Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covid19Aus

NSW Health has released their epi report for the week ending 14 Jan. As I've been away for a while, this thread covers the last six weeks or so.
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Note that for the two weeks ending 31 Dec, NSW Health reported a lot of metrics for these two weeks combined. So I have needed to estimate the split between the two weeks in some places.

In the most recent wave, cases grew quite steadily up until around 10 Dec, then we had a dramatic decline (-40%) in the week ending 31 Dec (a week that includes Christmas day and boxing day). The last two weeks have seen 30% reductions in cases.

Sara

@swillsm

Our real test of strength?

Wearing masks in the West has always been physically easy for most people but psychologically much harder.
#COVID19 #CovidIsNotOver #MaskUp #COVID19Aus
1/16

Like wearing clothes, seat belts, bicycle helmets etc mask wearing can initially be a bit uncomfortable and inconvenient, requiring extra costs and efforts.

As a practice over time, with public health education and government support, mask wearing becomes habitual.
2/16

Mask wearing is hardest psychologically because Western media, primarily Murdoch and big business, have politicised and weaponised masks, exploiting millions of years of mammalian conditioning that makes non-conformity with the herd, dangerous.
3/16

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 3 December is now out.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Reported cases are up 13% this week, a bit of a slowing in the rate of growth.
I've also estimated case numbers had mandatory reporting of RATS continued (dashed line). Approx 53,000 cases compared with 37,000 actual.

NSW Health has included a graph of furloughed health care workers, which provided a good correlation to case numbers prior to scrapping mandatory RAT reporting.
Hard to read off this graph, but it indicates maybe 55,000 cases had RAT reporting continued, so similar

The COVID-19 Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute released an update of our excess mortality analysis today, covering detailed ABS data to 31 August 2022.
#COVID19Aus #ExcessMortality
Strap in folks, this is a long one...

(The blog has not quite been published yet. But I have things to do and needed to get this thread done. I'll link the blog at the end once it is published.)

As always, our excess deaths are measured relative to pre-pandemic expectations of mortality, including allowance for:
- changes in population size and age mix
- continuation of pre-pandemic mortality trends.

Read 27 tweets

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 26 Nov is now out.
A thread, where I get cranky (again)/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases up 19% in the week. As mandatory reporting of RATs was discontinued on 14 Oct, cases since then are not comparable to the earlier timeseries

@dbRaevn

Here are cases split between PCR and RATs. A rough estimate is that if RATs were still mandatory, we'd be pushing around 50,000 cases this week (rather than 33,000). (@dbRaevn usually does a more accurate estimate, utilising the info by age band.)

God's Wildcard 🩸 Pureblood 🩸Nonresident Settlor

NSW Health have released their epi report for the week ending 12 November.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW

You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases are up 60% this week, back above 20,000 for the week.
While not shown here, RAT cases more than doubled (up from 3,600 to 8,000) while PCR cases increased from 10,500 to 14,600.

PCR test positivity is still going up, at 16% this week.

Read 9 tweets

@RandomKiwiUS

@byroncclark

Napoleon Busch asked me to tag you in a tweet so you can see one of his numerous trailer/billboards
@byroncclark and Marc Leonardus a.k.a @marcdaalder of @NewsroomNZ

@CounterspinM - FACTS AND EVIDENCE, instead of govt paid elusive rhetoric and agenda ridden sensationalism

Wow... better stats than your few thousand ALLEGED You Tube followers and few hundred reactions Byron

.... and your half dozen or so reactions on twitter Daalder from your blathering tweets

Still going on about face nappy wearing in your articles Daalder....

MASKS, THE SYMBOL OF STUPIDITY

Are you double stupid Marc?
You wearing 2 face nappies here?

If you truly believe the psuedo mask bullsh¡t Daalder, THEN BY DEFAULT YOU MUST BELIEVE IN "social distancing"

Read 6 tweets

The ABS released some new data on Covid deaths today, looking at breakdowns by various demographics over the different Covid waves.
#COVID19Aus
A thread/

You can find the full report here...
abs.gov.au/articles/covid…

The ABS have reported on the following waves:
- wave 1 = March-May 2020
- wave 2 = June-Nov 2020, predominantly in Victoria
- Delta wave = July-Dec 2021
- Omicron wave = 2022, with some stats further broken down by month.

Data is based on registered death certificates.

First up, they show a table of deaths *from* covid (ie. covid was the cause of death) versus *with* covid (ie. covid was a contributing factor). But I find my own graph easier to understand 🙃
Proportion with covid increased in the Omicron wave with increased prevalence.

God's Wildcard 🩸 Pureblood 🩸Nonresident Settlor

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 5 November was released today.
I feel like I follow NSW reasonably closely, but there were a few surprises in here for me.
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Surprise #1: Cases were up 45% this week, with 14,000 cases reported.
While this is still much lower than earlier in the year, it is a lot more cases than the weekly update suggested (the last weekly update was to 3 Nov, had 12,500 cases reported, up 24% on the previous week).

Surprise #2: The number of PCR tests conducted was up a bit (10%), but positivity increased A LOT to 14%. Not good.

Read 9 tweets

@RandomKiwiUS

@marcdaalder

Hey @marcdaalder of @NZStuff and @NewsroomNZ

@covidscam2 #COVID19nz

@wef

Well Marc Leonardus a.k.a Daalder?
Why did she get a FAKE covid "vaccine"....?

