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The sharp decline in the US has stalled and then reversed in the past few days. If this trend continues, cases will soon begin increasing.
Chart in the second tweet shows that moving average of % change is getting close to the positive territory. (1/x)
Chart in the second tweet shows that moving average of % change is getting close to the positive territory. (1/x)
It is still a little early to call a Spring wave in the US, but signs are starting to show.
If it happens, it should not last long (likely peaking early April), and I don't expect the case peaks to be as high as the Winter numbers. (2/x)
If it happens, it should not last long (likely peaking early April), and I don't expect the case peaks to be as high as the Winter numbers. (2/x)
And this follows a trend reversal in several European countries in the past couple of weeks.
It started in Eastern Europe, but now it appears Italy and France (at least) are joining the party. (3/x)
It started in Eastern Europe, but now it appears Italy and France (at least) are joining the party. (3/x)
CDC just published a new study, in which students and staff in eight elementary schools (N = 3,300) were followed from Dec.1 to Jan.22 (holidays), cases were identified, all close contacts were tested, etc.
Full-time in-person, students sitting <3ft from each other. (1/x)
Full-time in-person, students sitting <3ft from each other. (1/x)
During this time, Cobb county reached a 7-day/avg of 577. According to guidelines by the same CDC, this is ~ 40X the number for red tier, so everyone in that county should have died by now.
They found a staggering total of 45 cases possibly transmitted within schools... (2/x)
They found a staggering total of 45 cases possibly transmitted within schools... (2/x)
Moreover, most transmission were bw. teachers or from teachers to students. There were only a few possible student to student/teacher cases.
Anyone claiming to follow the science should now safely ignore the CDC guidelines, as they seem to be anti-science. (3/x)
#openschoolsnow
Anyone claiming to follow the science should now safely ignore the CDC guidelines, as they seem to be anti-science. (3/x)
#openschoolsnow
Even though January 8th is the peak for the US as a whole, there have actually been three peaks across the states: Nov. 20th, Dec 15th, and January 12th. (-+ a week to all).
Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
Every state peaked in one of these dates, and many actually peaked in more than one of these. (1/x)
The reason why January peak is the US peak is because all the other states peaking earlier were either declining or had a second peak in January.
Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
Based on highest 7-day average in each state, yellow is the November peak, blue is January peak, and green is December peak. (2/x)
However, many states actually had multiple peaks. Even when this happened, their peaks happened on one of the three dates. See the examples below.
I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
I am not aware of any significant behavioral factor that would explain these dates across such a large area. (3/x)
I am still waiting to see one convincing explanation for the current decline in cases that does not involve seasonality.
Most epis say people began taking more precautions. When I ask for any evidence or how everyone suddenly started behaving at the same time?
Crickets... (1/4)
Most epis say people began taking more precautions. When I ask for any evidence or how everyone suddenly started behaving at the same time?
Crickets... (1/4)
A decent number mention immunity build-up with many people now infected or vaccinated, which is definitely a factor, but still not enough by itself.
That would mean prior infection rates are the same everywhere. Are you ready to admit that to be the case between GA and CA? (2/4)
That would mean prior infection rates are the same everywhere. Are you ready to admit that to be the case between GA and CA? (2/4)
Seriously, I am desperately looking for one even remotely plausible explanation. If it is not seasonality, then what?
Epis have great faith in that we are in control. But this is really nothing more than "faith" at this time, since the evidence is non-existent. (3/4)
Epis have great faith in that we are in control. But this is really nothing more than "faith" at this time, since the evidence is non-existent. (3/4)
Watch the pathetic responses (actually lack thereof) by @CDCDirector to the very good questions by @jaketapper
It is clear that she does not believe in what she is saying. If that is the case, please resign @CDCDirector . Don't facilitate the kids being held hostage... (1/x)
It is clear that she does not believe in what she is saying. If that is the case, please resign @CDCDirector . Don't facilitate the kids being held hostage... (1/x)
She says when there are cases in school:
1. It is from the community,
2. It does not get transmitted to others in schools,
So those cases will happen anyway and will not spread further in a school.
Why on earth are the school closed then?!!! (2/x)
1. It is from the community,
2. It does not get transmitted to others in schools,
So those cases will happen anyway and will not spread further in a school.
Why on earth are the school closed then?!!! (2/x)
There has been a lot of stupidity in the past year. Most were because of fear. This is different.
This is happening only because of political pressure by unions, and the damage is way deeper than any other stupid policy we have endured over the past year... (3/x)
This is happening only because of political pressure by unions, and the damage is way deeper than any other stupid policy we have endured over the past year... (3/x)
