmissibility (TX) of δ relative to α given (central and optimistic) assumptions on vaccine effect 💉
We also produced model fits w/ combinations of:
🌘 waning immunity🌖
😣 severity of delta 🏥
We fitted the transmissibility (TX) of δ relative to α given (central and optimistic) assumptions on vaccine effect 💉
We also produced model fits w/ combinations of:
🌘 waning immunity🌖
😣 severity of delta 🏥
