Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #crude_quality_matters
Most recents (8)
1. Hearing so much nonsense about there being insufficient refinery capacity globally. Lets start on capacity, The BP Statistical review showed that in 2018, 83mbpd of crude oil was refined through 100mbpd of global refining capacity. That throughput is the highest recorded by BP
2. 2022, refinery throughput is less than that, Further, in 2021, BP recorded a Global refinery capacity of nearly 102mbpd. Means there is more capacity now then in 2018 and less throughput than in 2018. Crazily there was no complaints in 2018 about the lack of refinery capacity
3. Now if we look at product cracks. they are all poor apart from Middle Distillates. What does that mean? Effectively the refinery capacity is trying its hardest to produce middle distillates but in doing so it is overproducing other products.
Thread on the impact of the #SPR releases/end on oil prices
#Oil #OOTT #COM
1-9 At first, they prevented prices from increasing. Since the demand was not rising proportionally to the increase in supplies, prices started declining, especially since the releases replaced imports
#Oil #OOTT #COM
1-9 At first, they prevented prices from increasing. Since the demand was not rising proportionally to the increase in supplies, prices started declining, especially since the releases replaced imports
2-9 As a result, the "demand" for the SPR started declining & will continue to decline gradually until it stops, probably before the whole amount is sold!
In other words, it remains to be seen if the whole amount is sold. If it does, it is mostly because #Crude_Quality_Matters
In other words, it remains to be seen if the whole amount is sold. If it does, it is mostly because #Crude_Quality_Matters
3-9 Therefore, the idea of an abrupt stop and loss of about 800 kbd may not happen, and therefore, the idea that oil prices will rise sharply as a result of ending withdrawals may not happen. Being bullish based on the idea of an abrupt loss of 800 kbd is a dangerous strategy.
Short thread:
Gien the comments I received on this post from those who are religiously bullish, it is clear that they do not know ABCs of Saudi spare capacity. So here we go:
1- Spare capacity is intended only for emergencies. The short period of high production is by DESIGN.
Gien the comments I received on this post from those who are religiously bullish, it is clear that they do not know ABCs of Saudi spare capacity. So here we go:
1- Spare capacity is intended only for emergencies. The short period of high production is by DESIGN.
2- The short periods of high production were a function of oil demand. Has nothing to do with the inability to sustain production. Once demand declined, there was no reason to continue producing at a high level.
Maintaining spare capacity is what gives KSA power in the market.
Maintaining spare capacity is what gives KSA power in the market.
Thread on the impact of attacks on #Abqaiq #oil complex in the E. province in Saudi Arabia:
1- It is difficult at this stage to assess the impact of the attacks. While no details, we have to be mindful of the gagging orders & Saudi laws governing reporting, videos, and pictures.
1- It is difficult at this stage to assess the impact of the attacks. While no details, we have to be mindful of the gagging orders & Saudi laws governing reporting, videos, and pictures.
2-Will the attacks lead to lower crude oil exports? We do not know at this stage. Will they lower production? We do not know either. What do we know? Majority of Saudi oil exports goes through Abqaiq facilities.
3-What do we know? Redundancy is common in Saudi oil facilities, especially #Abqaiq. While costly, redundancy helps in case of technical problems or attacks similar to what we have seen today. The existence of backup means the impact on production and exports is limited.
1/13 On oil & oil equity prices:
So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
2/13 As shown by Crescat Capital, this is a growth/ETF/momentum market which left commodities at 50 year relative historical lows! @crescatkevin @TaviCosta
3/13 So how do oil prices format?
Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.
However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.
However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
@anasalhajji #Crude_Quality_Matters
1. I wrote a couple of weeks ago the following tweet thread and said i would write one with regard to the heater/reboiler at the bottom and why running more light crude is not the best idea.
1. I wrote a couple of weeks ago the following tweet thread and said i would write one with regard to the heater/reboiler at the bottom and why running more light crude is not the best idea.
2. In a distillation column separation of the products is done by temperature. The temperature at the top is much lower than the temperature at the bottom. This difference causes a temperature curve along the column.
3. Each degree of temp corresponds to a particular composition of liquid/gas. So at particular points along the length of a column an outlet is placed. this is where the composition of the liquid/gas corresponds to a product. The higher in the column the lighter the composition
1. @anasalhajji @HFI_Research @pisgahpartners #Crude_Quality_Matters
Please bear with me this is another long Tweet Thread. This is about IMO and how I think refineries will react. The narrative suggests shale becuase is sweet will be more demanded. I dont think that will happen
Please bear with me this is another long Tweet Thread. This is about IMO and how I think refineries will react. The narrative suggests shale becuase is sweet will be more demanded. I dont think that will happen
2. The standard way of reducing the sulphur levels in your Fuel Oil would be to make the diet of your refineries sweeter, not lighter. You would change the crude that contains the sulphur for one with much lower levels or you blend with a less sulphurous crude.
3. Changing the crude: Now sulphur mostly comes in the medium and Heavy crudes. The problem in changing them for sweeter barrels is that there is not many produced. Medium has some but Heavy have very little.
