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Real Rates... don’t rise initially in a V Recovery from a Deep Recession.. the Reason u get a V is coz of Low Rates with the Rate Sensitive Consumer.
#CreditCycle
#CreditCycle
It’s simple aggregate Duration + Convexity math of Monetary + Fiscal Stimulus (Every Recession sees both).. It works a lot better at Peak Unemployment & Trough GDP than vice versa.. coz of a Mean Reverting Consumer’s Human Nature that oscillates between Fear & Greed.
The linear part is rates (duration)... the non linear part of price improvement (convexity) is a return to normalized unemployment over time that’s bridged by monetary + fiscal stimuls. This is time is a much bigger kicker coz trough is deeper.
#Reflation
#Reflation
