Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #counterfactual

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Kamiar Mohaddes
@KamiarMohaddes
In a recent paper, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey, we develop a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (#TGVAR) to quantify the #macroeconomic effects of #Covid19: econ.cam.ac.uk/research/cwpe-… 1/n Image
Key challenges with the empirical #economic analysis of #Covid19 include the following: how to identify the shock, how to account for its non-linear effects, & how to quantify its effects while accounting for spillovers, common global factors, network effects and uncertainty. 2/n
We contribute to the literature by addressing these issues in a coherent multi-country framework. We offer an identification strategy for the #Covid19 shock considering that a synthetic control method cannot be applied in the context of a global #pandemic. 3/n
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#trade #demand #interconnections #commodity #financial #capital #uncertainty #TGVAR #infection #confidence #volatility #tourism #UnitedStates #macroeconomic #emerging #economy #China #Asian #interactions #counterfactual #SocialDistancing #economic #UK #economies

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