Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covidnsw
Most recents (19)
On the face of it, it looks like not. However the January peak of 2,943 in hospital with COVID-19 used a different definition of "hospitalised with COVID" compared with the current wave 
Back in January, the definition of "hospitalised with COVID" was if the time between COVID symptoms and admission date was less than 28 days.
This changed on 3 Feb 2022 to be less than 14 days, resulting in less people counting as being hospitalised for COVID.
This changed on 3 Feb 2022 to be less than 14 days, resulting in less people counting as being hospitalised for COVID.
NSW Health has released it's weekly epi report, covering the period to 4 June.
A thread/
#covidAus #covidNSW
You can find the report here
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
A thread/
#covidAus #covidNSW
You can find the report here
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
Cases have fallen by 19% since last week, and this has been pretty much across the board for all age groups.
The data on numbers of people admitted to hospital or ICU has improved since two weeks ago, but there is still the backdating issue with Figure 1 (the latest week is revised upwards in the subsequent week's report).
Just yesterday Brad Hazzard told me that no one had raised concerns with him that ICU capacity in NSW was at risk. How strange that I was getting pleas for help from doctors and nurses working on the frontline in our ICUs, but the Health Minister wasn’t? Thread. #nswpol #covidnsw
ICUs in our hospitals at the epicentre of this outbreak like Westmead, Liverpool and Nepean are at breaking point. I’ve been told that one of the main issues is that there aren’t enough nurses to care for the number of Covid patients in ICU who need 1:1 care most of the time,
and that ambulances transporting Covid patients are having to be turned away.
Thought I’d be helpful and write up a little COVID digest with all the new policies coming through each day (Source: summary for Health Care Workers)
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#COVID19 #COVID19Vic #COVID19ACT #covidnsw #GladysFail
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#COVID19 #COVID19Vic #COVID19ACT #covidnsw #GladysFail
1. Lockdown extended for Greater Sydney until September, gotta wear masks outdoors in all of NSW, curfews and exercise limits for hotspot LGAs, and a permit system
2. *NSW* 📈
🚨644 new cases
🟠 71 infectious in the community
🕵️♀️506 cases still being investigated
2️⃣ cases infected in the ACT and are isolating in NSW
⚰️Sadly, 4 deaths - 3 in their 80s, 1 in their 70s.
470 people in 🏥
80 people in ICU
27 requiring ventilation🌬
🚨644 new cases
🟠 71 infectious in the community
🕵️♀️506 cases still being investigated
2️⃣ cases infected in the ACT and are isolating in NSW
⚰️Sadly, 4 deaths - 3 in their 80s, 1 in their 70s.
470 people in 🏥
80 people in ICU
27 requiring ventilation🌬
Yesterday, the NSW Premier said the state's Reff was 1.3
On today's front page, @smh showed what that really means
The paper also called out thousands of mystery cases, which are fuelling outbreaks across NSW and in other states
1/5
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
On today's front page, @smh showed what that really means
The paper also called out thousands of mystery cases, which are fuelling outbreaks across NSW and in other states
1/5
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
In general, I avoid projections like ... the plague (sorry)
But I've realised simply reporting the Reff fails a principle of data journalism - to unpack the data's implications
This lesson is thanks to the very clever tweeps I talk to here and the reporting of @normanswan
2/5
But I've realised simply reporting the Reff fails a principle of data journalism - to unpack the data's implications
This lesson is thanks to the very clever tweeps I talk to here and the reporting of @normanswan
2/5
With 470 cases / day (avg), seemingly small variations in the Reff lead to disastrously different outcomes
3/5
3/5
NSW Wild TBDs - status confirmed 🧵1/8
Each day ~30-40% of new cases are Wild TBD
Surveillance reports fill in the blanks but the data is 2-3 weeks old
Here's what they tell us ...
1. High Risk / Full Wild (daily) -
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #COVID19Aus
Each day ~30-40% of new cases are Wild TBD
Surveillance reports fill in the blanks but the data is 2-3 weeks old
Here's what they tell us ...
