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At an event held for “Global Early Warning System” efforts for extreme weather (droughts/cyclones) the night before last I had the great pleasure of meeting a delegation from Madagascar which experienced a series of 6 landfalling cyclones, several very damaging in 2021. #cop27 
One of the worst was Cyclone #Batsirai seen in the quoted thread below.
One of the apparent trends for cyclones over the past few years has been to see patterns of storms following similar routes. Providing successive shocks to vulnerable communities like Madagascar.
One of the apparent trends for cyclones over the past few years has been to see patterns of storms following similar routes. Providing successive shocks to vulnerable communities like Madagascar.
#ExtremeWeather #Emnati #TCEmnati Update:
Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.
Impact comment from RMSC/@MeteoFrance
Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.
Impact comment from RMSC/@MeteoFrance
The model guidance though is unclear (image below shows latest @ECMWF model landfall solution). The numerical model guidance is discussed from the same @MeteoFrance advisory issued at midnight.
The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas.
The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas.
@ECMWF @meteofrance Spaghetti ensemble runs below for GEFS (L) and EPS (R) (right).] These show the current trajectory disagreement clearly.
[HT to @WXNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion.
[HT to @WXNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion.
#ExtremeWeather #Warning #SouthEastAfrica
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
However in the rainfall forecast we can see that heavy rain is forecast for Southern Mozambique and across the the continent over the next 10 days. This animation is from earlier today before #Dumako was taken off the monitoring list.
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
