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US Q4 #GDP thoughts: Consensus = 2.0% (BBG), Atlanta Fed 1.7%; NY Fed 1.2%; Hedgeye 0.07%. A friend of mine who loves to model this stuff has 0.7%. These are QoQ SAAR numbers, this means Q3 to Q4 growth rate which is THEN ANNUALISED @HedgeyeDDale
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US Q3 GDP was 2.1%, so anything below this = slowing of growth in rate of change terms.
I don't see any upside to the above consensus number of 2.0%. I see a lot of potential downside.
The bond market in recent days is front running a combo of weak GDP growth, and #Corona
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I don't see any upside to the above consensus number of 2.0%. I see a lot of potential downside.
The bond market in recent days is front running a combo of weak GDP growth, and #Corona
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It's hard to know how much the bond market is due to GDP and how much due to Corona. Almost certainly both are having an effect on a huge reduction in 10Y yields from 1.95% (Jan 1) to 1.57% (now). This is a large move in 4 weeks!
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