Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #connectingthedots
Most recents (12)
1 - #ConnectingTheDots The Bloomberg economist consensus for January is out
Expectations are for a "hot" month-on-month number, that annualises at ~5-6%
A significant step-up from recent prints
Expectations are for a "hot" month-on-month number, that annualises at ~5-6%
A significant step-up from recent prints
2 - What's the reason?
Simple - many fees, bills and contracts reset in January (example below)
Inflation was very high last year, so this seasonal effect should be very pronounced this year
Simple - many fees, bills and contracts reset in January (example below)
Inflation was very high last year, so this seasonal effect should be very pronounced this year
3 - Meanwhile, underlying inflation trends continue to weaken
1- #ConnectingTheDots The Fed meeting yesterday was hawkish, both the statement and Powell's press conference
The movement of FOMC members' dots - their view on high rates need to go - illustrates this well
The movement of FOMC members' dots - their view on high rates need to go - illustrates this well
2- This was contrary to my expectations, as "leaks" suggested ambiguity that the market would have read dovish
3- As you know, my view is that of a slowing economy, and in fact a "hard landing", as the US consumer runs out of savings
A problematic context given the global debt load
A problematic context given the global debt load
1- #ConnectingTheDots Markets & the economy
Let's start with the economy: There is an abundance of signs now pointing to a "hard landing"
Near term US Retail data tracks very poorly...
Let's start with the economy: There is an abundance of signs now pointing to a "hard landing"
Near term US Retail data tracks very poorly...
2- ...the European consumer is cutting back sharply...
3- ... and China is ravaged by Covid. This wave will blow over soon, but what remains afterwards? A property bubble with 20% vacancy rates
1- #ConnectingTheDots On Friday, the US released employment numbers
Of particular note was strong wage growth for November, +0.6% m-o-m (>7% annualised)
US bond yields should have RALLIED on this highly inflationary signal, instead they FELL
Of particular note was strong wage growth for November, +0.6% m-o-m (>7% annualised)
US bond yields should have RALLIED on this highly inflationary signal, instead they FELL
2- Now, the wage data likely wasn't an error or outlier
As @jasonfurman highlights prior months saw upwards revisions, too
As @jasonfurman highlights prior months saw upwards revisions, too
3- The US Treasury bond market is the most sophisticated asset market
No retail, no memes, mostly big institutions
Such a highly unusual "RISK-OFF" signal is worth paying attention to
So what is going on?
No retail, no memes, mostly big institutions
Such a highly unusual "RISK-OFF" signal is worth paying attention to
So what is going on?
1- #ConnectingTheDots Commodities/Oil & Gas
We are currently in the ~4th inning of an economic slowdown
We are currently in the ~4th inning of an economic slowdown
3- The world economy's last bastion, the US Consumer, shows signs of weakness
This is likely driven by lower income groups who used up their savings
This is likely driven by lower income groups who used up their savings
1- #ConnectingTheDots Checking on the US Consumer
Today we got Initial Jobless Claims, a lead datapoint for the evolution of Unemployment
They went DOWN
Today we got Initial Jobless Claims, a lead datapoint for the evolution of Unemployment
They went DOWN
2- Near-term credit card data suggests spending HELD UP through September - no sign of any deceleration at all
3- This is corroborated by recent trends in airfares...
1- #ConnectingTheDots Checking in on #Housing following recent data
Question 1: What will happen to HOUSE PRICES?
Let's keep things simple - there is a RECORD number of houses under construction...
Question 1: What will happen to HOUSE PRICES?
Let's keep things simple - there is a RECORD number of houses under construction...
2- ...the SUPPLY of new homes is near a RECORD...
3- ...affordability is tracking very POORLY...
1- #ConnectingTheDots Lots of focus on what the Fed will do next, and whether inflation comes down
That is the WRONG debate
Yes, inflation has PEAKED. Yes, it will come DOWN
But why is the 10-Year is UP, despite declining inflation expectations?
