Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #deflationary

Most recents (8)

Good morning FinTwit ๐Ÿ™‚ Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning all! ๐Ÿ˜Ž Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
This has not come as a surprise! #AUDUSD (Inflation gauge) had for a long time been flirting with LT-trendline from 2008. This was a sign of weakness in inflation - which could only play out, if Oil dropped (like the Ending diagonal suggested) #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Some analysts seem to think, that #USDJPY must decline when/if #SP500 is to decline or crash. That is not the case! Observe yellow markings #HZupdates
#USDJPY and #Gold have strong inverse relationship. Both have formed triangles since 2015. Now - main direction will continue. USDJPY towards ~154 - and Gold towards ~800 USD #HZupdates
#Gold did bottom in 2015 - but only for a bounce! A "ZigZag-pattern" is defined by A-B-C waves. A from 2011-15 = 5 waves. B from 2015-19 = Triangle (abcde). Now 5 waves down in wave C. Decline may be very strong! #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Hi #fintwit ๐Ÿ˜Ž We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
Read 22 tweets
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Good morning to all ๐Ÿ˜€Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates ๐Ÿ‘
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Hi all ๐Ÿ˜€Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears ๐Ÿ˜€ I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets

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