Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #dullnessdividend
Most recents (1)
Covered the recent rebound in the U.K. Pound on #r4today with @FelicityHannah - back >1.22 GBPUSD. Some brief observations. The most reliable buy signal for GBP is when broker notes entitled “parity looms” or “£ is EM currency” hit inbox. Far better than any fundamental analysis!
I’m only being slightly flippant as trading positioning/ sentiment is a far better predictive variable than any rate spread, or macro trend analysis when backtestedX A lot of guff gets written and spoken about the Pound. There are some deeper trends though…
The longer term decline in its trade weighted value has three drivers. 1) U.K. economy as a modestly shrinking % of global economy makes GBP asset ownership less essential. 2) Post GFC shrinking of UK financial sector 3) Brexit reducing expected size/ efficiency of U.K. economy
