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Today we’ll look around the world at countries which have had success at suppressing covid, the delta strain in particular, and see what lessons there might be for Australia.
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#COVID19Vic #roadmap #CovidVictoria #COVID19nsw
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#COVID19Vic #roadmap #CovidVictoria #COVID19nsw
This thread follows two previous threads on why the UK, and Israel/Alberta, are poor parallels to Australia’s covid situation.
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Thread on Israel and Alberta is here.
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I'm trying very hard to understand the Burnet modeling for the VIC roadmap.
The projections seem almost absurdly pessimistic.
#CovidVictoria #CovidVic #roadmap
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premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
The projections seem almost absurdly pessimistic.
#CovidVictoria #CovidVic #roadmap
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premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
They project, if we follow the re-opening roadmap:
2202 deaths by January (says Dec in table, but clear in the plot it is end of Jan).
I integrated their daily infections, and calculate 330,000 infections from 21 Sept - 31 Jan.
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2202 deaths by January (says Dec in table, but clear in the plot it is end of Jan).
I integrated their daily infections, and calculate 330,000 infections from 21 Sept - 31 Jan.
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Per capita, that is:
51,076 cases/million = 5.1%
341 deaths/million = 0.034%
An infection fatality ratio of 0.67% (underestimated, as deaths lag cases!)
Ridiculously high for a highly vaccinated population, and comparable to IFR for no vaccination.
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51,076 cases/million = 5.1%
341 deaths/million = 0.034%
An infection fatality ratio of 0.67% (underestimated, as deaths lag cases!)
Ridiculously high for a highly vaccinated population, and comparable to IFR for no vaccination.
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