.... by her FAKE grubby hands/filthy fingernails "nurse"
..... just like MANY of the other @wef / Klaus Schwab agenda ridden RIGGED "leaders" are

@covidscam2

Agenda is to totally bugger this country so all your elitist scum cohorts have a "refuge" in paradise down under Daalder?

Read 7 tweets

The Actuaries Institute COVID-19 Mortality Working group has just released our new analysis of excess mortality using detailed data to 31 July 2022.
TLDR: Another huge excess in July.
#COVID19Aus #ExcessMortality
You can find the full write-up here...
actuaries.digital/2022/11/03/cov…

Note we measure excess deaths relative to pre-pandemic expectations of mortality, including allowance for continuation of mortality improvement (around 1.5-2% pa).
Our methodology also allows for changes in the size and age mix of the population.

Actual deaths (orange diamonds) in July were again very high, and well above the 95% prediction interval (blue shading).

Baba G

@_real_babaG

🧵 on paediatric dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.

On 29th Sept 2022, TGA (#Australia ) provisionally approved a paediatric dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, COMIRNATY (tozinameran), for children aged 6 months to less than 5 years.

#COVID19
#COVID19Aus
#pfizer
#CovidVaccine

Pfizer has submitted their AusPar document which was taken into consideration to provisionally approve this COVID-19 vaccine.

Their AusPar submission (and based on which TGA has made their decision, which is to provisionally approve) is shocking!

#COVID19Aus
#Australia

A THHREE dose (3 μg) regime for children under the 5 years of age was informed by clinical study and real-world data showing a third dose was likely necessary to provide a high level of protection against Omicron variants.

#COVID19
#COVID19Aus
#pfizer
#CovidVaccine
#Australia

Read 5 tweets

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 15 October is now out.
#COVID19Aus #COVID19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Total cases were up slightly (+1%) this week.

By age band, however, cases were up 10% in the 60+ age band

Read 14 tweets

Prof Brendan Crabb AC

@CrabbBrendan

Grateful to Peter Shergold & his 3 colleagues for their COVID review "Fault Lines" released today. I have only just seen the report & so am not yet in a position to comment in detail. But I do love the 'dedication' & wish we were hearing more like that. 1/
independentcovidreview.com

At a glance, although there are some key conclusions I have some issue with, I do acknowledge it's impossible in a report like this to satisfy everyone. Most importantly, it's difficult not to be impressed by this list of recommendations. 2/

This is serious analysis & deserves to be treated as such. But it's not the only review we need, the central Q is too immense for that: With pandemics, how can we can we achieve as little disruption as possible while protecting our community from widespread death & disability? 3/

Read 4 tweets

Henry Madison

@RageSheen

I've seen some updated Covid advice from schools, following the ending of isolation requirements. All I've seen say that's the change they're making, i.e. no isolation. 'Attendance will be prioritised'. No indication of any WHS responsibility on their own part. /1 #covid19aus

Look at this rubbish from NSW: "All students, staff and visitors to school sites are strongly encouraged to wear a mask, particularly when indoors or when physical distancing is not possible." The ludicrous situation where there's a known significant health risk to staff and.../2

...students, but the best NSW Health can do is 'encourage' some action against it, because their political libertarian masters are offended by basic public health action. There has to be consequences for this deliberate infection of the entire community, and for the .../3

Read 6 tweets

Henry Madison.

@RageSheen

Dramatic waning of effectiveness of vaccines, in a public health strategy that is vaccination only. The herd of elephants in the room for our Covid ‘strategy’. UKHSA data (see link at end). Symptomatic disease first. (Experts welcome to comment!) /1 #auspol #covid19aus

This data suggests it makes little difference if you were boosted, if AZ was your first 2 shots. Effectiveness against symptomatic disease near zero after 20 weeks in both cases. This was also the vaccine given to highest risk, older Australians. /2

Pfizer followed by Pfizer booster seems even worse than no booster. A little better with Moderna booster, but remembering again many Australians are still at 2 doses of any vaccine, thanks to the previous PM’s election campaign. And 20% effectiveness either way i.e. very low. /3

Our latest analysis of excess mortality is now out, covering all cause mortality to the end of June 2022, plus COVID-19 only mortality for July-Sept.
#COVID19Aus #excessdeaths
TLDR: +11,200 excess deaths in first half of 2022 (13%)
actuaries.digital/2022/10/06/cov…

Our excess deaths are measured relative to pre-pandemic expectations of mortality.
Includes allowance for continuation of mortality improvement/decline for each cause of death.
Allows for changes in the size and age composition of the population.

Excess mortality in the month of June 2022 was again very high, almost as bad as January 2022.
Needed to change my y-axis for this one.

Read 20 tweets

In advance of our June excess mortality work coming out tomorrow, here is a thread on the latest COVID-19 data in Australia.
#COVID19Aus

Here's a table showing the various bits of data we know about COVID-19 deaths.
Note with the change to weekly reporting, I have needed to estimate surveillance deaths for the last day of Sept (last 3 days for Qld).

This thread might be a good read for some of my new followers, explaining how Covid deaths are recorded in Australia, concentrating on the difference between daily surveillance reports and the ABS statistics.

https://twitter.com/KarenCutter4/status/1552843183951712260?s=20&t=-KuTvfnljYoofwDULcGhLQ