Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #desertrain
Most recents (24)
For comparison - here (quoted tweet) is last year's thread,There are lots of similarities with observable weather patterns & model forecasts as the two threads pertain to a similar state of the global energy balance.
The most notable differemce with the 2023 Equinox is that ENSO (the La Nina/El Nino oscillation) is moving into neutral which could result in a reduction of tropical convection and therefore less precipitation. However that is not yet cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Those following my recent #ClimateChangeNow threads will have seen a focus on the Tropical rain belt - specifically the impact of a string of hurricane's in the Eastern Pacific on increasing atmospheric water across the globe.
& on the impact in East Asia in particular.
& on the impact in East Asia in particular.
Altogether the Pacific has had six systems - five of which are hurricane's since May 22nd.
Since July 2nd there have been 3 (pictured below see also Wikipedia [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Paci….] - Bonnie 2/7, Darby 6/7 and Estelle 7/11.
Since July 2nd there have been 3 (pictured below see also Wikipedia [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Paci….] - Bonnie 2/7, Darby 6/7 and Estelle 7/11.
Two more are now predicted in the GFS supercomputer weather model, and they will become Frank and Georgette if they appear.
A satellite snapshot of planet earth over the past 24 hours. Pictorial THREAD of a day in the life of our biosphere.
Water is the source of life and this is where it comes from. It flows West near the equator and shoots out atmospheric rivers NE and SE.
Water is the source of life and this is where it comes from. It flows West near the equator and shoots out atmospheric rivers NE and SE.
Each image in this thread is fairly large [right click and select open image in a new tab to see them in greater detail.]
We begin with 24 hours over North Africa....
We begin with 24 hours over North Africa....
West Africa...
A long range image based weather forecast thread for #Ethiopia, #NorthAfrica #MiddleEast and #India...
Occasioned by my return from Ethiopia to my home in France. These first two images show #Ethiopia on June 2nd and June 7th (today). The big rains are beginning.
Occasioned by my return from Ethiopia to my home in France. These first two images show #Ethiopia on June 2nd and June 7th (today). The big rains are beginning.
These three big pictures show satellite observed cloud activity yesterday over the tropical belt in the populated hemisphere from the Western Pacific across the Indian and Atlantic Oceans to the Eastern Pacific.
The description part of this thread begins over the Indian Ocean which as you can see here - in a 16 day precipitable water forecast - is filling up with water coming in from the east.
On the basis of this GFS model forecast it looks as if the Indian Monsoon is about to begin.
On the basis of this GFS model forecast it looks as if the Indian Monsoon is about to begin.
North Africa, East Africa and Middle East Long Range Rain Update Thread: 27 March-April 13.
A forecast burst in West African / Amazon Monsoon activity noted in the Equinox Weather update is now underway, and forecasts now show #DesertRain in the Sahara & Sahel.
A forecast burst in West African / Amazon Monsoon activity noted in the Equinox Weather update is now underway, and forecasts now show #DesertRain in the Sahara & Sahel.
Here's a high resolution @NASA satellite image of the bust of monsoon water moving north east across the Sahara from the equatorial Atlantic off the West African Coast.
This burst of what is set to bring rain to Ukraine shortly.
This burst of what is set to bring rain to Ukraine shortly.
This forecast animation shows the impact of the front of this water transit event in Europe. The Saharan event is closely followed by a storm coming in from the Atlantic which will bring an end to recent very settled weather in Europe.
Something extraordinary is happening in the Middle East weather wise.
This thread begins in Ethiopia because it is playing a part in this, and will also receive rain from albeit not on the scale of what is happening to the north, in places where they are not used to this much.
This thread begins in Ethiopia because it is playing a part in this, and will also receive rain from albeit not on the scale of what is happening to the north, in places where they are not used to this much.
The thread attached here is supplementary, posted earlier it contains videos mostly from @Arab_Storms who is based in the UAE whose account is documenting #ExtremeWeather events, with a focus on the #MiddleEast
It contains videos mostly from yesterday.
It contains videos mostly from yesterday.
@Arab_Storms This thread relates to today, or more specifically the last 24 hours which has seen even greater storm activity than yesterday. This thread posted last night contains similar data to what I will be posting now about the extent and location of rainfall.
