Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #embargoonrussianoil
Most recents (1)
One *super basic* thing that has been missing from the 🇷🇺 oil & gas embargo econ debate is some PERSPECTIVE.
We have seen terms like "poverty", "huge impact", particularly in 🇩🇪 (a pivotal country, so I will focus on it).
To help with perspective, some v basic charts: 1/n
We have seen terms like "poverty", "huge impact", particularly in 🇩🇪 (a pivotal country, so I will focus on it).
To help with perspective, some v basic charts: 1/n
First, 🇩🇪 annual GDP growth.
The red diamond is IMF fcast for '22, adjusted lower for the recent rise in energy prices.
The grey swathe is a range of embargo impact e.g. from @GoldmanSachs & @ben_moll @kuhnmo @MSchularick @BachmannRudi and others econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkp… 2/n
The red diamond is IMF fcast for '22, adjusted lower for the recent rise in energy prices.
The grey swathe is a range of embargo impact e.g. from @GoldmanSachs & @ben_moll @kuhnmo @MSchularick @BachmannRudi and others econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkp… 2/n
Some people have a gut feeling the impact would be more severe.
It is difficult to draw a gut feeling on the chart.
But OK, let's take 5% hit to GDP in 2022, the yellow square.
Look at this chart again. Does it look like return to poverty is likely in 🇩🇪? 3/n
It is difficult to draw a gut feeling on the chart.
But OK, let's take 5% hit to GDP in 2022, the yellow square.
Look at this chart again. Does it look like return to poverty is likely in 🇩🇪? 3/n