1. High Risk / Full Wild (daily) -
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #COVID19Aus
2/8. These charts show data from 2 sources -
- Surveillance report (solid line)
- Daily announcements - pressers / tweets (Dashed line)
The solid line extends to 25/7 (latest date in surveillance reports)
The dashed line extends to today
2. Medium Risk / Part Wild (daily) -
- Surveillance report (solid line)
- Daily announcements - pressers / tweets (Dashed line)
The solid line extends to 25/7 (latest date in surveillance reports)
The dashed line extends to today
2. Medium Risk / Part Wild (daily) -
3/8. Surveillance Reports categorise Wild data as follows:
- High risk
- Medium risk
- Low risk
These fit perfectly with the 3 categories we use:
- Full wild
- Part wild
- Isolation
3. Low Risk / Isolation (daily) -
- High risk
- Medium risk
- Low risk
These fit perfectly with the 3 categories we use:
- Full wild
- Part wild
- Isolation
3. Low Risk / Isolation (daily) -
⚫️🐦 NSW wild cases
Sunday total wilds: 72 (full + part)
🐦Full wild: 46
🏃♂️Part wild: 26
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 104
**Have made changes to this reporting. Please see footnote at end**
New daily wilds -
#covidsydney #covid19nsw #COVID19Aus #covidnsw
Sunday total wilds: 72 (full + part)
🐦Full wild: 46
🏃♂️Part wild: 26
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 104
**Have made changes to this reporting. Please see footnote at end**
New daily wilds -
#covidsydney #covid19nsw #COVID19Aus #covidnsw
7-day trend total wilds: 78 (full + part)
🐦Full wild: 48
🏃♂️Part wild: 30
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 79
🐦Full wild: 48
🏃♂️Part wild: 30
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 79
14-day sum: 1001 (full + part)
🐦Full wild: 648
🏃♂️Part wild: 353
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 998
🐦Full wild: 648
🏃♂️Part wild: 353
🏠 Iso: 86
❔ TBD: 998
My dad slipped away overnight, making him the 5th casualty of the Liverpool Hospital outbreak. A diplomat, polyglot, and gentle father, his passing lacked the warmth of the life he lived. I have been stunned by, and taken great comfort from the incredible support here. #covidnsw
We kept him at home since March last year. While my mum and I are vaccinated, he had serious health complications that prevented him from being vaccinated. Don't fall for the implied and amplified narrative that this has only affected the irresponsible or vaccine-hesitant.
Good leaders filter noise and make the right decisions at the right time. Great leaders have the knack of seeing what's coming around the corner. Poor leaders ignore evidence, make poor decisions, then evade accountability when they've lost control. #covidnsw
Is this outbreak under control?
That's the question* we're trying to answer with all this data
So let's look at Canterbury-Bankstown and Cumberland
1. The curve via @datapossum - no bend
1/6
*Q articulated perfectly by @DeadInLongRun
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
That's the question* we're trying to answer with all this data
So let's look at Canterbury-Bankstown and Cumberland
1. The curve via @datapossum - no bend
1/6
*Q articulated perfectly by @DeadInLongRun
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
3. Daily transmission sources
📍 Canterbury-Bankstown
All local: 642 (+74 today)
Under Investigation: 315 (+27 today)
3/6
📍 Canterbury-Bankstown
All local: 642 (+74 today)
Under Investigation: 315 (+27 today)
3/6
👩🏫 Covid Data Words Explainer - 'Under Investigation'
What are all these cases Under Investigation we hear about?
It's confusing bc NSW Health now announces 2 different categories of cases 'Under Investigation' that mean different things
1/6
#covidnsw #covidvic #covid19aus
What are all these cases Under Investigation we hear about?
