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#ExtremeWeather #Warning #SouthEastAfrica
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
However in the rainfall forecast we can see that heavy rain is forecast for Southern Mozambique and across the the continent over the next 10 days. This animation is from earlier today before #Dumako was taken off the monitoring list.
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
This #ExtremeWeather thread on #Invest96s in the Indian Ocean is a weird one.
It began with apparent cancellation of the designation of two colliding tropical disturbances by the #JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) last night, followed by its re-designation this afternoon.
It began with apparent cancellation of the designation of two colliding tropical disturbances by the #JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) last night, followed by its re-designation this afternoon.
The re-designation wasn't by JTWC - which is having website outage issues - but rather by the RSMC, the local meteorological authorities in the Reunion & @meteofrance
"***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION"
"***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION"
If #Invest96s becomes a cyclone and intensifies, models indicate it will become the fourth cyclone to strike Madagascar in two months - possibly as the 2nd major cyclone.
It would follow #StormAna #Batsirai & #Dumako which made landfall in the north of Madagascar today.
It would follow #StormAna #Batsirai & #Dumako which made landfall in the north of Madagascar today.
Madagascar #ExtremeWeather Thread:
Yet another Indian Ocean Tropical Storm, #Dumako is forecast to make landfall in Madagascar in the next 24 hours.
And at around the same time models suggest a more dangerous Tropical Cyclone may form following closely behind.
Yet another Indian Ocean Tropical Storm, #Dumako is forecast to make landfall in Madagascar in the next 24 hours.
And at around the same time models suggest a more dangerous Tropical Cyclone may form following closely behind.
#Dumako is a relatively minor storm and is forecast to weaken on its approach but as you can see here, simulations are pointing to a more dangerous storm following closely in Dumako's wake.
The new cyclone is modelled to form as #Invest93s & #Invest96s merge.
The new cyclone is modelled to form as #Invest93s & #Invest96s merge.
At this stage this formation event is just a possibility, but if it does take place landfall will follow fairly quickly afterwards, and at the moment its track over Madagascar looks very similar to that of #Batsirai which killed over 100 people and destroyed around 100,000 homes.
