Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #doitall
Most recents (9)
@dgurdasani1 Yes and idea it will evolve to mild is based on 4 coronaviruses. 229E + NL63 may have a common ancestory around the year 1100.
+ we don't know for sure any were originally serious or if so how long they took to become mild.
My summary:
Graphic from ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
+ we don't know for sure any were originally serious or if so how long they took to become mild.
My summary:
Graphic from ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
@dgurdasani1 Timescale of 1-2 years comes from flu, a very different virus. Some think the pandemic in 1889 was OC43 but evidence is weak, could easily be just another flu pandemic. Polio, smallpox, measles, don't change virulence after decades of evolution. No experience from coronaviruses.
@dgurdasani1 If OC43 was always mild and pandemic in 1889 was flu - that eliminates the only observational evidence for rapid loss of virulence.
We noticed SARS / COVID / MERS because serious.
Suppose HKU1 was recent and always mild?
+ COVID could be the exception.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
We noticed SARS / COVID / MERS because serious.
Suppose HKU1 was recent and always mild?
+ COVID could be the exception.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Westminster gov. failed to bring the virus under control & is now preparing to remove the last few remaining measures that inhibit it from spreading even more widely amongst our only partially vaccinated population.
International COVID experts respond:
International COVID experts respond:
Almost 50,000 cases per day
Only half fully vaccinated.
Expect many millions infected over summer.
UK gov. has chosen to do this even though we have effective vaccines.
We ask experts to respond
Only half fully vaccinated.
Expect many millions infected over summer.
UK gov. has chosen to do this even though we have effective vaccines.
We ask experts to respond
New Zealand: Always looked to UK for leadership
Remarkable depth of scientific knowledge.
Remarkable clinical trials we are drawing on.
Incredible development of vaccines & rollout.
Astounded you are doing this despite amazing expertise you have in UK.
Remarkable depth of scientific knowledge.
Remarkable clinical trials we are drawing on.
Incredible development of vaccines & rollout.
Astounded you are doing this despite amazing expertise you have in UK.
The BBC tell us
1. exit wave is inevitable - FALSE
2. COVID is seasonal - during huge summer surge!
4. opening up now relieves pressure on the NHS in winter -higher estimates for summer hospitalization surge similar to H1N1 peak!
A mass of logical absurdities.
1. exit wave is inevitable - FALSE
2. COVID is seasonal - during huge summer surge!
4. opening up now relieves pressure on the NHS in winter -higher estimates for summer hospitalization surge similar to H1N1 peak!
A mass of logical absurdities.
We are 50% unvaccinated. We need to finish that vaccination and also vaccinate down to adolescents - that's an extra 2 days for each year group at 400,000 doses a day. That gives far better immunity than natural infection and we are better prepared for the winter.
That's 2 days per age group for first dose then the same again 3 weeks later. Then we have masks, test trace isolate, physical distancing, ventilation, #DOITALL in ways that have no impact on economy as we open up carefully. Meanwhile by autumn we have vaccines that target delta.
Latest government modelling of effect of step 4 of the road map. Very dependent on behaviour after July 19. If quickly go back to behaviour before pandemic, similar to January peak or higher.
This shows hypothetical effect of no interventions, no test trace, isolate, no personal behaviour changes to stop pandemic.
R amongst non vaccinated people.
blue = 7, purple = 5.5, green = 4.5, yellow = gradual change of R to 4.5.
Left =optimistic about vaccine effectiveness
R amongst non vaccinated people.
blue = 7, purple = 5.5, green = 4.5, yellow = gradual change of R to 4.5.
Left =optimistic about vaccine effectiveness
From: gov.uk/government/pub…
So sad. India states are reluctant to act, some ruled out doing lockdowns, all they are doing is night time curfews, not enough, and in Delhi a 6 day lockdown. Yet every state has exponential growth of COVID and many will be in the same situation as Delhi within a few weeks.
Vaccination will make a huge difference, but India has many weeks to months before it has widespread vaccination. The UK and Israel show where it is headed once there is widespread vaccination. 10 days after 1st dose for vaccines to start working.
ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co… and worldometers.info/coronavirus/co… and worldometers.info/coronavirus/co… for the cases per day.
1/ Re-sharing this thorough systematic review & meta-analysis of % asymptomatic infection & asymptomatic /presymptomatic/ symptomatic transmission of #SARSCOV2 - @nicolamlow & co
journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a…
journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a…
2/ (Preprint of this has been available for some time, & peer-review paper available in Sept) but re-sharing to make a few points still critical today.
We have a long way to go, but we can #ControlCOVID
hear me out 👇
We have a long way to go, but we can #ControlCOVID
hear me out 👇
3/ Review addressed 3 questions:
1️⃣what proportion of cases never experience symptoms at all during their infection?
Findings: Estimate 20% (95%CI 17–25)
1️⃣what proportion of cases never experience symptoms at all during their infection?
Findings: Estimate 20% (95%CI 17–25)
1/All are so impt but we cannot stress enough the importance of:
1) isolation of all cases, preferably in medical facility for care. But can be done at home w/ right precautions
2) quarantine of contacts, preferably outside of the home. If not, can be with precautions at home
1) isolation of all cases, preferably in medical facility for care. But can be done at home w/ right precautions
2) quarantine of contacts, preferably outside of the home. If not, can be with precautions at home
2/ without isolation of cases AND quarantine of contacts, the virus will spread.
➡️😷alone cannot prevent spread
➡️Testing alone cannot spread
➡️👋hygiene alone cannot prevent spread
➡️Good ventilation alone cannot prevent spread
➡️physical distancing alone cannot prevent spread
➡️😷alone cannot prevent spread
➡️Testing alone cannot spread
➡️👋hygiene alone cannot prevent spread
➡️Good ventilation alone cannot prevent spread
➡️physical distancing alone cannot prevent spread
3/ We cannot & should not become over reliant on any one measure.
It will not work.
All countries have tools right now and they must be used.
All countries have highly motivated people who want to protect themselves & others.
We can do this together.
We must.
We will.
It will not work.
All countries have tools right now and they must be used.
All countries have highly motivated people who want to protect themselves & others.
We can do this together.
We must.
We will.
We have the tools right now to control #COVID19
👉Test, isolate & treat all cases
👉Trace & quarantine contacts
👉Train & protect health workers
👉Inform, empower & listen to communities
👉Avoid the 3Cs
👉Physical distancing, masks where appropriate, clean ✋
#DoItAll
1/3 @WHO
👉Test, isolate & treat all cases
👉Trace & quarantine contacts
👉Train & protect health workers
👉Inform, empower & listen to communities
👉Avoid the 3Cs
👉Physical distancing, masks where appropriate, clean ✋
#DoItAll
1/3 @WHO
Hard work & sacrifices are required by us all
#ControllingCOVID19 means societies can open safely, people can receive the life saving medical care they need, schools can open safely, businesses can resume ...
We have tools to live our lives while staying safe ...
@WHO
2/3
#ControllingCOVID19 means societies can open safely, people can receive the life saving medical care they need, schools can open safely, businesses can resume ...
We have tools to live our lives while staying safe ...
@WHO
2/3
With all of our help, we will get through this
Many countries are successfully controlling #COVID19. They are ready to quickly identify & manage cases & clusters before they become large outbreaks
Interventions can be targeted, tailored & time limited
#StayStrong
@WHO
3/3
Many countries are successfully controlling #COVID19. They are ready to quickly identify & manage cases & clusters before they become large outbreaks
Interventions can be targeted, tailored & time limited
#StayStrong
@WHO
3/3