#ArabianStorms Update Thread:
A snapshot of the storms over the Middle East at their peak last night. The larger area of storms (as identified by weather radar) near the Gulf is the size of Germany. The smaller one over Mecca is twice the size of Switzerland.
A snapshot of the storms over the Middle East at their peak last night. The larger area of storms (as identified by weather radar) near the Gulf is the size of Germany. The smaller one over Mecca is twice the size of Switzerland.
Here's a video of some of that rain falling last night.
This animation shows the Gulf Coast end of the storm over night. The rain will have been continuous but radar data flow to @Zoom_Earth appears to be patchy.
Previous thread on this meta scale #ClimateChangeNow #DesertRain #ArabianStormd event now underway in the #sahara #HornOfAfrica and #middleeast can be found here >>
Follow @Arab_Storms for eyewitness video tweets of #extremeweather, with a focus on Arabia / ME. Here’s a video taken today in #KSA #SaudiArabia
The weather in the middle east is already pretty weird - but it is about to get a lot weirder.
Simulations show a spectacular monsoon driven burst of water and energy pulsing over the Arabian Peninsula, bringing rain to the entire desert land mass over the next three weeks.
Simulations show a spectacular monsoon driven burst of water and energy pulsing over the Arabian Peninsula, bringing rain to the entire desert land mass over the next three weeks.
This thread's coverage fits into our #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow #DesertRain #ArabianStorms and #WestAfricanMonsoonBurst baskets.
The animations above and below are both from this afternoon. And they show the developing weather patterns which will bring this event.
The animations above and below are both from this afternoon. And they show the developing weather patterns which will bring this event.
This is part of series of threads looking at a developing Sahara Water Transportation event (atmospheric river) which appears to be central component of this which was first noted here on December 5th (#AwesomeClimate) .
This thread contains a new supercomputer forecast for a life threatening extreme weather event across the Middle East.
This is the forecast…. For rainfall across the Arabian Peninsula of monumental proportions.
Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries need to monitor this closely.
#DesertRain #ClimateChangeNow.
Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries need to monitor this closely.
#DesertRain #ClimateChangeNow.
The forecast portion of thread begins here. It is preceded by observations over three days of the building weather event.
This is the most colossal Saharan #desertrain event I have ever observed and It is set to have significant impacts soon in the Middle East.
The water transport pathway is 11,000kms long, and powered by Jet Stream winds.
Here's a zero hour weather model plot of those winds which shows that the rain is originating in the Tropical Atlantic and the great Amazon forest's monsoon.
There is a fairly spectacular weather pattern developing over the Middle East, currently delivering rain to the Levant and Iraq.
The pattern appeared in models a couple of weeks ago and appears to be strengthening.
#OurChangingClimate
The pattern appeared in models a couple of weeks ago and appears to be strengthening.
#OurChangingClimate
A flow of water from the Amazon/Tropical Atlantic across North Africa is interacting with a stationary cut off low pressure system located over Turkey.
Here is a view of the cut off low - 24 hour satellite animation from @zoom_earth
Here is a view of the cut off low - 24 hour satellite animation from @zoom_earth
@zoom_earth Here is a close up of the other component of the weather setup - a massive stream of airborn moisture crossing the Sahara.
Extreme weather in the Nth Hemisphere due to high levels of atmospheric water in 2021 look set to be maintained into 2022. Atmospheric river activity continues to have significant consequences now, and in the forecasts.
New #OurChangingClimate thread.
New #OurChangingClimate thread.
The satellite animation above shows the weather system that produced the devastating tornadoes on Friday and Saturday in the United States.
This 16 day simulation shows a @NOAA GFS PWAT (atmospheric river) forecast beginning 12th December, which shows extreme is far from over.
This 16 day simulation shows a @NOAA GFS PWAT (atmospheric river) forecast beginning 12th December, which shows extreme is far from over.
The consequences of this ongoing collision between tropical moisture and winter is set to bring much more precipitation through to New Year, and a very white Christmas in the North East US.
Cyclone Shaheen-Gulab, currently over Oman [trans: Falcon-Rose] appears to be taking a direct path towards the Horn of Africa.
