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We need a #profitable investment strategy. When it comes to #bitcoin, this task seems very simple: just hold and number will go up. This maxi view advocates a constant buying strategy commonly called dollar (or unit) cost averaging (#DCA/UCA). But is this the best we can do? 🧵 9

1. The annual chart above shows that, indeed, #number just keeps going up. What about those red candles though? Can we avoid losing money in the red years? Is there a #pattern to them?

The losses can be significant (56-73%) so it would be good to know what to do in those years.

2. The simple answer is that the #red candles repeat every 4 years (the 1st one is an exception: it came 1 year late late due to a lack of #bitcoin market for the first 1.5 years).

Why every 4 years? Because that's the length of the block subsidy #halving cycle (vertical lines).

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