It's confusing bc NSW Health now announces 2 different categories of cases 'Under Investigation' that mean different things
1/6
#covidnsw #covidvic #covid19aus
1. Cases with an unknown source
They indicate undetected chains of transmission - outside the households and workplaces we know about
Contact Tracers are trying to solve these over the coming days and weeks
2/6
They indicate undetected chains of transmission - outside the households and workplaces we know about
Contact Tracers are trying to solve these over the coming days and weeks
2/6
2. Cases 'under investigation' with respect to the question, were they in the community while infectious?
We data nerds call cases in community while infectious 'Wild'
So cases under investigation are Wild TBD (To Be Determined)
We data nerds call cases in community while infectious 'Wild'
So cases under investigation are Wild TBD (To Be Determined)
1,071 cases 🔎 Under Investigation in ⚫️ NSW
🧭 LGAs in hard lockdown
Canterbury-Bankstown +17 = 266
Campbelltown +15 = 50
Cumberland +14 = 137
Blacktown +6 = 70
Parramatta +2 = 44
Georges River +2 = 11
Liverpool +1 = 98
Fairfield -5 = 262
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
🧭 LGAs in hard lockdown
Canterbury-Bankstown +17 = 266
Campbelltown +15 = 50
Cumberland +14 = 137
Blacktown +6 = 70
Parramatta +2 = 44
Georges River +2 = 11
Liverpool +1 = 98
Fairfield -5 = 262
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
🧭 LGAs not in hard lockdown
Canada Bay +3 = 4
Bayside +2 = 12
Strathfield +1 = 13
Waverley +1 = 9
The Hills Shire +1 = 9
Northern Beaches +1 = 5
Sydney 13
Penrith 10
Randwick 5
Burwood 4
Ryde 4
Sutherland Shire 4
Wollongong 3
Wollondilly 3
Woollahra 2
Lane Cove 2
Canada Bay +3 = 4
Bayside +2 = 12
Strathfield +1 = 13
Waverley +1 = 9
The Hills Shire +1 = 9
Northern Beaches +1 = 5
Sydney 13
Penrith 10
Randwick 5
Burwood 4
Ryde 4
Sutherland Shire 4
Wollongong 3
Wollondilly 3
Woollahra 2
Lane Cove 2
Willoughby 2
Wingecarribee 2
Blue Mountains 1
Central Coast 1
Goulburn Mulwaree 1
Wingecarribee 2
Blue Mountains 1
Central Coast 1
Goulburn Mulwaree 1
⚫️🐦 NSW wild cases
Monday: 72 - 118
🐦 Full wild: 51
🏃♂️ Partial wild: 21
❔ TBD: 46
New daily wilds -
#covidsydney #covid19nsw #COVID19Aus #SydneyLockdown #covidnsw
Monday: 72 - 118
🐦 Full wild: 51
🏃♂️ Partial wild: 21
❔ TBD: 46
New daily wilds -
#covidsydney #covid19nsw #COVID19Aus #SydneyLockdown #covidnsw
7-day trend -
14-day sum -
Mathematically the delta strain has an R0 of at least 5 meaning it's an exponential problem that should have been nipped in the bud two weeks ago. abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0…
The Irish Gov now recommends Vitamin D supplementation as they found Vitamin D deficiency, less then 50nmol/L, results in higher instances of hospitalization
#Sydneylockdown #covidnsw
data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/…
#Sydneylockdown #covidnsw
data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/…
This has been supported by a further study by Judy et al. Those with less than 50nmol/L of Vitamin D are more likely to be hospitalised #Sydneylockdown #covidnsw
academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-a…
academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-a…
Lockdown lite?
Has Sydney's lockdown been too lax?
We have Mobility Data up to Wed 1 July. It gives a picture of people's movements in the first 5 days of #Sydneylockdown
Heads up, to understand these charts there are a few tweets of pre-reading ...
#nswcovid #covidnsw
1/9
Has Sydney's lockdown been too lax?
We have Mobility Data up to Wed 1 July. It gives a picture of people's movements in the first 5 days of #Sydneylockdown
Heads up, to understand these charts there are a few tweets of pre-reading ...
