Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #dotplot

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My thoughts into #FederalReserve meeting..let's recap:
Last Fed Meeting:Nov 3rd-Fed announces tapering to begin (as expected)
Nov 22nd:Biden nominates Powell for another term
Nov 30th:Powell testifies in Congress and indicates "transitory" is gone&may accelerate taper (cont'd)
This 11/30 testimony was in the wake of new COVID wave (Omicron)&investors assumed Powell would take note of that (didn't)
Yes,there is a #dotplot coming today (last one September)Fed Fund Futures have already done the work (2-3 hikes in 2021)1st hike late spring '22 (cont'd)
since 11/3:we have seen 2yr yields move from low .40's to high .60's & 10yr yields from 1.60's to 1.40's (2/10 spread narrowing dramatically); we have also seen several high inflation prints (CPI/PPI),low jobless claims & unfortunately a major acceleration in COVID cases (cont'd)
Read 6 tweets
Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
Lets talk about the upcoming 1st meeting of the #FED #FOMC (28-29 January 2020). Specifically, lets talk about the #DOTS...
The #FED #FOMC developed the so called #DotPlot in 2011 as a chart to record each FED's official forecast for the FED's key short-term interest rate (federal funds rate - #FFR). Currently, the FFR, following the December 2019 meeting is in the target range between 1.5% and 1.75%
The most recent #DotPlot is attached below. Each dot represents one #FED official, from the Chairman to fellow Governors. It is anonymous & as such, no one knows which official is responsible for what dot...
Read 10 tweets

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