Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #decisiontools
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"Remember, these models are always wrong.” -@drsanjaygupta
This kind of statement reinforces our misconception of what models are: *decision tools* that give our *best estimates* of future given certain assumptions/inputs— helping us improve decision making under uncertainty.
This kind of statement reinforces our misconception of what models are: *decision tools* that give our *best estimates* of future given certain assumptions/inputs— helping us improve decision making under uncertainty.
THREAD: 👇
These models have lots of inputs, which change based on new information like states opening back up or asymptomatic transmission etc.
2/10
These models have lots of inputs, which change based on new information like states opening back up or asymptomatic transmission etc.
2/10
Updating a model doesn’t make previous projections wrong, since they were forecasts based on current information and assumptions and *SHOULD change* as new information reveals itself.
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3/9