That is the WRONG debate
Yes, inflation has PEAKED. Yes, it will come DOWN
But why is the 10-Year is UP, despite declining inflation expectations?
2- Industrial data is CRATERING - Yesterday's US Composite PMI at 45, fastest contraction in 13 years
Yet, COMMODITIES and OIL trend UP
If US PMIs are at 45 and Oil is at 95 $/bbl, where will Oil be when the cycle turns UP again?
Yet, COMMODITIES and OIL trend UP
If US PMIs are at 45 and Oil is at 95 $/bbl, where will Oil be when the cycle turns UP again?
3- Add to that a ballooning US deficit in years to come
Who's gonna BUY all those bonds issued to finance it?
Banks maxed out, China/Japan reduce, who's left?
Who's gonna BUY all those bonds issued to finance it?
Banks maxed out, China/Japan reduce, who's left?
1- #Connectingthedots Today the NY Fed survey came out, which surveys local manufacturing businesses. The headline number, which is based on *current* view, looks benign. So "all is good"?
2- That's the lazy view - there is plenty more detail! Businesses are also asked about their views 6 months from now, and that outlook is dire:
New Orders on a mult-year low indicate very weak business going forward:
New Orders on a mult-year low indicate very weak business going forward:
3- Prices paid drop visibly. This has historically been a lead indicator for CPI. It corroborates my view that inflation will likely come down markedly soon
Tracing for the #RealMoses Standby. BIG Thread. 🔥 🔥 🔥
#ConnectingTheDots
We will read the scriptures literally as we connect the dots.
Moses’ mother was a Levite, Jochebed (Yo'Cheved, Numbers 26:59), which means, "Yahweh’s honour" or “Yahweh is glory” (NOBSE Study Bible Name List&Jones' Dictionary of Old Testament Proper Names).
We will read the scriptures literally as we connect the dots.
Moses’ mother was a Levite, Jochebed (Yo'Cheved, Numbers 26:59), which means, "Yahweh’s honour" or “Yahweh is glory” (NOBSE Study Bible Name List&Jones' Dictionary of Old Testament Proper Names).
2/ Moses' siblings were given in the Hebrew Scriptures as Aharown (Aaron) (Exodus 4:14) and Miryam (Miriam) (Exodus 6:20 and Numbers 26:57-59).
At the age of 40, he fled to Midian where he lived for 40 years (Exodus 2:11-15).
At the age of 40, he fled to Midian where he lived for 40 years (Exodus 2:11-15).
We will be livetweeting @PeggyBaileyDC, @hannahkatch , & Jenny Sullivan on the health's sector role in #housing starting in just a few minutes. Follow along with #ConnectingTheDots
@PeggyBaileyDC @hannahkatch We'll be starting with @PeggyBaileyDC: "We started to coalesce around the fact that zip codes determine health... It means that I didn't have control over the fact that I've lived to 47 years old & that's not fair. We don't recognize that luck enough." #ConnectingTheDots
@PeggyBaileyDC @hannahkatch There's a role in health care advocates in calling for improving people's health. -- @PeggyBaileyDC
#ConnectingTheDots
#ConnectingTheDots
#CorpScoop
@Nestle is the largest food company in the world and produces over 2000 products marketed to every possible demographic.
They are also one of the least ethical global corporations in the world.
1/
@Nestle is the largest food company in the world and produces over 2000 products marketed to every possible demographic.
They are also one of the least ethical global corporations in the world.
1/
Their efforts to market baby formula in third world nations had a devastating impact globally that led to hearings in the Senate & regulations to help curb certain practices.
The Trump admin has overturned many of these regulatory requirements, however.
#CorpScoop
2/
The Trump admin has overturned many of these regulatory requirements, however.
#CorpScoop
2/
For some background on the issue please click the provided links.
#CorpScoop #Nestle
3/
google.com/amp/s/www.theb…
#CorpScoop #Nestle
3/
google.com/amp/s/www.theb…
