Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covid19germany

Most recents (3)

Revisiting Feb. JAMA published study.
#COVID19

CHI 20 yr old asymptomatic patient -cluster of 6.

1st known asymptomatic transmission w/asymptomatic patient reporting NO clincial symptoms & clear CTs.

She had:
2 CTs - 1/27 & 1/31
4 PCRs w/ only 1 positive
Tracks similarly w/ prior 10 yr old asymptomatic patient cluster in separate study

EXCEPT 10 yr old asymptomatic had CT indicating COVID19 w/ "ground glass" effect.

Asymptomatic patients may or may not show evidence of disease in CT scan.
CHI asymptomatic person cluster of 5 #COVID19
Wuhan visit Jan 10.

Only 1 of 4 PCRs positive...from nasal swab only.

PCRs widely known for false negatives w/ 30-60% accuracy depending on which gov't source issues numbers.

Stealth pathogen coupled w/ inaccuracy of PCRs?
Read 27 tweets
Ich muss mal ein paar Worte zu Behindertenfeindlichkeit loswerden. Stuktureller Behindertenfeindlichkeit, ebenso wie persönlicher Behindertenfeindlichkeit.

Häufige Fehlvorstellung ist, dass man Behindertenfeindlich ist, sobald man etwas 'gegen Behinderte hat'. (1/)
Natürlich hat niemand etwas gegen Behinderte. Eigentlich.
Die meisten Menschen würden sich vermutlich eingestehen, dass sie sich in Gegenwart behinderter Menschen unsicher fühlen und gehemmt. Weil man so selten welche sieht und nicht gelernt hat, damit umzugehen. (2/)
Aber echte Abneigung? Nein!

Das sieht und hört man nur bei ganz wenigen Menschen und noch weniger würden zugeben, sie zu empfinden.

Also alles tuti, oder?

Behindertenfeindlich ist man ja nur, wenn man eben offen sagt, dass man Behinderte nicht mag?!? (3/)
Read 85 tweets
Going through the numbers released by @WHO (in turn are numbers released by China) from Jan 20th to Jan 27th.

Based on the released numbers, I did a simple analysis on the day-by-day increase in # of confirmed cases and # of dead owing to #coronavirus Image
The findings:(day2day)

1. The # of infected ⬆️ by an average factor of 1.49 ⬇️ to 1.4 *

2. The # of dead ⬆️ by an average factor of 1.68 ⬇️ to 1.6 *

3. The Death:Infected ratio is currently around 2.7 (# of deaths/100 infections)

* ⬇️ owing to conservative estimates + factors
Based on above trends:

1. The # of infected & the # of dead may reach a significant figure as early as Feb 6th *

2. The "Death:Infected Ratio" may ⬆️ sharply after Feb 2nd *

* Not posting my numbers here.

3. #nCoV is faster in it's infection rates compared to #SARS

ℹ️:@WHO
Read 173 tweets

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