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Canada Real Estate bubble (thread.)

Net demand is set to peak over the coming two years, as the millennials turn 28 this year. New demand typically peaks at the age of 29 (25-34). After that, new demand will fall off a cliff into 2030.

#RealEstate #Canada #creditbubble Image
The "Demand Model" is based on the annual number of 29-year-olds minus the number of annual deaths.
Why is this important? Japan never recovered from its real estate bubble prices are down 50%. It's occurring because the ageing population "supply" was meeting new demand. Image
New demand model.

I take the # of 29 years olds, minus new deaths, "supply." The model every year, which considers new immigration/emigration/births data.

This is a new phenomenon since Canada has an ageing populace with much of the world.

The model peaks in 2022. Image
Read 8 tweets
1/ "The global credit machine is grinding to a halt." That's why fin mkts are seizing--China was the marginal source of credit creation globally for yrs, & fin mkts depend on credit creation to keep prices high. Price discovery has been distorted for yrs.…
2/ As usual, my Saturday☕️ includes reading Doug Noland's #CreditBubbleBulletin--he has carefully chronicled colossal credit bubble for years. Historians will view his contrarian work as invaluable to understanding why things happened as they did, & not as mainstream predicted...
3/ A few nuggets I've concluded from experience+yrs of reading Doug & others who truly understand what's going on:
* Big banks aren't well-capitalized enuf to handle this; shld be raising equity capital FAST. This was clear last Fall during #repo scare--long b4 #coronavirus hit
Read 8 tweets

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