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1/8: Do not expect Berlin (Merkel et al) to allow any EU v. Belarus/Russia sanctions to limit its energy alliance with Moscow (e.g., #Nordstream2). Rather: given Berlin’s Russia geostrategy, Lukashenko’s #BelarusHighjacking (like Putin’s #alexeinavalny
2/8: poisoning, #Ukraine invasions, gas crises, cyber-attacks, etc.) only FORTIFY Berlin’s rationale for partnering on #Nordstream2. One must take #ChncellorMerkel’s & German political and business elites’ words & deeds seriously: Preserving Germany’s
3/8: commercial-geopolitical gas alliance with Putin to (i) replace #Ukraine/ #Belarus/ #Poland transit and (ii) make Germany #Gazprom’s new gas hub into Europe is not an “error in judgement;” but Berlin’s conscious, deeply held GEOSTRATEGY. That is:
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