Here's the last 24 hours, during which the cyclone/hurricane has made landfall in Oman and is moving south-west into the great empty desert area of the Arabian Peninsula. #ArabianStorms #DesertRain
Here we see the last 24 hours over Ethiopia, the Horn and the south western Arabian Peninsula. [Addis is just above the "ET" in "Ethiopia" on the map. A small dot of light during the night.
It appears the US assumption that the rains are ending soon in the Middle East and Horn of Africa is incorrect.
A rainfall forecast for the #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follows.
A rainfall forecast for the #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follows.
This is the cause, the Indian Monsoon is not over yet. Here we see a 16 day forecast through till early October.
This GFS long range forecast shows a significant monsoon boost which has the capacity to bring significant rain to both the Middle East and the Horn of Africa in the coming fortnight, including a late season tropical storm to Somalia.
Today's rainfall/weather update for the #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follows.
The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
Here is the long-range GFS model PWAT forecast for the Indian Monsoon. Towards the end it strengthens and we see high levels of moisture heading for the #HornOfAfrica.
Here is a big picture view of the greater region including all the areas that this weekly bulletin will cover.
A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.
Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
A brief pictorial thread of parts of the northern hemisphere where extreme or unusual weather phenomena are underway.
Starting with #eastasia #infa & #3rdStorm which seems to have initiated formation. This is the storm which will crash #Olympics2021, shortly after the opening.
Starting with #eastasia #infa & #3rdStorm which seems to have initiated formation. This is the storm which will crash #Olympics2021, shortly after the opening.
The 1st animation is 120 hours. This version goes for 11 days longer. As on #infa’s path beyond 120 hours, what happens beyond July 26th is pretty uncertain. #infa is also continuously not behaving as expected, totes normal for a heat engine of this magnitude.
Heading west a few thousand miles the lingering impact of the #ArabianMomsoonBurst is set to continue for some time bringing thunderstorms to the Arabian peninsula on a daily basis. See @Arab_Storms for video reports.
Dear Ethiopian Twitter followers, and those from the wider region I have been covering with rainfall forecasts for the past few months.
I will no longer be doing these daily. But that does not mean they will stop altogether, as I am hooked on the changing weather in your region.
I will no longer be doing these daily. But that does not mean they will stop altogether, as I am hooked on the changing weather in your region.
The image above is this from this morning's satellite pass. And it was the only bit visible through he cloud near the Ethiopian highlands which have been the focus of this effort. I suspect all of Ethiopia was covered but we can't see the bit in the black strip, not certain.
The reason for stopping the daily forecasts is, of course, the filling of the #GERD, that was why they started. But they led to so much more.
Today one of the things I originally started looking for happened in a spectacular way. This is a live rainfall image from 8.15 am today.
Today one of the things I originally started looking for happened in a spectacular way. This is a live rainfall image from 8.15 am today.
Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.
The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC.
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
The presentation of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst has changed dramatically today with the consolidation of activity over the Arabian Peninsula into a single huge storm which is currently moving into the Red Sea over Makkah and Jeddah.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The scale of the storm over Islam's holiest city is huge, larger than France. Two more huge storms loom over the greater region tonight. One on the Iranian Gulf coast and another supercell thunderstorm complex over New Delhi/Rajastan, India, the size of the United Kingdom.
The last six hours in three animations, first India which is experiencing a massive monsoon day today in the north.
[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
Today is possibly the apex of this #ArabianMonsoonBurst which began several days ago now. It's hard to imagine it getting bigger than this.
Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
The animation above is for 12 hours hence the arriving and departing light effect. As always the engine behind this is the Indian Monsoon which you can see here this morning gathering strength.
A close up from the end of today shows how the big storms over #SaudiArabia are generating new atmospheric rivers of moisture, or plumes, over the Sahara, you can see these top right.
[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
The magnitude of #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now apparent. A major storm is about to cross the Red Sea and arrive in the #HornOfAfrica. Behind it are two enormous super-cell thunderstorms.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The rain activity shown in the @zoom_earth animation preceding is only radar based, Saudi radar, and in this case is complementary to the @Meteoblue satellite rainfall estimates you see below. There is likely significantly more rainfall in this than you see here.
Here we see India (the heart of this Monsoon), this morning to 10am East Africa Time. I.E. around seven hours ago.