#nswcovid #covidnsw
1/9
In the middle of the y-axis, you'll see the number 0
This is the baseline of movement in the community
Baseline = the 'normal' amount of movement on a particular day of the week
Movement on Sundays is different from Wednesdays, so each day has its own normalised baseline
2/9
This is the baseline of movement in the community
Baseline = the 'normal' amount of movement on a particular day of the week
Movement on Sundays is different from Wednesdays, so each day has its own normalised baseline
2/9
Google has calculated 'normal' for each day of the week, by finding each day's median throughout a 5-week period from *3 January to 6 February 2020*
That means we need to keep in mind the seasonal and local characteristics of each state during that time of year
That means we need to keep in mind the seasonal and local characteristics of each state during that time of year
NSW cases under investigation:
🔎20 (-3 since morning)
LGAs-
Canterbury-Bankstown: 5
Cumberland: 4
Waverley: 4 (-1)
Fairfield: 3 (+1)
Strathfield: 1
Woollahra: 1
Liverpool: 1 (+1)
Sydney: 1
Georges River: 0 (-1)
Randwick: 0 (-1)
#covidnsw #covid19nsw #covidsydney #COVID19Aus
🔎20 (-3 since morning)
LGAs-
Canterbury-Bankstown: 5
Cumberland: 4
Waverley: 4 (-1)
Fairfield: 3 (+1)
Strathfield: 1
Woollahra: 1
Liverpool: 1 (+1)
Sydney: 1
Georges River: 0 (-1)
Randwick: 0 (-1)
#covidnsw #covid19nsw #covidsydney #COVID19Aus
View of cases under investigation based on true notification dates -
Canterbury-Bankstown: 5
Outbreaks compared
🗓️Day 20
For log-scale super fans (and the rest of us) - charts comparing biggest #covid19aus outbreaks
1/6 ... 7 biggest outbreaks in NSW / VIC
👙Bondi - blue (330 cases)
covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…
#covidsydney #COVID19 #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Vic
🗓️Day 20
For log-scale super fans (and the rest of us) - charts comparing biggest #covid19aus outbreaks
1/6 ... 7 biggest outbreaks in NSW / VIC
👙Bondi - blue (330 cases)
covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…
#covidsydney #COVID19 #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Vic
2/6 ... What does it look like on a log scale?
Useful bc it doesn't only show us whether cases are growing, but how quickly they're growing
#FlattenTheCurve
Useful bc it doesn't only show us whether cases are growing, but how quickly they're growing
#FlattenTheCurve
3/6 ... 'Hold the line': 3 biggest outbreaks
Shows daily cases and 7-day averages on log scale
Useful because it shows whether we are 'holding the line' against daily growth in cases
👙Bondi - blue
🌊VIC 2nd wave - light grey (took off around now)
🍺Crossroads - dark grey
Shows daily cases and 7-day averages on log scale
Useful because it shows whether we are 'holding the line' against daily growth in cases
👙Bondi - blue
🌊VIC 2nd wave - light grey (took off around now)
🍺Crossroads - dark grey
Wow, 15 locally-acquired cases in NSW. So 23-30-15
That's a huge relief for Sydney, although we won't know for sure if the outbreak is controlled for a few days yet #covidnsw #nswcovid
That's a huge relief for Sydney, although we won't know for sure if the outbreak is controlled for a few days yet #covidnsw #nswcovid
For those who made fun of the "gold standard", I'd be interested to know of anywhere in the world that ramped up testing by 8x and went from R(t) ~1.4 to R(t)<~1 in THREE DAYS
38,000 tests in one day. That's 5 tests for every 1,000 people in the state in 24 hours!
1) #COVID19 outbreak in Sydney's #NorthernBeaches is such bollocks. Fact Brad "Health" Hazzard linked it to dude in band called Nothing Too Serious is giveaway. They're taking the piss. It's like when builder tells newbie to go to hardware shop for a "long weight".
2) Clowns running ill-health system want us to believe bug erased across Oz after early Nov. "Well done Aussies. You smashed it." Remember that crap? Yet Kerry Chant herself (and other "experts") said early on they thought maybe 20% infected already. reddit.com/r/CoronavirusD…
3) So, according to her "analysis" horse bolted long ago. They keep muttering gravely about outbreaks, hot spots, super-spreaders. What a load of bollocks. Only way to accurately claim outbreak is if you had *reliable* test used on *entire* population *regularly*. #COVIDNSW
Annastacia Palaszczuk: "If we start to see even more cases coming out of New South Wales in the next couple of days, I think we should have a national cabinet meeting".
"We are getting great briefings from the chief health officers but I don't think we want to see what happened in Victoria happen in NSW and I definitely don't want to see it happening Queensland ...
